Called the Bottom. Caught the Rally. Now the Real Test Begins.

Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, July 14–20):

 The week's core driver was the CPI + PPI double miss, which collapsed July rate hike expectations from 50% to 13% and triggered a wave of forced short covering. ETH materially outperformed BTC, with the ETH/BTC ratio recovering significantly — the most important relative price signal of the week.

II. CPI/PPI Double Miss:  Too Early to Call Disinflation

June CPI fell 0.4% MoM — the largest monthly decline since April 2020 — with YoY slowing to ~3.5% (expected 3.8%). PPI came in at 5.5% YoY (expected 6.2%), core PPI at 4.7% (expected 5.2%), MoM −0.3%. Both prints missed to the downside. September hike odds halved from fully expected (100%)  to 55%.

June CPI's decline was almost entirely driven by energy — gasoline fell roughly 10% in June because the Strait of Hormuz reopened during the US-Iran ceasefire. But Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade 

, and crude surged over 9% on the day, with Brent climbing above $87. 

The friendly CPI number looks backward; oil prices are already looking forward.

 PPI's signal is more structurally meaningful — wholesale pipeline pressure easing across the supply chain is the more reliable component of this week's data.

Day 1 (House): deliberately cautious. Asked about the CPI print, Warsh told lawmakers: "There might be some who say, 'Look, mission accomplished, everything is swell.' That is not my view." He offered no forward guidance and refused to read policy conclusions from a single data point.

Day 2 (Senate): an unexpected dovish signal. Warsh conceded AI-related demand could cause price pressures in the coming months, but declined to call it inflationary — describing it as a "one-time change in prices" with a supply response expected, which would ultimately be disinflationary. This is a meaningful softening from the FOMC minutes' language of "AI capex as a structural inflation driver," and bond yields fell further in response.

3.1 ETH: W-Bottom Confirmed, Measured Target $2,240

ETH has formed a textbook W-shaped double bottom:

The low-volume pullback is the highest-conviction element of the structure. When a breakout is followed by low-volume consolidation rather than high-volume reversal, it signals that sellers have been exhausted — holders are unwilling to sell, and overhead supply is limited.

Neckline ($1,788) + distance from neckline to base (~$288) = measured target approximately 

. This level is not arbitrary — it coincides with a historically significant dense trading zone where substantial prior cost basis is concentrated, creating both a technical and supply-side resistance wall.

The path upward is not clear — three resistance levels to work through:

3.2 BTC: Two-B Structure, Weaker Recovery, $64,000 Flips to Support

Unlike ETH's clean W-bottom, BTC formed a "Two-B" structure — two bottoms, the second one deeper.

BTC made successive new lows ($59,130 → $57,802), while ETH's two bottoms were roughly in the same zone (~$1,500–$1,550), forming the cleaner W pattern. The distinction is critical: 

under identical macro triggers, BTC fell further and recovered less — that divergence is itself a relative weakness signal.

$64,000: from strongest resistance to most important support

After breaking above $64,000 on July 14, BTC flipped the level that had capped every rally attempt for weeks. Resistance-to-support flips are among the highest-conviction signals in technical analysis — those who sold at $64,000 previously now have incentive to buy there to recover their basis, mechanically creating a support base.

But how durable this support proves to be remains to be seen. BTC already faced visible selling pressure at $65,000 this week, confirming the road above $64,000 is not clear.

 BTC has not yet reclaimed its prior recovery high of $66,400–$67,000. Until that level is cleared, the Two-B structure remains incomplete and a cautiously bearish bias is warranted above current levels.

IV. ETF Flows: Second Consecutive Week of Inflows, ETH Dominates

According to data from Sosovalue.com, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a −$424.7M outflow on Monday before posting +$500.2M in net inflows across the following four sessions; IBIT drew $204.1M for the week; competing BTC products saw a combined $128.6M in outflows — capital remains highly concentrated in BlackRock's franchise.

ETH ETFs outperformed: ETHA attracted $135.3M; ETH products accounted for 58% of total crypto ETF flows for the week; BlackRock drew $343.4M across both BTC and ETH products, while all other issuers collectively saw $162.4M in outflows.

 This is the second consecutive week of ETF net inflows — one of the bottom confirmation conditions we flagged in prior reports. But Monday's −$424.7M single-day outflow is a reminder that geopolitical shocks can reverse these trends instantly. The direction is right; the magnitude still needs to prove itself.

V. Last Week's Strategy Review: ETH Put Seller Delivered in Full

VI. This Week's Strategy: ETH Near-Dated Put Seller — Harvest Premium in a Quiet Week

 Next week's FOMC is the real event. The macro calendar this week is light — no tier-one data, no scheduled Fed communications — and that is precisely the environment where a seller strategy works best: 

no major catalyst = implied vol stays anchored = theta decays predictably = premium income is reliable.

Two independent sources of conviction reinforce the trade this week:

This also confirms the thesis we have operated on for weeks — running Put Seller on ETH has delivered consistent premium income across multiple market environments.

This week's specific trade — ETH near-dated Put Seller:

Why $1,700–$1,750 — the neckline logic:

The ETH neckline sits at ~$1,788, the keystone of the entire W-bottom structure. Placing the strike below that level at $1,700–$1,750 creates two layers of protection:

In essence, the strategy's effective stop-loss is placed at the level where the entire double-bottom structure fails — the technical framework and the options structure are aligned.

Beginner

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Bybit Options Weekly Review: Jul 14–Jul 20

FOMC Minutes: Unanimous Hold, Real Divisions. Iran Deal Declared Over. CPI Is All That Matters.

Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, July 7–13):

 XAUT settled at $4,050 (−2.7%) — one of the more telling signals of the week. The ceasefire collapse should have been a tailwind for gold, yet XAUT ended down. The explanation: rising oil prices are reinforcing rate hike expectations, and in a high real-rate environment, gold's zero-yield profile faces the same headwind as Bitcoin. The compression of all zero-yield assets — crypto and gold alike — into the same "higher-for-longer" repricing is the clearest signal yet that this is a macro-driven selldown, not a crypto-specific one.

2.1 FOMC Minutes: Split Committee, September  Hike Door Stays Open

① Unanimous hold — but the unanimity is deceptive

All participants voted to hold at 3.50%–3.75%. But the minutes reveal genuine disagreement on what comes next — some participants viewed the current rate level as sufficient, while others wanted to explicitly preserve the option for further tightening. The vote was unanimous; the outlook was not.

② AI capex named as a structural inflation driver — the most important language in the document

The minutes cited three specific inflation risk factors: tariffs, energy prices, and AI-driven demand. Defining AI capex — data center construction, compute demand — as a 

 driver is significant.  Presistent AI-driven inflation may not dissipate as the economy cools; it requires rates to stay elevated longer. Traditional monetary tightening has fundamental limitations against supply-side capex-driven inflation. This is precisely the Warsh framework we've been tracking.

③ "Firming later in 2026" language survived

Despite the June NFP miss (57K jobs vs. 113k est.) having been published after the minutes were written, the June minutes still contain explicit language leaving the door open to additional rate increases later in the year. The market had hoped for a softer read. Instead, the minutes confirmed the hawkish stance already telegraphed by the dot plot. September hike odds held near ~80% rather than cooling.

 The FOMC minutes confirmed what Warsh told us at the ECB forum - inflation is the only variable that drives rate decisions. 

2.2 Ceasefire Formally Collapsed — Geopolitical Risk Upgrades from "Friction" to "Structural Reset"

Although markets remain relatively unperturbed by the latest geopolitical flare-up,  the latest developments in the Middle East conflict feels qualitatively different from every prior Iran headline. 

Trump declared at the NATO Ankara summit: "The memorandum of understanding and the ceasefire with Iran is over, as far as I'm concerned." Both sides exchanged airstrikes. WTI crude surged 5% to over $74 a barrel; Brent crude rose 3% to approach $79.

For weeks, the market had grown partially immune to Iran headlines — every escalation/de-escalation cycle had followed a similar pattern. That immunity ends here. 

This is not friction within a ceasefire framework — this is the framework itself collapsing.

 The impact on oil prices could  be more entrenched, and the transmission to CPI may  be deeper.

The transmission channel is now actively open:

Notably, BTC's 2.5% intraday decline was roughly in line with gold's −1.6% move — the smallest crypto reaction to a major Iran shock since the conflict began, suggesting partial geopolitical desensitization. But desensitization to the shock does not remove the inflation transmission risk from elevated  oil prices feeding into future CPI prints.

III. Technical Analysis: Both Key Thresholds Failed

This week BTC made multiple attempts to hold above $64,000 (yellow dashed line), but every touch was met with selling — no confirmed daily close above the level. The weekend's ceasefire collapse pushed BTC to an intraday low of $62,600. RSI(14) at 47.58 — neutral, with no oversold support and no overbought pressure. A textbook "waiting for catalyst" consolidation structure.

The yellow rectangle on the chart ($1,800–$1,850 zone) marks the resistance band ETH has been testing since early July. ETH briefly touched $1,846 in Monday's early session before reversing sharply on the ceasefire collapse news, still stronger than BTC, consistent with ETH's recent relative outperformance — but the $1,800–$1,850 resistance band has been explicitly validated as a ceiling.

Neither threshold broken — the recovery remains a bear market relief rally in structure. 

The incoming CPI figures may serve as the nearest catalyst that could change this judgment, barring surprisingly strong policy signals from Chair Warsh who had already eschewed "forward guidance".

IV. Four Structural Headwinds: Why BTC Hasn't Broken $65,000 Despite the Weakest NFP Since 2020

The bounce happened. The structural ceiling hasn't lifted.

These four factors collectively explain why BTC, despite absorbing a 57K NFP print, has been unable to break through $65,000 on a sustained basis. Positive data can trigger short-term relief; structural headwinds cap the runway for a genuine trend reversal.

CPI is one of the most important near-term tests: a soft print partially relieves all four headwinds; a hot print compounds all four simultaneously.

V. ETF Flows: Two-Day Streak Ends, Structural Demand Unconfirmed

This is not ETF demand disappearing — it is demand halting at the first significant macro resistance. Market participation breadth and trading volumes remain subdued in the summer lull, leaving BTC highly sensitive to macro and geopolitical events. Whether the scheduled events  on July 14th restarts the inflow impulse is the most important flow observation of the cycle.

CPI (Jul 14) + PPI (Jul 15) + JPMorgan/Goldman Sachs Q2 earnings (Jul 14) — the most macro-dense 48 hours of the cycle.

VII. Strategy: ETH Put Seller — Size Down Before CPI Opens

The strategy is unchanged; the sizing discipline is everything.

Exiting completely means forfeiting Theta decay on a position that may behave well through expiry. Reducing to 50–60% of normal sizing means: if CPI is soft, the position runs and collects premium through the July 18 expiry; if CPI is hot, the reduced size limits the drawdown to a manageable level before the $1,500 ETH hard stop is triggered.

Bybit Options Weekly Review: Jul 7–Jul 13

POTUS's US$ 7.6 billion wealth: from crypto-linked investments, to A LOT of US stocks trading!

President Donald Trump made at least US$1.4 billion from crypto in 2025.

This was revealed last week via a 927-page financial disclosure by the US Office of Government Ethics.

For comparison, that US$ 1.4 billion is more than what any publicly-traded US digital asset company earned last year.

 reported a net income of US$ 1.26 billion for 2025.

Breakdown: Trump's US$ 1.4 billion crypto-linked earnings in 2025

NOTE: Most of this income were royalties from a license agreement with Celebration Coins

Trump also grew his wealth via non-crypto ventures in 2025, including:

These are President Trump's most-traded stocks in 2025:

That boils down to over 40 trades per day between January through March 2026.

, President Trump bought at least US$ 1 million of each of the following stocks:

Other trades of differing amounts involved:

 POTUS isn't letting up, already executing:

Other shares traded so far in 2026 include:

The Trump Organization says that the President's holdings are managed independently by 3rd party financial institutions.

That's more than double his worth of about US$ 3 billion when he first took office in 2017.

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author's views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.

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Crypto earned President Trump US$ 1.4 billion in 2025!

Bullish Divergence Called It. Crypto Stages a Violent Reversal. Next Week's CPI Will Settle the Debate.

Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, June 30 – July 6):

 The week's price action was entirely driven by a single data point — June NFP — which within 48 hours reframed the entire crypto market narrative from "bear market under rate-hike pressure" to "dollar weakening on soft jobs, shorts forced to cover." July 4 Independence Day holiday liquidity amplified the move, with BTC reaching $63,435 and ETH touching $1,808 at the highs.

II. Technical Picture: Bullish Divergence Delivered in Full

BTC recovered from $57,802 to $64,000 max. The technical structure is repairing:

ETH recovered from $1,550 to $1,808, a gain of +15.2%, materially outpacing BTC. 

 ETH had fallen further (approximately -20% in June), making it more oversold and mechanically more elastic on the way back up

 Heavy put positioning signals institutions are still hedging downside — this caps how far the move falls, but also means a sustained push above $1,800 requires fresh buying rather than just short covering

XAUT recovered from $3,942 to $4,173 (+4.6%) on the week, moving in sync with BTC and ETH; currently at ~$4,125. The driver: weak NFP → dollar index lower → gold/XAUT benefits. XAUT is now approximately 25% off its January high of $5,528, and also shows bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. Whether the recovery sustains remains subject to the same macro constraints — Fed policy, dollar trajectory, and bond market dynamics.

 Bullish divergence has delivered. The $57,802 low is likely the effective low for this leg with reasonably high probability. But BTC has not yet broken above the $63,500 first resistance level; whether the bounce becomes a sustained trend depends on next week's CPI/PPI data. The technical signal provides a probabilistic edge of "there is demand for a bounce" — macro data will determine how far that bounce can extend.

III. Last Week's Strategy Review: Rolling Seller + Quick-In-Quick-Out, Discipline Validated

Last week's core strategy: rolling short-dated Puts (within-7-day expiry), exiting positions at 50–70% Theta decay rather than holding to expiry, and maintaining zero open exposure into the NFP window.

 Going flat ahead of NFP was the single most important position decision of the week — sacrificing the last slice of premium income in exchange for zero exposure during BTC's maximum drawdown ($60,148 → $57,802, approximately -4%). The bullish divergence is a high-quality "zone bottom" signal, not a "precise bottom" signal — BTC still made a new low at $57,802 first, exactly consistent with last week's caveat.

4.1 The Data Is Worse Than the Headlines Suggest

The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2% — but this is a statistical illusion. The participation rate dropped from 61.8% to 61.5%, meaning more people left the workforce entirely rather than finding jobs. Leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 positions, reversing May's gains; prior months were revised down a combined 74,000. The labor market has real cracks — it just hasn't broken yet.

4.2 October Hike Odds End the Week at 62% — More Hawkish Than Before NFP

The most important macro observation of the week is not the NFP print itself, but the fact that the market digested the weakest jobs reading since 2020 and still ended the week pricing an October hike.

Warsh changed the reaction function the day before NFP. At the ECB Portugal forum on July 1, he made the Fed's new logic explicit — inflation is the only variable that matters; one weak jobs print doesn't constitute a pivot; and the October window stays open until inflation demonstrably cools. He effectively inoculated the market against the miss before it happened, despite admitting that “inflation risks have come down”.

Under Powell, weak employment automatically imported dovish expectations. Under Warsh, it doesn't - at least not yet. The pricing anchor has fully shifted to inflation data — which means 

CPI on July 14 is the first number that can genuinely move October hike odds in either direction. That is next week's story.

V. Strategy sells 3,588 BTC to fund preferred dividends

Saylor confirmed via X on July 6: Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million to fund distributions on its Digital Credit preferred securities, under the Board-approved BTC Monetization Program. Holdings now stand at 843,775 BTC with $2.55 billion in USD reserves. BTC briefly dropped below $62,000 on the news before recovering.

Unlike the unexplained 32-BTC sale in May, this sale is disclosed, structured, and recurring — tied directly to preferred dividend obligations. The mechanism is transparent; yet the implication is not: Strategy's stack is no longer purely accumulative, and the market now has a new variable to price every reporting cycle — how large is the next sale, and when.

This week is a data vacuum — no CPI or PPI. The real event is next week:

 CPI (July 14) and PPI (July 15) will directly reset Fed pricing and determine whether the current recovery holds. This week is the calm before that storm — ETH Put Seller can run relatively undisturbed through July 13, at which point position sizing should be reduced to 50%–60% of normal ahead of the CPI print.

VIII. Strategy: ETH Put Seller — Relatively Calm Window Before CPI

Strategy rotation: No Trade (last week, pre-NFP flat) → ETH Put Seller (this week, ETH DVOL 53%)

Reference Structure (illustrative — actual strikes and premiums depend on live IV at entry):

Bybit Options Weekly Review: Jun 30–Jul 6

Although BTC sank to its lowest prices since 2024, yet 2 tokens outperformed their peers.

For global financial markets, the first half of 2026 was primarily framed by the Middle East conflict.

Soaring oil prices fed upside inflation risks, which sent the US dollar (DXY index) to a one-year high that weighed down EM assets and 

Yet, US equities, and even cryptos, remained resilient throughout the conflict.

 however tumbled, even as the conflict moved towards the ceasefire off-ramp.

By late-June, the world’s biggest crypto had posted its lowest levels in nearly 2 years (since September 2024).

At the time of writing, Bitcoin remains over 50% below its all-time high, creating a larger gap below the psychological $60k level.

 as 1H26 also featured these dramatic declines:

To be sure, broader risk sentiment had to endure some rough patches in the first half of the year.

Valuation fears surrounding mega-cap tech and AI-linked stocks triggered episodes of de-risking out of US equities. 

Yet, stocks have been able to rebound back towards record highs.

On the other hand, cryptos were further plagued by idiosyncratic factors, including the 

 - the largest Bitcoin digital asset treasury firm, that heaped more downward pressure on this asset class.

Crypto’s underperformance relative to a basket of macro assets is best seen below:

The aggressive spot price selloffs have had a notable impact on options markets.

BTC’s at-the-money implied volatility, a forward-looking measure of the expected volatility of an asset over a specific period of time, jumped towards 103% in early February — matching levels seen during November 2022.

That jump in forward-looking volatility expectations was at least partly driven by realized volatility — the volatility delivered by spot prices jumping to levels last seen in March 2025 during the US tariff saga.

Subsequent events in the year, such as the US-Iran conflict and Strategy’s Bitcoin sale did not see volatility spike as high, though nonetheless punctuated periods of sideways volatility, when markets expected quieter times ahead (such as the May year-to-date low in ATM IV).

For most of the year, in options markets, downside protection has been priced at a significant implied volatility premium to OTM calls — brief periods of spot recovery have been unable to drive a meaningful skew back towards call options.

While the rout in digital assets has, for the most part, been broad-based, specific segments of the market have outperformed.

“We will see a further flight to fundamental value: altcoins with their own regulatory wrapper and those with innovative ecosystems that stand to gain the most from continued regulatory friendliness are likely to see inflows, creating a further bifurcated market.”

One asset in particular which fits that description is Hyperliquid’s native 

HYPE has been supported by a number of factors:

Since launch on June 1, 2026, have seen $189M in net inflows. 

That’s equivalent to 1.35% of HYPE’s total market cap, compared to other altcoin ETFs such as XRP spot ETFs which hold 2.1% of XRP’s total market cap and spot Solana ETFs which hold 2.8% of SOL’s total market cap

Rising protocol volumes have directly translated into higher fee generation which has been used to support token buybacks.

Hyperliquid’s buyback assistance program allocates 97% of protocol revenue towards repurchasing HYPE tokens.

 is ending 1H26 with a year-to-date gain of about 12%.

TRON has outperformed many major cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2026 as investors reward its 

The network remains a leading blockchain for USDT (Tether) transfers, processing enormous volumes of low-cost stablecoin payments that generate consistent on-chain activity and protocol revenue.

Currently, markets fully expect at least one Fed rate hike by end-2026, with another 1-in-3 chance of a 2nd Fed rate hike in 2H26.

The lack of forward guidance could see more volatility on FOMC meet days.

Any follow-through on the implied hawkish tilt (i.e. rate hikes) and reiterated dedication to the inflation mandate could potentially act as a headwind for risk-on assets, including crypto.

Seasonal patterns suggest fiscal support has tended to increase around mid-term election cycles and has historically been supportive of risk-on assets.

Though it remains to be seen however if a potential reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet as Warsh has advocated will shift more focus to the fiscal policy of the US Treasury.

Still, markets stand ready to price in the election outcomes, and whether it results in a more crypto-friendly Congress or not.

Further developments in the US regulatory environment certainly warrants vigilance among the crypto community, especially around the CLARITY Act - the most comprehensive US crypto market-structure bill ever to clear a chamber of Congress.

Regulatory developments have long played an important role in shaping sentiment across crypto markets, often becoming the dominant narrative as they unfold.

Although final passage in both chambers is being pencilled in for September or later, it remains to be seen whether crypto prices will have enough momentum then, or attention bandwidth even, to react to such major progress for the industry.

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.

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Review: Crypto’s dismal 1H26, and what you need to watch in 2H26

PCE Runs Hot But Gold Rips Higher. AHR999 Hits Below 0.3 — A Historic Extreme. BTC/ETH Both Flash Bullish Divergence.

Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, updated June 29):

II. Technical Deep Dive: Bullish Divergence and Its Options Application

This is the week's most important chart story — two charts, one conclusion.

BTC's RSI(14) reading 33.79. The chart reveals two key structures:

ETH's RSI(14) reading 31.72. The structure closely mirrors BTC:

probabilistic momentum signal, not a guaranteed reversal signal.

 It tells us "downside pressure is weakening" — it does not tell us "when" a rally happens or "how much" it might move. Historically, divergences resolve in three ways: 

Options application — selling Puts near support:

If the judgment is that near-term support (BTC ~$59,979–$60,000, ETH ~$1,500) has a low probability of being decisively broken, selling Puts near that level is an efficient way to convert a probability judgment into yield — more capital-efficient than holding spot outright, and safer than a naked short Call.

But two critical limits must be made explicit:

1. Bullish divergence provides no extra protection against a fresh fundamental shock.

 The market is still simultaneously navigating Warsh's communication paradigm shift and the fragility of the Lebanon situation — if either deteriorates suddenly, this RSI divergence chart gets run straight through; a "clean-looking" divergence structure earns no exemption.

2. Selling a Put collects premium, but underwrites the full downside risk if support breaks.

 Divergence offers a "probably won't break" edge — it offers zero protection on "how far it falls if it does."

Conclusion: selling Puts near support is a reasonable approach, but it is a bet that the divergence holds with high probability. Position sizing should stay conservative, with explicit stop conditions defined for a support breakdown — divergence is not a license to size up with confidence.

III. The AHR999 Index: A Historically Extreme Bottom-Fishing Reading

Based on Bitcoin's current price and a 200-day DCA cost basis (C200) of $75,821, the AHR999 bottom indicator reads approximately 0.287 — an extreme undervaluation zone. The year-to-date low was 0.27, set on February 6, 2026.

Statistically, an AHR999 reading below 0.3 is an extremely rare signal, typically appearing only during systemic panic or major bear-market bottoms. Historically, the indicator broke below 0.3 during the early 2011 market, the 2018 bear-market bottom (a low of roughly 0.24), the 2020 COVID flash crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse and associated ETH liquidation cascade.

(current price ÷ 200-day DCA cost) × (current price ÷ exponential growth valuation estimate)

. A reading below 0.3 means two things are simultaneously true:

This cross-validates the RSI divergence covered in Section II:

 one is a momentum indicator, the other a valuation indicator, and both point in the same direction — "current levels are historically an extreme undervaluation zone." But neither tells us "when" a rebound happens or "whether price makes new lows first." In the 2018 and 2022 cases, the market took weeks to months of further probing lower after AHR999 first broke below 0.3 before genuinely confirming the bottom.

The Data: PCE rose 4.1% YoY (prior: 3.8%); core PCE hit 3.4% — the hottest reading since fall 2023. Oil prices driven by the US-Iran conflict were the headline driver, but the parallel rise in core PCE signals the pressure goes beyond energy.

Why did hot data trigger a rally? Markets had already fully priced it in, with short positioning turning crowded. Once the data landed as expected, the logic flipped: uncertainty resolved → shorts covered en masse, dip-buyers rushed in. Nasdaq futures +2.37%, S&P +0.81%, gold +0.53%. A textbook "sell-the-news" short-term pulse.

Implication for crypto: This rally resolves "near-term uncertainty" — it does not resolve the "medium-to-long-term high-rate constraint." A short pulse, not a trend reversal.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June nonfarm payrolls report on July 2; the market expects 113,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate.

 Analysts note that if the data surprises to the upside, it could further cement market expectations for a Fed rate hike.

Three data points warming up ahead of NFP:

Ahead of the payrolls release, the market gets three additional reads on labor market momentum:

These four data points arrive in rapid succession over three days, progressively sketching out the full picture of June's labor market.

Equally important: Warsh's international debut

The ECB's central banking forum will be held in Portugal from June 29 to July 1, bringing together global central bank officials to discuss accelerating growth, AI, and financial stability. 

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