Although BTC sank to its lowest prices since 2024, yet 2 tokens outperformed their peers.

For global financial markets, the first half of 2026 was primarily framed by the Middle East conflict.

Soaring oil prices fed upside inflation risks, which sent the US dollar (DXY index) to a one-year high that weighed down EM assets and 

Yet, US equities, and even cryptos, remained resilient throughout the conflict.

 however tumbled, even as the conflict moved towards the ceasefire off-ramp.

By late-June, the world’s biggest crypto had posted its lowest levels in nearly 2 years (since September 2024).

At the time of writing, Bitcoin remains over 50% below its all-time high, creating a larger gap below the psychological $60k level.

 as 1H26 also featured these dramatic declines:

To be sure, broader risk sentiment had to endure some rough patches in the first half of the year.

Valuation fears surrounding mega-cap tech and AI-linked stocks triggered episodes of de-risking out of US equities. 

Yet, stocks have been able to rebound back towards record highs.

On the other hand, cryptos were further plagued by idiosyncratic factors, including the 

 - the largest Bitcoin digital asset treasury firm, that heaped more downward pressure on this asset class.

Crypto’s underperformance relative to a basket of macro assets is best seen below:

The aggressive spot price selloffs have had a notable impact on options markets.

BTC’s at-the-money implied volatility, a forward-looking measure of the expected volatility of an asset over a specific period of time, jumped towards 103% in early February — matching levels seen during November 2022.

That jump in forward-looking volatility expectations was at least partly driven by realized volatility — the volatility delivered by spot prices jumping to levels last seen in March 2025 during the US tariff saga.

Subsequent events in the year, such as the US-Iran conflict and Strategy’s Bitcoin sale did not see volatility spike as high, though nonetheless punctuated periods of sideways volatility, when markets expected quieter times ahead (such as the May year-to-date low in ATM IV).

For most of the year, in options markets, downside protection has been priced at a significant implied volatility premium to OTM calls — brief periods of spot recovery have been unable to drive a meaningful skew back towards call options.

While the rout in digital assets has, for the most part, been broad-based, specific segments of the market have outperformed.

“We will see a further flight to fundamental value: altcoins with their own regulatory wrapper and those with innovative ecosystems that stand to gain the most from continued regulatory friendliness are likely to see inflows, creating a further bifurcated market.”

One asset in particular which fits that description is Hyperliquid’s native 

HYPE has been supported by a number of factors:

Since launch on June 1, 2026, have seen $189M in net inflows. 

That’s equivalent to 1.35% of HYPE’s total market cap, compared to other altcoin ETFs such as XRP spot ETFs which hold 2.1% of XRP’s total market cap and spot Solana ETFs which hold 2.8% of SOL’s total market cap

Rising protocol volumes have directly translated into higher fee generation which has been used to support token buybacks.

Hyperliquid’s buyback assistance program allocates 97% of protocol revenue towards repurchasing HYPE tokens.

 is ending 1H26 with a year-to-date gain of about 12%.

TRON has outperformed many major cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2026 as investors reward its 

The network remains a leading blockchain for USDT (Tether) transfers, processing enormous volumes of low-cost stablecoin payments that generate consistent on-chain activity and protocol revenue.

Currently, markets fully expect at least one Fed rate hike by end-2026, with another 1-in-3 chance of a 2nd Fed rate hike in 2H26.

The lack of forward guidance could see more volatility on FOMC meet days.

Any follow-through on the implied hawkish tilt (i.e. rate hikes) and reiterated dedication to the inflation mandate could potentially act as a headwind for risk-on assets, including crypto.

Seasonal patterns suggest fiscal support has tended to increase around mid-term election cycles and has historically been supportive of risk-on assets.

Though it remains to be seen however if a potential reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet as Warsh has advocated will shift more focus to the fiscal policy of the US Treasury.

Still, markets stand ready to price in the election outcomes, and whether it results in a more crypto-friendly Congress or not.

Further developments in the US regulatory environment certainly warrants vigilance among the crypto community, especially around the CLARITY Act - the most comprehensive US crypto market-structure bill ever to clear a chamber of Congress.

Regulatory developments have long played an important role in shaping sentiment across crypto markets, often becoming the dominant narrative as they unfold.

Although final passage in both chambers is being pencilled in for September or later, it remains to be seen whether crypto prices will have enough momentum then, or attention bandwidth even, to react to such major progress for the industry.

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.

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Review: Crypto’s dismal 1H26, and what you need to watch in 2H26

PCE Runs Hot But Gold Rips Higher. AHR999 Hits Below 0.3 — A Historic Extreme. BTC/ETH Both Flash Bullish Divergence.

Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, updated June 29):

II. Technical Deep Dive: Bullish Divergence and Its Options Application

This is the week's most important chart story — two charts, one conclusion.

BTC's RSI(14) reading 33.79. The chart reveals two key structures:

ETH's RSI(14) reading 31.72. The structure closely mirrors BTC:

probabilistic momentum signal, not a guaranteed reversal signal.

 It tells us "downside pressure is weakening" — it does not tell us "when" a rally happens or "how much" it might move. Historically, divergences resolve in three ways: 

Options application — selling Puts near support:

If the judgment is that near-term support (BTC ~$59,979–$60,000, ETH ~$1,500) has a low probability of being decisively broken, selling Puts near that level is an efficient way to convert a probability judgment into yield — more capital-efficient than holding spot outright, and safer than a naked short Call.

But two critical limits must be made explicit:

1. Bullish divergence provides no extra protection against a fresh fundamental shock.

 The market is still simultaneously navigating Warsh's communication paradigm shift and the fragility of the Lebanon situation — if either deteriorates suddenly, this RSI divergence chart gets run straight through; a "clean-looking" divergence structure earns no exemption.

2. Selling a Put collects premium, but underwrites the full downside risk if support breaks.

 Divergence offers a "probably won't break" edge — it offers zero protection on "how far it falls if it does."

Conclusion: selling Puts near support is a reasonable approach, but it is a bet that the divergence holds with high probability. Position sizing should stay conservative, with explicit stop conditions defined for a support breakdown — divergence is not a license to size up with confidence.

III. The AHR999 Index: A Historically Extreme Bottom-Fishing Reading

Based on Bitcoin's current price and a 200-day DCA cost basis (C200) of $75,821, the AHR999 bottom indicator reads approximately 0.287 — an extreme undervaluation zone. The year-to-date low was 0.27, set on February 6, 2026.

Statistically, an AHR999 reading below 0.3 is an extremely rare signal, typically appearing only during systemic panic or major bear-market bottoms. Historically, the indicator broke below 0.3 during the early 2011 market, the 2018 bear-market bottom (a low of roughly 0.24), the 2020 COVID flash crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse and associated ETH liquidation cascade.

(current price ÷ 200-day DCA cost) × (current price ÷ exponential growth valuation estimate)

. A reading below 0.3 means two things are simultaneously true:

This cross-validates the RSI divergence covered in Section II:

 one is a momentum indicator, the other a valuation indicator, and both point in the same direction — "current levels are historically an extreme undervaluation zone." But neither tells us "when" a rebound happens or "whether price makes new lows first." In the 2018 and 2022 cases, the market took weeks to months of further probing lower after AHR999 first broke below 0.3 before genuinely confirming the bottom.

The Data: PCE rose 4.1% YoY (prior: 3.8%); core PCE hit 3.4% — the hottest reading since fall 2023. Oil prices driven by the US-Iran conflict were the headline driver, but the parallel rise in core PCE signals the pressure goes beyond energy.

Why did hot data trigger a rally? Markets had already fully priced it in, with short positioning turning crowded. Once the data landed as expected, the logic flipped: uncertainty resolved → shorts covered en masse, dip-buyers rushed in. Nasdaq futures +2.37%, S&P +0.81%, gold +0.53%. A textbook "sell-the-news" short-term pulse.

Implication for crypto: This rally resolves "near-term uncertainty" — it does not resolve the "medium-to-long-term high-rate constraint." A short pulse, not a trend reversal.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June nonfarm payrolls report on July 2; the market expects 113,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate.

 Analysts note that if the data surprises to the upside, it could further cement market expectations for a Fed rate hike.

Three data points warming up ahead of NFP:

Ahead of the payrolls release, the market gets three additional reads on labor market momentum:

These four data points arrive in rapid succession over three days, progressively sketching out the full picture of June's labor market.

Equally important: Warsh's international debut

The ECB's central banking forum will be held in Portugal from June 29 to July 1, bringing together global central bank officials to discuss accelerating growth, AI, and financial stability. 

Markets will focus closely on Warsh's remarks the evening of July 1. If he maintains a hawkish tone at the forum, it would further reinforce market expectations for a Fed rate hike — and this speech happens to land squarely between JOLTS (6/30), ADP (7/1), and NFP (7/2), meaning the market will be digesting "what Warsh said" followed immediately by  "what the NFP data said" simultaneously over the following 24 hours; either thread turning hawkish could reinforce the other.

Why this round of employment data is especially sensitive:

In the current environment of renewed rate-hike fears, the logic has flipped — 

strong employment data may actually be worse for risk assets than weak data.

The core backdrop behind the FOMC's collective hawkish shift is precisely this: the labor market remains stubbornly strong and inflation concerns are reigniting. New Fed Chair Warsh has downplayed the "rate-cut narrative," prioritizing inflation-fighting and sharply raising sensitivity to any single inflation print.

This means the market will be pricing the next three days through a distorted lens where "bad news might actually be good news."

 A hot JOLTS print, a strong ADP number, payroll growth above the 113,000 consensus, or unemployment falling below 4.3% — any one of these, combined with a hawkish tone from Warsh at the forum, could create a compounding effect between the data and policy fronts, adding further pressure to zero-yield assets like BTC and ETH.

VI. Outlook for This Week (June 29 – July 5)

JOLTS (6/30) → ADP (7/1) → Warsh's Forum Speech (evening of 7/1) → NFP (7/2) — four events compressed into three days.

VII. Strategy: Rolling Seller Continues, but Heightened Vigilance

Core strategy unchanged: sell short-dated Puts near support to harvest premium. Discipline is the foundation, not confidence.

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Bybit Options Weekly Review: Jun 23–Jun 29

Prediction markets expand with CBOE and Meta; Japanese pension fund = new crypto whale?

, its new prediction markets suite, starting with binary option contracts linked to the Mini-S&P 500 Index.

The product gives traders a simplified yes-or-no structure for expressing views on the 

, while keeping the contracts within the established U.S.-listed options regulatory framework.

 in the coming months, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The contracts would allow customers to take yes-or-no positions on where the S&P 500 closes, paying a fixed cash settlement if the outcome is correct and nothing if it is not.

prediction markets-style app internally called Arena

, which would operate separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, according to The New York Times.

The app is expected to use a points-based system rather than real-money wagering at launch, though Meta has not ruled out eventually adding real-money betting.

 to President Trump for final approval after the House passed the bill by a wide margin.

While the legislation is primarily focused on improving housing affordability and expanding supply, it also includes a provision preventing the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC or substantially similar digital asset until the end of 2030.

an executive order aimed at strengthening U.S. preparedness for the quantum computing era

The order sets a clear federal migration timeline for post-quantum cryptography, requiring high-value government assets to transition by the end of 2030 and high-impact systems by the end of 2031.

6) The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

 in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, after the state sued Kalshi, Polymarket and others last week for allegedly operating unlicensed sports betting and gambling platforms.

The CFTC said Kentucky’s efforts to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interfere with the federal framework for national swaps markets, arguing that the agency has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

sue the CFTC over its approval of perpetual futures in the US

 — a sharp escalation in the fight over how crypto-style derivatives should be regulated.

 argues perps should be treated as swaps under Dodd-Frank, not futures, and warned that high-leverage perpetual contracts could expose retail users to products they do not fully understand.

 treasury company, said its holdings reached 

5.67M ETH, equal to 4.7% of the total ETH supply

, bringing it 94% of the way toward its “Alchemy of 5%” target.

The company reported $10.7B in crypto, cash, marketable securities and “moonshot” holdings, including $601M in cash and marketable securities, a $104M stake in Eightco Holdings, and its core 

9) Japan’s National Business Pension Fund

allocate around 1% of its assets to cryptocurrencies during fiscal year 2026

The fund, which serves roughly 1,200 small and medium-sized companies, is expected to invest through a passive fund holding multiple cryptocurrencies managed by a major hedge fund.

10) South Korea’s internet-only Toss Bank

 to test blockchain-based financial infrastructure.

The partnership will begin with a proof-of-concept for 

stablecoin-powered overseas remittances on 

, before expanding into tests with international partners and further checks around AML and KYC processes.

 halted block production on June 22 after confirming an 

exploit affecting its chain state verification and bridge message-proof validation

The team urged users to withdraw funds from all bridges deployed on Taiko and asked centralised exchanges to suspend deposits of its native token while the incident is investigated.

shutting down Alloy by Tether and ending support for aUSDT

, its gold-backed synthetic dollar product, according to its statement on Wednesday.

New minting and positions are now closed, while existing users have three months to return aUSDT and reclaim their XAUT collateral.

marking what appears to be its weakest daily close since launch.

The product is designed to behave like high-yield digital credit, using variable dividends to anchor the price near $100.

, adding to the growing list of crypto protocols unable to convert activity into sustainable economics.

The multi-chain DEX, backed by Polychain, Coinbase Ventures and Jump Crypto, cited prolonged unfavourable market conditions and insufficient revenue to keep operations running. Users have until 16 July to withdraw funds before the platform shuts down.

 is a publicly listed US materials-science and manufacturing company, traded on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker GLW.

The company is best known for its long-standing expertise in specialty glass, ceramics, optical fibre and advanced materials, with technologies used across consumer electronics, telecommunications, data centres, life sciences, automotive and industrial applications.

Corning is a long-established industrial technology qcompany with a history of innovation in glass and materials engineering.

Its products are often “behind the scenes” but strategically important:

The company operates across several major end markets.

, Corning produces optical fibre, cables and connectivity solutions used in telecom networks and high-speed data infrastructure.

 it supplies precision glass used in televisions, monitors and other screens.

 Corning is known for products such as advanced cover glass used in mobile devices and other durable glass applications.

, giving the company a diversified industrial footprint rather than reliance on a single product category.

What makes Corning particularly interesting today is its exposure to the infrastructure side of the AI and data-centre buildout.

As artificial-intelligence workloads expand, data centres require faster, denser and more efficient connectivity.

Optical fibre and photonics are increasingly important because they can help move large volumes of data with lower latency and less heat than traditional copper-based systems.

Corning’s optical communications capabilities therefore position it as a potential beneficiary of rising investment in AI infrastructure, cloud computing and high-speed networking.

Corning has also been actively communicating a more ambitious growth plan to investors.

Its “Springboard” strategy is designed to increase sales, improve margins and capture demand from secular growth markets.

Management has also discussed longer-term annualised sales targets, including a path toward significantly higher revenue by the end of the decade, supported by growth in optical communications, AI-related infrastructure, display, specialty materials and other markets.

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26 June 2026: What’s New in DeFi?

Warsh's Debut, Hawkish Shock — Forward Guidance Scrapped, Crypto Repricing While US-Iran Talks Dance on a Knife's Edge.

I. The Most Important Thing This Week: Warsh Tore Up the Fed's 14-Year Communication Playbook

This was not an ordinary FOMC meeting. It was the most fundamental break in Fed communication style in over a decade.

Warsh directly dismantled the Fed's traditional 14-year communication framework, abruptly eliminating forward guidance without prior warning and leading the boycott of the dot plot — becoming the first Fed Chair since the dot plot's inception in late 2011 to refuse to submit a personal rate projection. He stated bluntly that "forward guidance doesn't suit the current economic environment," explicitly saying "I cannot give you any forward guidance on what we're going to do next."

Analysts described it this way: the old Fed statement was a roadmap; the new one is a weather report — it tells you what's happening right now and says nothing about tomorrow. For a crypto market that trades heavily on macro expectations and rate-cut hope, removing forward guidance is like pulling the rug out from under the most popular trade thesis of the past 18 months.

The dot plot details — this is where the real shock lives:

The dot plot showed 9 of 18 officials now projecting at least one rate hike before year-end 2026, with 6 projecting two — a complete reversal from March when zero officials saw hikes. The median year-end rate projection jumped from 3.4% to 3.8%, and the Fed simultaneously raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%.

the Fed flipped its narrative from "maybe cuts this year" to "maybe hikes this year" in a single quarter.

Warsh announced the formation of five task forces to study: policy communication (Standard Implementation Plan reform), balance sheet review, data sourcing and methodology, AI's impact on productivity and employment, and the inflation-driver framework. The inflation task force itself is a signal — Warsh is questioning the Fed's current analytical framework, not just the policy settings.

Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, updated June 22):

This week saw a classic "FOMC shock + geopolitical whiplash" double-stack: BTC briefly broke below $65,000 ahead of the FOMC meeting, bounced to $66,400, but once the Fed confirmed no rate cut and Warsh signaled hawkish, BTC slid again, hitting a weekly low of $62,300.

III. US-Iran Situation: Far From "Geopolitical Risk Resolved"

The first round of Switzerland talks produced a 60-day roadmap, but the situation is far more fragile than it appears:

The real implication for crypto markets: 

The geopolitical risk premium is far from eliminated — it briefly reignited this week amid strait disruptions and Trump's rhetoric. This is not a steadily resolving process; it's a high-risk standoff that can deteriorate sharply in any given week. Lebanon — the one variable neither Washington nor Tehran fully controls — remains the most critical thread to watch over the coming 60 days.

IV. Strategy and the STRC Depeg Scare: The Key Differences from Terra/Luna

This is the topic most prone to panic-driven misjudgment this week — it deserves careful clarification.

Strategy's flagship financing instrument STRC (a preferred share with an 11.5% annualized dividend, functionally similar to high-yield debt) has depegged sharply, briefly falling to $83.26. The root of market concern: Strategy's disclosure of its first BTC sale since 2022 (32 BTC, late May) raised fears the company might be forced into larger BTC sales to meet its dividend obligations — even though buying has since resumed and expanded.

STRC ≠ Terra/Luna: Three Fundamental Differences

Even in the most extreme scenario — Strategy being forced to liquidate and sell BTC — the enormous demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which absorbed roughly 400,000 BTC even during a six-month bear stretch, means the market has sufficient liquidity to digest a short-term "flash" decline and recover quickly. Longer term, this could even push the crypto market toward a healthier, more diversified credit structure — "de-Strategy-ifying" excessive reliance on a single whale's sentiment.

 Reclaiming and holding $65,000 means the hawkish shock has been digested, with recovery continuing toward $66,000–$68,000 resistance. Losing $62,000 means liquidity headwinds are winning, and the market will seek deeper support.

VI. This Week's Strategy: Roll Short-Dated ETH Puts/Calls 

This is the only specific strategy recommendation this week — designed exclusively for ETH. 

The most important discipline of this strategy: be ready to exit at any moment

Bybit Options Weekly Review: Jun 16–Jun 22

It's been an eventful week: CME sues the CFTC, new products out of BlackRock and Citigroup, even a $TON rebrand.

and its Chairman Michael Selig on Thursday (June 18), alleging the regulator bypassed Congress and broke the law by approving crypto perpetual futures contracts for rival platform Kalshi.

CME argues thata crypto perp futures should be classified as a swap under stricter oversight, not a futures contract.

The lawsuit, filed in Washington D.C., is widely viewed as a competitive fight, with CME - the world's largest futures exchange - using the courts to block an upstart rival from capturing a fast-growing, 24/7 crypto derivatives market.

A bipartisan group of senior Senate and House lawmakers — 

 — has agreed on an updated version of the 

, giving the legislation bicameral momentum and a clearer path through Congress.

While the bill is primarily focused on housing affordability and supply, it also includes language that would 

prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC

, or any substantially similar digital asset, until the end of 2030, reflecting continued political resistance to a U.S. digital dollar.

A coalition of national gaming, tribal, state and labor organizations urged the 

 to include language in crypto market structure legislation that explicitly 

bans event contracts tied to sports and casino-style gaming

The groups argued that sports-related prediction markets have expanded gambling nationwide without state or tribal authorisation, allowing some users as young as 18 to place bets and marketing gambling products as “investments.”

 for its proposed iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA), a key regulatory step that typically signals a fund is nearing launch.

The filing follows BlackRock’s recent fourth amendment to the ETF registration, which “typically means launch in one week” according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

The form set a 0.65% sponsor fee and outlined a strategy of generating yield by selling call options primarily against IBIT, the firm’s spot 

 ETF. Balchunas added that if he had to bet, “next Thursday BITA goes live.”

blockchain-based platform for wealthy and institutional clients to trade tokenised shares of private companies

, with the rollout initially limited to foreign investors, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The platform is aimed at giving clients exposure to large private companies, as investor demand builds around names such as 

 is preparing to launch a digital credit instrument for European investors, modeled on 

’s STRC and Strive’s SATA, announced at a speech at BTC Prague.

The Paris-listed company plans to use its 

 treasury as the underlying asset for a yield-focused product designed around Europe’s regulatory and tax environment. Capital B currently holds 3,139 BTC and aims to reach 15,000 BTC by the end of 2027.

Board director Alexandre Laizet said the instrument could target 

 while keeping volatility below double digits, arguing that bitcoin treasury companies can support such products through the long-term appreciation of their BTC holdings.

China’s digital yuan international operation centre, managed by the 

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