Although BTC sank to its lowest prices since 2024, yet 2 tokens outperformed their peers.

For global financial markets, the first half of 2026 was primarily framed by the Middle East conflict.

Soaring oil prices fed upside inflation risks, which sent the US dollar (DXY index) to a one-year high that weighed down EM assets and 

Yet, US equities, and even cryptos, remained resilient throughout the conflict.

 however tumbled, even as the conflict moved towards the ceasefire off-ramp.

By late-June, the world’s biggest crypto had posted its lowest levels in nearly 2 years (since September 2024).

At the time of writing, Bitcoin remains over 50% below its all-time high, creating a larger gap below the psychological $60k level.

 as 1H26 also featured these dramatic declines:

To be sure, broader risk sentiment had to endure some rough patches in the first half of the year.

Valuation fears surrounding mega-cap tech and AI-linked stocks triggered episodes of de-risking out of US equities. 

Yet, stocks have been able to rebound back towards record highs.

On the other hand, cryptos were further plagued by idiosyncratic factors, including the 

 - the largest Bitcoin digital asset treasury firm, that heaped more downward pressure on this asset class.

Crypto’s underperformance relative to a basket of macro assets is best seen below:

The aggressive spot price selloffs have had a notable impact on options markets.

BTC’s at-the-money implied volatility, a forward-looking measure of the expected volatility of an asset over a specific period of time, jumped towards 103% in early February — matching levels seen during November 2022.

That jump in forward-looking volatility expectations was at least partly driven by realized volatility — the volatility delivered by spot prices jumping to levels last seen in March 2025 during the US tariff saga.

Subsequent events in the year, such as the US-Iran conflict and Strategy’s Bitcoin sale did not see volatility spike as high, though nonetheless punctuated periods of sideways volatility, when markets expected quieter times ahead (such as the May year-to-date low in ATM IV).

For most of the year, in options markets, downside protection has been priced at a significant implied volatility premium to OTM calls — brief periods of spot recovery have been unable to drive a meaningful skew back towards call options.

While the rout in digital assets has, for the most part, been broad-based, specific segments of the market have outperformed.

“We will see a further flight to fundamental value: altcoins with their own regulatory wrapper and those with innovative ecosystems that stand to gain the most from continued regulatory friendliness are likely to see inflows, creating a further bifurcated market.”

One asset in particular which fits that description is Hyperliquid’s native 

HYPE has been supported by a number of factors:

Since launch on June 1, 2026, have seen $189M in net inflows. 

That’s equivalent to 1.35% of HYPE’s total market cap, compared to other altcoin ETFs such as XRP spot ETFs which hold 2.1% of XRP’s total market cap and spot Solana ETFs which hold 2.8% of SOL’s total market cap

Rising protocol volumes have directly translated into higher fee generation which has been used to support token buybacks.

Hyperliquid’s buyback assistance program allocates 97% of protocol revenue towards repurchasing HYPE tokens.

 is ending 1H26 with a year-to-date gain of about 12%.

TRON has outperformed many major cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2026 as investors reward its 

The network remains a leading blockchain for USDT (Tether) transfers, processing enormous volumes of low-cost stablecoin payments that generate consistent on-chain activity and protocol revenue.

Currently, markets fully expect at least one Fed rate hike by end-2026, with another 1-in-3 chance of a 2nd Fed rate hike in 2H26.

The lack of forward guidance could see more volatility on FOMC meet days.

Any follow-through on the implied hawkish tilt (i.e. rate hikes) and reiterated dedication to the inflation mandate could potentially act as a headwind for risk-on assets, including crypto.

Seasonal patterns suggest fiscal support has tended to increase around mid-term election cycles and has historically been supportive of risk-on assets.

Though it remains to be seen however if a potential reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet as Warsh has advocated will shift more focus to the fiscal policy of the US Treasury.

Still, markets stand ready to price in the election outcomes, and whether it results in a more crypto-friendly Congress or not.

Further developments in the US regulatory environment certainly warrants vigilance among the crypto community, especially around the CLARITY Act - the most comprehensive US crypto market-structure bill ever to clear a chamber of Congress.

Regulatory developments have long played an important role in shaping sentiment across crypto markets, often becoming the dominant narrative as they unfold.

Although final passage in both chambers is being pencilled in for September or later, it remains to be seen whether crypto prices will have enough momentum then, or attention bandwidth even, to react to such major progress for the industry.

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.

Beginner

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Review: Crypto’s dismal 1H26, and what you need to watch in 2H26

These 3 assets have hit fresh lows of late. Will July mark a turnaround?

Markets are starting the week with a slight sigh of relief.

The US and Iran have agreed to halt their latest strikes against one another, which had threatened an already strenuous ceasefire.

As markets stay vigilant over the shifting developments surrounding US-Iran peace talks ...

Last week, the world’s most-traded currency pair fell below the 1.133 mark for the first time since end-May 2025!

The strengthening US dollar, in tandem with 

, has weighed down the Euro and other major currencies around the world.

Bloomberg’s FX model predicts a 77% chance that EURUSD trades between 1.13 - 1.152 between today till coming Monday (July 6th).

NOTE: A currency tends to rise at the thought of its interest rates moving higher.

NOTE: EURUSD+ prices fall on a stronger US dollar and/or weaker euro; EURUSD+ rises on a weaker US dollar and/or stronger euro

Last week, Nike stocks sank to their lowest levels since

 though finding support around the psychologically-important 

ust last week, the sportswear giant revealed that its upcoming 

FYQ4 results will be in line with estimates

 (during that same announcement, they also announced a 

Key items to watch: Is Nike’s turnaround on track?

This athletic footwear and apparel maker has seen its fortunes plummet, especially given ailing sales in China.

Markets are eager to find out if Nike’s FY2027 earnings is looking brighter, specifically around:

In recent sessions, prices of the world’s biggest and oldest cryptocurrency has dipped into 

However, such forays have proved short-lived thus far, attracting some 

 to shore up BTC around that psychologically-important mark.

Bitcoin has struggled to embark on a sustained recovery since the October 10th, 2025 liquidation event, despite its relative resilience amid the Iran war.

ooking ahead, crypto markets are struggling to find a catalyst for a major rebound, which has soured crypto sentiment of late:

 - albeit only a tiny amount was sold, along with the 

why our Market Pulse reports should not be missed:

June 29 - web banner - Market Pulse.png

3 Assets to Watch (June 29 - July 3): EURUSD+, Nike, and Bitcoin

What's next? Discover the 1-week through 1-year forecasts for these major assets.

Market sentiment has been soured by the recent selloff across major assets.

 respects $1055 downside target set at start of this week

To be clear, Micron’s stellar earnings outlook sent this stock 

 on Thursday, June 25th - greater than the 10.1% post-earnings move forecasted by options market.

However, the souring broader sentiment surrounding the AI trade is prompting Micron and other AI stocks to relinquish recent gains.

Wall Street analysts predict the Nasdaq 100 could rise another 20% over the next 12 months.

Bloomberg’s model predicts 73% chance Gold will trade between $3893 - $4219 over next week.

5) US Dollar, Gold, Cryptos, and US Stock Indices behave accordingly to “hawkish” Fed

Note that the SP500 and NAS100 indexes are laden with tech/AI stocks, which have caused them to falter as the “fervour for AI stocks” is eroded.

Wall Street analysts predict the Dow could rise another 11% over the next 12 months.

June 26 - web banner - Market Pulse.png

Targets Respected: Gold, Brent Oil, Micron, NAS100, DJ30, even Cryptos

Coincidence or causation? Recent match winners had a stronger currency than their opponents.

9 teams have already qualified for the Round of 32 at football's greatest tournament.

At the time of writing, that list reads as:

(listed in order of upcoming appearance in knockout stage)

*qualified for the knockout stages for the first time ever.

As the world cup progresses, the greater the odds of seeing 

And fans would be hoping for an underdog or two (🇨🇻 Cape Verde?) to spoil the party among the global elite.

Can Forex Markets Predict Football Outcomes?

Still, we use this opportunity, amid the football fever, to indulge and assess how far the correlation goes.

1) Recent match winners also had stronger currency

Coincidentally, there has been an uncanny link in recent matches:

2) Countries with top-performing currencies doing well at World Cup, so far

In June 2026, we have already twice published rankings for how the stock markets and currencies belonging to the 

48 countries represented at the World Cup

And these countries that made our global rankings are still sitting pretty in their respective World Cup groups.

(% performance vs. US dollar since June 10th)

Colombia now top of Group K, above Portugal

South Africa qualified for World Cup knockout stages - first time in their history - as 2nd best team in Group A, behind Mexico.

These 5 countries listed above are retaining their spots since our 

But there has been a notable new inclusion into this top-5 ranking: the 

 has muscled its way into this top-5 list, pushing the 

Except for Paraguay, these countries with the best-performing currencies* occupy the top 2 spots in their respective groups.

*among 48 countries represented at World Cup, vs. USD on year-to-date basis

In other words, they're all still within reach of the knockout stages of the World Cup, if they haven't qualified already:

Paraguay now 3rd in Group D, behind 2nd-placed Australia on goal difference (-2)

Brazil qualified for World Cup knockout stages - best team in Group C

Australia now 2nd in Group D, behind the USA

Mexico qualified for World Cup knockout stages - best team in Group A

Norway now 2nd in Group I, behind France on goal difference

June 25 - web banner - Market Pulse.png

Can Forex Markets Predict Football Matches?

Find your edge: Get gold price forecasts according to Bloomberg models.

 is about to form a technical pattern that signals more price declines ahead.

A “death cross” is when an asset’s 

When this technical pattern happens on the price charts, it typically acts as a signal to traders that 

 performed after previous “death crosses”?

Over the past decade, spot gold has formed 7 “death crosses”:

*Gold saw a flash crash in August 2021, and another sharp drop in January 2022, in the lead up to the Fed’s most recent rate-hike cycle between 2022-2023

For another instance of a “death cross” at work, we highlighted this technical pattern for 

Since that April 10th Market Pulse report, 

vindicating its “death cross” signal of further price declines.

As highlighted in our Market Pulse report published Monday, June 22nd,

US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

 - Fed’s preferred measure of inflation - is due to be released at 

This event could be the next major catalyst for gold traders, though it has historically triggered relatively smaller gold price moves than the 

As Bybit Learn’s Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, 

Over the longer term, the Bloomberg model forecasts a 74% chance that 

 could fall to as low as $3458, or rebound to as high as $4882 by the end of 2026.

Much will have to do with whether the Fed does indeed raise US interest rates and drag gold lower, or somehow surprisingly resume cutting interest rates (assuming US inflation cools down rapidly in 2H26) and boosts gold’s allure once more.

June 24 - web banner - Market Pulse.png

Gold set to form “death cross”. Here’s what could happen next.

GBPUSD still trading around lowest levels so far this year, as Starmer makes way likely for Burnham as UK PM.

 is rebounding slightly this week, though still mired around its lowest levels so far in 2026.

Recall last week, the British Pound sank to the 1.3160 price region against the US dollar, matching its 

Those recent declines were driven by 2 key factors:

NOTE: A currency tends to strengthen when markets believe that a country’s interest rates would rise faster than its peers, and vice versa.

, though still holding around its lowest levels so far in 2026.

Starmer’s resignation as UK PM comes less than two years after Labour’s landslide election victory.

Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, is now on a path to becoming the 

The next UK Prime Minister could be installed anytime between mid-July at the earliest, through September.

GBPUSD+ under each UK Prime Minister (last 10 years)

NOTE: This seemingly small decline masks GBPUSD’s dramatic plummet to a record low of 1.0350 during Truss’s 49-day term as PM - the shortest in UK history.

Next week, markets expect Burnham to make a speech on the economy, which could give markets their first clues on the incoming administration’s fiscal (spending and taxation) plans.

From an economic and fiscal perspective, here’s what the new Prime Minister will inherit:

This would mark a deterioration following the UK’s stellar performance in Q1 when it achieved the fastest growth among G7 economies.

Traders and investors worldwide are also eager to discover Burnham’s choice for UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Wes Streeting to replace Rachel Reeves?).

Hence, the market’s consensus appears to lean “bearish” (expect more GBP declines ahead).

However, JPMorgan this week just reinstated its “bullish” view (expect GBP to climb) after holding a “neutral” view in the lead up to last week’s by-election.

Given the “hawkish” Fed, the prospects of a stronger US dollar looms large over the rest of the FX universe in the months ahead, likely limiting GBPUSD's gains.

Should UK political and fiscal risks spike once more, perhaps on rising uncertainties or even a market revolt over the next PM’s fiscal policies and/or choice for Chancellor, that may further weaken GBP in the 2nd half of the year.

June 23 - web banner - Market Pulse - GBPUSD.png

Sterling Outlook? Here's how the British Pound could perform for the rest of 2026

This week: Oil to erase Iran war gains? New ATH for Micron? USDJPY+ to hit 40-year high?

Markets are cautiously cheering early signs of positive developments in US-Iran peace talks.

stemming from all-night talks with the US in Switzerland.

Here are some key price moves so far this Monday, June 22nd:

At the time of writing on this Monday, June 22nd, Brent is sitting on 

 since the Iran war erupted on February 28th.

 (using intraday prices on Bybit TradFi platforms):

Also at the time of writing, Brent is still 

 forecasted to move 10% up/down post-earnings

At the time of writing (Mon, June 22nd), Micron has hit yet another 

*prices on Micron USDT perpetual contracts on Bybit’s trading platforms.

Micron is set to release its latest quarterly earnings 

after US markets close this Wednesday, June 24th.

(to be more precise: 297.3%), making it one of the star performers on the US stock market so far in 2026:

NOTE: The S&P 500 index is arguably the most popular way to measure the overall performance of the US stock market.

Typically, most retail traders and investors will only get the chance to react to Micron’s earnings once 

At the time of writing, USDJPY+ is within a whisker of the 161.80 level it briefly breached last Friday (June 19th), when it marked its 

This major G10 FX pair soared to a 2-year high late last week, despite:

NOTE: USDJPY moving higher = stronger US dollar vs. Weaker Yen

Should USDJPY hit the psychological 162.00 level (a price not seen since December 1986), it 

risks another strong currency intervention 

Last month (May 2026), Japan’s Finance Ministry already spent a 

record US$ 73.4 billion to intervene and defend the Yen

Besides a potentially dramatic currency intervention, USDJPY+ traders are also set to closely watch the inflation data out of either side of the Pacific this week:

Economists predict the various PCE figures rose 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) and 4.1% year-on-year (y/y) - all rising, even the core PCE numbers, at a faster pace compared to April’s figures.

Economists predict these Tokyo CPI figures to have risen faster year-on-year in June (headline CPI: 1.6% y/y; core CPI: 1.8% y/y)

NOTE: At the time of writing, markets predict a greater-than-even 65% chance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will next hike rates in end-October 2026.

NOTE: A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country’s interest rates rising

market-pulse_04_1600x900 (7).png

3 Assets to Watch (June 22-26): Brent Oil, Micron, USDJPY+

You might be surprised at which countries are winning in global currency and stock markets!

The World Cup has now entered matchday 2.

witnessed at the football stadiums across the US, Canada and Mexico, from the 3 red cards in the tournament opener between Mexico and South Africa, to Lionel Messi becoming the joint World Cup all-time scorer after his hattrick in Argentina's 3-1 win against Algeria.

, specifically foreign exchange (FX/forex) and stock markets worldwide.

Of the 48 nations represented at the World Cup, these are the best-performing currencies since the world's biggest sporting event began:

Still, eagle-eyed readers of Market Pulse reports would notice a major reshuffling among the top 5 year-to-date gainers against the US dollar.

There's even now a new "world champion*" in the forex markets 

*biggest year-to-date gainer out of the 48 countries at the World Cup, versus the US dollar

US Dollar set to weigh down global currencies in 2H26 on "hawkish" Fed

This week, New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh vowed that the US Federal Reserve - the world's most influential central bank - will restore price stability, 

As traders and investors now digest the prospects of US interest rates moving higher in the second half of 2026, 

global currencies may find it tough to preserve its year-to-date gains against the US dollar.

NOTE: A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country's interest rates moving higher, and vice versa.

How have Bybit's stock indexes performed recently?

These are the biggest gainers between June 10th - on the eve of the World Cup, through June 18th:

Looking across the Bybit universe, it's been a notable week featuring 

Altcoins

Blockchain

Crypto

DeFi

GameFi

Indicators

Investing

Artificial Intelligence

Metaverse

Memes

Options

Stablecoin

Staking

Strategies

Trading

Web 3.0

Web3 Experts

Live ICYMI

Fiat Money

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