Topics Market Pulse

Forecasts: US jobs report due Thursday, July 2. Here’s how BTC, gold, SP500, etc. may react.

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Market Pulse
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Jul 2, 2026

The next installment of the US jobs report is due today!

Regular market watchers would note that this pivotal monthly economic data is typically released on the first Friday of the month.

However, the June nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report will be unveiled a day earlier - Thursday, July 2nd @ 12:30 PM UTC - ahead of the upcoming 4th of July Independence Day holiday.

IMPORTANT: US markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd – as we’d highlighted in our week ahead preview “Market Pulse” report published Monday, June 29th.

Why is the US jobs report so important?

The NFP report can move trillions of dollars across global financial markets!

Just revisit what happened at the previous NFP release on Friday, June 5th:

Here’s how markets read (and react) to the monthly US jobs report:

1) US consumers drive US economic growth

The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = US consumers (people spending money on goods and services).

Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.

2) US jobs report influences Fed rate decisions

The Federal Reserve, a.k.a. the Fed, is the world’s most influential central bank and has a dual mandate (economic goals to achieve):

  • “Maximum employment” (jobs growth)
  • “Stable prices” (inflation)

Typically, the Fed either:

  • lowers its benchmark interest rates to boost jobs growth and support inflation, OR
  • raises its benchmark interest rates to dampen jobs growth so it subdues inflation
A hot US jobs market (a lot of hiring) may also lead to inflation staying elevated!

i.e. more people with jobs = there’s more money that can be spent in an economy = businesses have more ability to raise their selling prices = inflation

Will the Fed hike US interest rates this year?

Just yesterday (Wed, July 1st), new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated policymakers’ aim to bring US inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target, while revealing that “inflation risks have come down”.

At the time of writing:

  • markets expect an 80% chance that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as September.
  • markets now also predict a 43% chance that we could see TWO Fed rate hikes by the end of 2026.

That’s in stark contrast to expectations at the start of the year, with 2 rate CUTS forecasted for all of 2026.

NFP forecasts by economists

Here’s what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

  • Headline NFP number: 113,000 new jobs added in June

If so, that would be lower than the blockbuster 172,000 new jobs added in the month prior (May 2026).

  • Unemployment rate: 4.3%

If so, 4.3% would match May’s jobless rate.

Potential market scenarios

  • Another blockbuster (well above 113k NFP headline figure) US jobs report that paves the way for Fed rate hikes in 2026 could drag down risk assets such as US stock indices and cryptos, while boosting the US dollar.
  • If the US jobs market remains resilient (headline NFP figure not too far from 113k), or at least not suffering an unexpected deterioration, it may bolster major risk assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30) and cryptos, while keeping the US dollar bid.
  • An unexpected rapid deterioration in US hiring (drastically lower than 113k) that dilutes bets for Fed rate hikes in 2026 could translate into a weaker dollar, likely boosting US dollar-denominated assets e.g. precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD+) and Silver (XAGUSD), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+ etc.). Risk assets may initially tumble in such an NFP report, before taking delight in the dwindling prospects of Fed rate hikes.

Ask TradeGPT: How does the US jobs report impact cryptos?

How are major assets expected to react to the incoming NFP data?

These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the NFP release @ 12:30 PM UTC Thur, July 2nd:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): as much as 0.9% up / 2.9% down
  • Ethereum (ETH): as much as 0.5% up / 4.2% down
  • Ripple (XRP): as much as 1% up / 3.1% down
  • Solana (SOL): as much as 0.9% up / 3.7% down
  • Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1.3% up / 1.2% down
  • Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 2.4% up / 2.6% down
  • Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 0.7% up / 1.7% down
  • WTI Crude Oil (USOUSD): as much as 0.6% up / 1.9% down
  • EURUSD+: as much as 0.6% up / 0.5% down
  • GBPUSD+: as much as 0.44% up / 0.43% down
  • USDJPY+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.7% down
  • S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.45% up / 1.4% down
  • Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1.1% up / 2% down
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.3% up / 1% down

DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.