US inflation due today - Can CPI help markets overcome Middle East conflict fears?

• US February inflation data to be released at 12:30PM UTC Wed, March 11

• Inflation is widely measured via consumer price index (CPI) and directly impacts Fed rate decisions

• Higher-than-expected CPI may drag down stocks, gold, and cryptos.

• Lower-than-expected CPI may offer boost risk assets, including cryptos.

• Scroll down to find out economists' forecasts and predicted price moves for your favourite markets

The February US inflation data, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released at 12:30PM UTC today (Wed, March 11).

Markets are aware that this CPI print is for February - which doesn't take into account the potential oil shock since the Middle East conflict erupted on February 28th.

Still, investors, traders, and even policymakers will be closely monitoring the US inflation impulses leading up to the Middle East conflict.

Why CPI matters?

US inflation data directly impacts the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve - the world's most influential central bank. 

The market's forecasts on the Fed's next moves, based on the incoming CPI data, can reposition trillions of dollars across forex, stocks, and even crypto prices worldwide within minutes of the release. 

Big CPI surprises create explosive volatility, which in turn may offer traders opportunities to profit from rapid price swings in forex, indices, and bonds.

In short, CPI release days can produce some of the most action-packed trading sessions of the month.

US CPI forecasts by economists

Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

• Headline CPI year-on-year (Feb 2026 vs. Feb 2025): 2.4%

If so, 2.4% will match January's year-on-year number

• Headline CPI month-on-month (Feb 2026 vs. Jan 2026): 0.3%

If so, 0.3% would be higher than January's 0.2% month-on-month number

• Core CPI (excluding more volatile items such as food and energy prices) year-on-year: 2.5%

If so, 2.5% will match January's core CPI year-on-year number

• Core CPI month-on-month: 0.2%

If so, 0.2% core CPI will be slightly lower than January's 0.3% month-on-month core CPI number

Potential Near-Term Scenarios

• If US inflation figures come in lower-than-expected, that may boost assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30, etc.), Gold, Silver, and even Bitcoin - as markets restore the odds of more Fed rate cuts incoming this year.

• If US inflation figures come in higher-than-expected, that may drag lower US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30, etc.), Gold, Silver, and even Bitcoin - as markets further dilute odds of Fed rate cuts in 2026. 

Currently, markets only expect a 58% chance that the Fed can cut rates TWO times more in 2026 - a scenario which had been fully expected (100% odds) by markets just a month ago (as of Feb 11th).

How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?

These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the CPI release @ 12:30 PM UTC Wed, Mar 11th:

• Bitcoin (BTC):  as much as 1.6% up / 1.8% down

• Ethereum (ETH): as much as 4.2% up / 3% down

• Ripple (XRP): as much as 2.3% up / 1.9% down

• Solana (SOL): as much as 4% up / 2.6% down

• Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1.2% up / 0.3% down

• Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.5% up / 0.8% down

• Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 0.9% up / 0.6% down

• EURUSD+: as much as 0.7% up / 0.2% down

• GBPUSD+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.2% down

• USDJPY+: as much as 0.1% up / 0.6% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 1% up / 1.5% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1.2% up / 1.5% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 1% up / 1.5% down