Preview: US inflation due Friday, Feb 13. Can CPI help Gold, SP500, etc. conquer key resistance?
The latest US jobs report was released just yesterday (Wed, Feb 11) - and it was a shocker!
January's headline US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) figure came in at 130,000 - that's DOUBLE the forecasted number of new jobs added in the world's largest economy.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% - lower than the forecasted 4.4%.
This latest display of resilience in the US jobs market prompted markets to lower bets for a Fed rate cut in June 2026.
The odds for a Fed rate cut in June fell to 70%, lower than the 100% odds accorded as of Tue, Feb 10 - the day prior to the NFP's release.
Lesser odds of a Fed rate cut sent Gold (XAUUSD+) falling as much as 1.28% - almost exact to the 1.24% downwards move we cited in our NFP preview article, published on Feb 10th.
Tap here to revisit the forecasted % reactions here, and compare it against how your favourite/closely-watched asset fared in the 6 hours after the NFP release.
Check In: 3 Assets to Watch (Feb 9-13)
On the penultimate day of this trading week, we see how the trade setups for the 3 assets highlighted since Monday (Feb 9) are faring.
The price action so far for the SP500 and Brent Oil serve as fresh reminders as to how big, round numbers can impact prices, and the psychology of markets.
1) SP500 thwarted by 7k line, yet again!
Status update= almost.
The SP500 got to within 0.065% (4.57 index points) of the 7,000 line, before this big, round number then exerted strong psychological resistance once more, as it has done on multiple occasions since mid-January.
2) Brent Crude Oil surpasses upside scenario, but bulls thwarted at $71/bbl price level.
We expected a breakout in Brent Crude Oil Cash (UKOUSD), but instead of the downside breakout we'd expected, this global oil benchmark broke out to the upside.
UKOUSD soared to as high as $71.005, before being resisted around this big, round number ($71/bbl).
UPDATE: Since today's report was first published, Brent oil has pulled further below the $70/bbl level.
The IEA revealed the global oil stockpiles in 2025 grew an "astonishing" 477 million barrels - its fastest pace since the 2020 pandemic.
The IEA report was a key event for oil markets this week, cited in our "3 Assets to Watch" article published Monday, Feb 9th.
Why is oil rising this week? Here are 3 reasons:
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which may make global oil supplies scarcer (supply side risk).
OPEC yesterday (Wed, Feb 11), said that January's oil production slumped in Kazakhstan (Econs 101: lower supplies tend to send prices higher, assuming demand remains equal).
Weaker US dollar: the benchmark US dollar index is still down 0.7% so far this week, despite seeing a slight rebound after yesterday's US jobs report.
NOTES: - A resilient US jobs market is thought to deter the Fed from cutting interest rates. - A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country's rates staying high/not going down as fast. - Oil is priced in US dollars. Hence, a weaker US dollar tends to send oil prices higher, and vice versa.
3) Bitcoin pares surge from last Friday, Feb 6th
Cryptos are still struggling for direction, with Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) slipping away from the $70k level.
Among major altcoins, only these 3 have week-to-date gains at the time of writing (per Bloomberg data):
Hedera hashgraph (HBAR/USDT): +2% so far this week
TRON (TRX/USDT): +2.2% so far this week
Monero (XMRUSDT): +6.7% so far this week
For comparison, Bitcoin is down 4.4% so far this week.
But the week isn't over yet!
The pivotal US inflation data is due to be released tomorrow (Friday, Feb 13) @ 1:30PM UTC.
NOTE: Inflation is broadly measured via the consumer price index a.k.a. CPI
CPI forecasts by economists
Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:
Headline CPI year-on-year (Jan 2026 vs. Jan 2025): 2.5%
If so, 2.5% will be slower growth than December's 2.7% year-on-year number
Headline CPI month-on-month (Jan 2026 vs. Dec 2025): 0.3%
If so, 0.3% would match December's month-on-month number
Core CPI (excluding more volatile items such as food and energy prices): 2.5%
If so, 2.5% will be slower growth than December's 2.6% core CPI year-on-year number
Core CPI month-on-month: 0.3%
If so, 0.3% core CPI will be slightly FASTER than December's 0.2% month-on-month number
Potential Near-Term Scenarios
If US inflation figures come in lower-than-expected, that may boost assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30, etc.), Gold, Silver, and even cryptos - at the thought of more Fed rate cuts incoming.
If US inflation figures come in higher-than-expected, that may drag lower US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30, etc.), Gold, Silver, and even cryptos - at the thought of the Fed delaying its next rate cut.
Currently, markets only expect a 16% chance that the Fed can cut rates THREE times in 2026, compared to the 40% odds accorded as of Tue, Feb 10th - the day prior to yesterday's NFP release.
How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?
These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the CPI release @ 1:30 PM UTC Fri, Feb 13th.
Bitcoin (BTC): as much as 1.2% up / 1.8% down
Ethereum (ETH): as much as 3.6% up / 3.2% down
Ripple (XRP): as much as 1.9% up / 2.2% down
Solana (SOL): as much as 3% up / 3% down
Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1.1% up / 0.3% down
Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.6% up / 0.5% down
Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 1.1% up / 0.65% down
EURUSD+: as much as 0.7% up / 0.18% down
GBPUSD+: as much as 0.45% up / 0.2% down
USDJPY+: as much as 0.4% up / 0.6% down
S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 1% up / 1.5% down
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1.3% up / 1.4% down
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 1% up / 1.5% down