PREVIEW: US inflation data due today (Tue, May 12). Forecasts for BTC, gold, oil, and more.
The world has been obsessing over inflation ever since the Iran war erupted on February 28th.
From gold traders, to central bankers, and most certainly consumers - many are wary about the prospects of rising prices of goods and services, and its impact on the global economy.
Today (Tue, May 12), theq world's biggest economy is set to unveil its latest monthly inflation data.
First, a quick recap to get you up to speed.
Why is the US inflation data so important?
Inflation is widely measured via the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
1) Inflation drives Fed rate decisions
Inflation directly influences what the Federal Reserve a.k.a. The Fed - the world's most influential central bank - does with US interest rates.
When inflation runs hot, the Fed may raise rates, making borrowing more expensive and potentially cooling price gains in stock markets, gold, even cryptos.
2) Market volatility spikes on CPI announcements
The CPI announcements are must-watch events, and can trigger huge prices moves across asset classes - bonds, stocks, FX, commodities and cryptos.
These big moves create rare trading opportunities as markets react sharply to whether inflation comes in higher or lower than expected.
3) Inflation trends affect your own spending
Rising inflation affects financial markets, government policies, and even your own budget. Higher petrol prices translate into more money needed to fill up the tank, and perhaps in turn less spending on your daily coffee fix.
Understanding CPI helps you position not just your trades and investments, but even household spending as well.
CPI forecasts by economists
Here's what experts are forecasting for this top-tier economic data release:
- CPI year-on-year (April 2026 vs. April 2025): 3.7%
If so, 3.7% would be higher than March's 3.3% year-on-year surge - already the biggest yearly jump since 2024!
- CPI month-on-month (April 2026 vs. March 2026): 0.6%
If so, 0.6% would be slower than March's 0.9% month-on-month surge - the biggest monthly jump since 2022!
- Core CPI (excluding more volatile food and energy prices) year-on-year: 2.7%
If so, 2.7% would be slightly higher than March's 2.6% core y/y CPI.
- Core CPI month-on-month: 0.3%
If so, 0.3% would be faster growth than March's 0.2% core m/m CPI.
Note that the underlying core inflation figures appeared tame at the previous CPI release, back on April 10th.
Traders and investors will want to find out if there are sparks of inflation overheating in today's CPI release.
Potential Near-Term Scenarios
- Higher-than-expected US CPI figures should translate into a stronger US dollar on increasing confidence that Fed rate cuts are being priced out for 2026. Such prospects should drag down precious metals (Gold - XAUUSD+ and Silver - XAGUSD), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+, AUDUSD+ etc.), stock indices, and even major cryptos.
- Lower-than-expected US CPI figures may boost major assets ranging from US stock indices (SP500 to NAS100) to gold (XAUUSD+). Risk assets such as cryptos may also take delight in such a report.
How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI?
These forecasts are for the 6 hours after CPI announcement @ 12:30 PM UTC Tue, May 12:
- Bitcoin (BTC): as much as 1.9% up / 0.8% down
- Ethereum (ETH): as much as 4.2% up / 0.7% down
- Ripple (XRP): as much as 2.5% up / 0.8% down
- Solana (SOL): as much as 4.5% up / 1.1% down
- Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1% up / 0.5% down
READ MORE (published Mon, May 11): Solana and Gold listed among "3 Assets to Watch" this week
- Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.6% up / 1% down
- Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 1.3% up / 0.6% down
- WTI Crude Oil (USOUSD): as much as 1.3% up / 0.7% down
- EURUSD+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.2% down
- GBPUSD+: as much as 0.4% up / 0.2% down
- USDJPY+: as much as 0.3% up / 0.5% down
- S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.6% up / 0.5% down
- Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 0.9% up / 0.6% down
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.8% up / 0.8% down
NFP vs. CPI: Which macro event has/had the bigger forecasted price moves?
DISCLAIMER:This article is provided for general information and reflects the authorโs views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.