Preview: Fed, ECB, BoE rate decisions. Forecasted reactions for Bitcoin, Gold, and more.
Get ready for a potentially wild 30-hour period!
Wednesday, April 29:
- @ 6:00 PM UTC: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision
- @ 6:30 PM UTC: Final post-FOMC decision press conference for Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
- After US markets close @ 8:00 PM UTC onwards: Earnings results from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta
Tap here for the forecasted % stock price reactions to their respective earnings, published on Monday, April 27.
Thursday, April 30
- @ 11:00 AM UTC: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision
- @ 12:15 PM UTC: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision
Look out for signals on next rate moves by Fed, ECB, BoE
Note that all 3 major central banks listed above are expected to leave rates unchanged this week - anything else would be a massive shock!
Yet, markets remain ready to react to any clues about when the next rate hike by the Fed, ECB, and/or BoE may come.
At the time of writing, here's what markets are forecasting:
- Fed: no US rate hike expected this year
- BoE: 76% chance of a UK rate hike in June 2026; 62% chance of 3 rate hikes total by end-2026
- ECB: rate hike fully expected in June 2026; with 3 rate hikes total fully expected by end-2026
How might major assets react?
Here are the forecasted price reactions, in % terms, for relevant assets, for the 6 hours following each major central bank's rate decision:
1) Post-Fed reactions
- EURUSD+: as much as 0.21% up / 0.6% down
- GBPUSD+: as much as 0.2% up / 0.5% down
- USDJPY+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.27% down
- XAUUSD+: as much as 2% up / 1.6% down
- SP500: as much as 1% up or down
- Bitcoin: as much as 0.68% up / 1% down
2) Post-BoE reactions
3) Post-ECB reactions
Did you miss this?
At the onset of the week, we had already highlighted "3 Assets to Watch" for this week.
As a quick update ...
Bitcoin got within 0.7% of our downside target set on Monday, April 27, finding support around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) - a key technical level we had highlighted on the start of this week.
DISCLAIMER:
This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.