Market forecasts for delayed US jobs report
The highly-anticipated monthly US jobs report is typically released on the first Friday of every month.ย
However, due to the recent (and brief) US government shutdown ...
The January US jobs report is set to be released at 1:30 PM UTC on Wednesday, February 11th.
NOTE: The monthly nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data is a widely-followed benchmark of the overall health of the US jobs market.
Why is the US jobs report so important?
1) US consumers drive US economic growth
The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = US consumers (people spending money on goods and services).
Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.
2) Fed's mandate for "maximum employment"
The Federal Reserve is the world's most influential central bank.
And because "maximum employment" is one-half of the Fed's dual mandate, the US central bank either:
lowers its benchmark interest rates to boost jobs growth and support inflation
raises its benchmark interest rates to manage jobs growth so it doesn't lead to a spike in inflation
NFP forecasts
Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:
Headline NFP number: 68,000 new jobs added in January 2026
If so, that would be higher than the 50k new jobs added in Dec 2025.
Unemployment rate: 4.4%
If so, that would be unchanged from the Dec 2025 US jobless rate
Potential Near-Term Scenarios
A US jobs market that's not deteriorating rapidly, or even faring better-than-expected may boost major assets like US stock indices (SP500, DJ30, etc.). Risk assets such as cryptos may also take delight in such a report.
On the other hand, US dollar-denominated assets may move higher (e.g. precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD), along with FX pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD etc.) on the weaker US dollar if a much weaker-than-expected US jobs report bolsters bets for Fed rate cuts in 2026.
Currently, markets fully expect the first Fed rate cut of 2026 to happen in June, with a 33% chance of 3 total (including April's expected cut) for all of 2026.
How are major assets expected to react to the incoming NFP data?
These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the NFP release @ 1:30 PM UTC Wednesday, Feb 11
Bitcoin (BTC):ย as much as 1.7% up / 2.43% down
Ethereum (ETH): as much as 1.66% up / 3.38% down
Ripple (XRP): as much as 2.2% up / 3.2% down
Solana (SOL): as much as 3% up / 3.78% down
Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1% up / 1.24% down
Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.68% up / 2% down
Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 0.85% up / 1.55% down
EURUSD+: as much as 0.63% up / 0.6% down
GBPUSD+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.53% down
USDJPY+: as much as 0.85% up / 0.7% down
S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.9% up / 1.8% down
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1.1% up / 1.85% down
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.9% up / 1.71% down
Not sure which assets to choose? Here are 3 Assets to Watch (Feb 9-13)