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Forecasts: US jobs report due Friday, May 8. Here's how BTC, gold, SP500, etc. may react.

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2026ćčŽ5月7æ—„

The next monthly US jobs report is set to be released on Friday, May 8th @ 12:30 PM UTC.

Although typically announced on the first Friday of the month, the April US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) will be unveiled on May 8th instead, given that May 1st was international labour day which may have distracted market attention to this top-tier US economic data.

Why is the US jobs report so important?

1) US consumers drive US economic growth

The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = US consumers (people spending money on goods and services).

Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.

However, the resilience of the US jobs market, and US economic growth in tandem, is being doubted in light of the risks stemming from the Iran war.

2) Fed’s mandate for “maximum employment”

The Federal Reserve, a.k.a. the Fed, is the world’s most influential central bank and has a dual mandate (economic goals to achieve):

  • “Maximum employment” (jobs growth)
  • “Stable prices” (inflation)

Typically, the Fed either:

  • lowers its benchmark interest rates to boost jobs growth and support inflation, OR
  • raises its benchmark interest rates to dampen jobs growth so it doesn’t lead to a spike in inflation

However, the Fed’s job has become trickier because of the Iran war potentially stoking US inflation.
  • Rising oil prices could push US inflation higher (which would typically warrant higher Fed rates), BUT
  • The conflict also risks hurting US jobs growth (which would typically warrant lower Fed rates).

In short, it remains to be seen how resilient/hurt the US jobs market has been, and whether the Fed has to rush in and quickly cut US interest rates while tolerating higher US inflation.

Currently, markets expect Fed rates to remain stuck i.e. unchanged till mid-2027.

That’s in stark contrast to expectations at the start of the year, with TWO rate cuts forecasted for all of 2026.

NFP forecasts by economists

Here’s what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

  • Headline NFP number: 65,000 new jobs added in April

If so, that would be notably lower than the blockbuster 178,000 new jobs added in the month prior (March 2026).

  • Unemployment rate: 4.3%

If so, 4.3% would match March’s jobless rate.

Potential market scenarios

  • On the other hand, a much weaker-than-expected US jobs report that restores bets for Fed rate cuts in 2026 could translate into a weaker dollar, likely sending US dollar-denominated assets moving higher (e.g. precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD+) and Silver (XAGUSD), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+, AUDUSD+ etc.).

Ask TradeGPT: How does the US jobs report impact cryptos?

How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?

These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the CPI release @ 12:30 PM UTC Fri, May 8th:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): as much as 1.1% up / 2.8% down
  • Ethereum (ETH): as much as 0.7% up / 3.8% down
  • Ripple (XRP): as much as 1% up / 3.1% down
  • Solana (SOL): as much as 0.6% up / 3.6% down
  • Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1.1% up / 0.6% down
  • Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 1.8% up / 1% down
  • Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 1.3% up / 1.6% down
  • WTI Crude Oil (USOUSD): as much as 1.6% up / 1.9% down
  • EURUSD+: as much as 0.6% up / 0.4% down
  • GBPUSD+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.3% down
  • USDJPY+: as much as 0.5% up / 0.7% down
  • S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.5% up / 1.3% down
  • Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 0.9% up / 1.6% down
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.4% up / 1% down

DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.