Can Forex Markets Predict Football Matches?

9 teams have already qualified for the Round of 32 at football's greatest tournament.

At the time of writing, that list reads as:

^{(listed in order of upcoming appearance in knockout stage)}

🇿🇦 South Africa*

🇨🇦 Canada*

^{*qualified for the knockout stages for the first time ever.}

🇧🇷 Brazil

🇩🇪 Germany

🇲🇦 Morocco

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇺🇸 USA

🇨🇭 Switzerland

🇦🇷 Argentina

As the world cup progresses, the greater the odds of seeing football heavyweights battle against one another.

And fans would be hoping for an underdog or two (🇨🇻 Cape Verde?) to spoil the party among the global elite.

Can Forex Markets Predict Football Outcomes?

To be clear ...

Progress at the world's biggest sporting event does not impact currency markets, nor the other way around.

Still, we use this opportunity, amid the football fever, to indulge and assess how far the correlation goes.

Here are 3 points for consideration:

1) Recent match winners also had stronger currency

Coincidentally, there has been an uncanny link in recent matches:

• 🇲🇽 Mexico 3-0 Czech 🇨🇿

Mexican Peso +5.6% vs. Czech Koruna so far in 2026

• 🇿🇦 South Africa 1-0 South Korea 🇰🇷

South African Rand +7.2% vs. South Korean Won so far in 2026

• 🇧🇷 Brazil 3-0 Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Brazilian Real +7.7% vs. British Pound so far in 2026

• 🇨🇭 Switzerland 2-1 Canada 🇨🇦

Swiss Franc +1.3% vs. Canadian Dollar so far in 2026

• 🇨🇴 Colombia 1-0 Congo 🇨🇩

Colombian Peso +11% vs. Congolese Franc so far in 2026

2) Countries with top-performing currencies doing well at World Cup, so far

In June 2026, we have already twice published rankings for how the stock markets and currencies belonging to the 48 countries represented at the World Cup have fared in global financial markets:

• published June 19th: World Beaters in FX and Stock Markets
• published June 11th: Which World Cup nations' stocks/currencies lead global rankings?

And these countries that made our global rankings are still sitting pretty in their respective World Cup groups.

FX Markets: World Beaters

^{(% performance vs. US dollar since June 10th)}

#1 🇪🇬 Egyptian Pound: +4.6%

Egypt now top of Group G

#2 🇨🇴 Colombian Peso: +3.1%

Colombia now top of Group K, above Portugal

#3 🇬🇭 Ghana Cedi: +2%

Ghana now 2nd in Group L, behind England

#4 🇺🇾 Uruguayan Peso: +1.1%

Uruguay now 2nd in Group H, behind Spain

#5 🇿🇦 South African Rand: +0.6%

South Africa qualified for World Cup knockout stages - first time in their history - as 2nd best team in Group A, behind Mexico.

These 5 countries listed above are retaining their spots since our previous ranking published June 19th.

And on a year-to-date basis, MOST of the same currencies from our top-5 list published on June 11th still reign supreme, for now.

But there has been a notable new inclusion into this top-5 ranking: the Mexican Peso has muscled its way into this top-5 list, pushing the Norwegian Krone into 6th place.

Except for Paraguay, these countries with the best-performing currencies* occupy the top 2 spots in their respective groups.

^{*among 48 countries represented at World Cup, vs. USD on year-to-date basis}

In other words, they're all still within reach of the knockout stages of the World Cup, if they haven't qualified already:

#1 🇨🇴 Colombian Peso: +9.8%

Colombia now top of Group K, above Portugal

#2 🇵🇾 Paraguay Guarani: +7.9%

Paraguay now 3rd in Group D, behind 2nd-placed Australia on goal difference (-2)

#3 🇧🇷 Brazilian Real: +5.5%

Brazil qualified for World Cup knockout stages - best team in Group C

#4 🇦🇺 Australian Dollar: +3.6%

Australia now 2nd in Group D, behind the USA

#5 🇲🇽 Mexican Peso: +2.6%

Mexico qualified for World Cup knockout stages - best team in Group A

-----

(#6 🇳🇴 Norwegian Krone: +2.4%)

Norway now 2nd in Group I, behind France on goal difference

3) Falling Currencies = Faltering (World Cup) Campaigns?

Even among the “losers”, there's also a hint of a link between football performance and FX performance.

Some of the countries with the world's worst performing currencies against the US dollar so far this year, have had a dismal tournament this year:

• Turkish Lira: -7.6% so far in 2026

Turkey now has no chance of qualifying for knockout stages.

• Korean Won: -6.5% so far in 2026

South Korea's chances of qualifying for the knockout stages are now hanging by a thread - depending if they can qualify as one of the best-performing, 3rd-placed teams in the group stages.

But Ghana is bucking this trend among the FX losers.

• FX performance: Ghana Cedi (-6.6%) also ranks among the 10 worst-performing currencies against the US dollar so far this year.
• Football performance: Yet, Ghana still sits pretty in 2nd place in Group L, below England (as mentioned above) ^{Fun fact: British Pound has strengthened 4.9% against Ghana Cedi so far in 2026.}

Coincidence, not causation

Yet, a quick AI analysis employing Bloomberg's AskB (beta), ChatGPT, and Claude, shows that in all the group matches played so far ...

There's a 47% rate* that the winning team on the pitch also has a stronger currency against its opponents.

^{*figure excludes draws (no winners to measure), and games featuring countries with non-reliable FX data or pegged/managed currencies.}

One simple way to present this weak link between football and forex is to show the diverging fortunes among the currencies of countries that have already qualified for the knockout stages:

^{(ranked by year-to-date % performance vs. USD)}

The currencies of these football titans have seen contrasting fortunes so far this year.

What’s truly important for FX markets?

Look back at the middle column in the table above.

The bigger takeaway for traders and investors is that many currencies in the table above, and around the world, have weakened against the US dollar in recent weeks.

The US Dollar has reigned supreme over the FX universe, following last week’s “hawkish” messaging from the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.

The Federal Reserve - the most influential central bank in the world - has vigorously stated its ambition to reach its inflation target.

That has translated into rising prospects of a Fed rate hike (US interest rates being moved higher by the US central bank) by end-2026, which is strengthening the US dollar in tandem.

^{NOTE: A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country’s interest rates rising, and vice versa.}

The Fed's policy outlook is indeed causing big price moves across global FX markets, and has little to no direct bearing on how Team USA, or any other nation, will fare in the World Cup.

Except, perhaps how much some of these visiting teams will have to spend the longer their World Cup run continues in the US, Canada, and Mexico, due to forex fluctuations, assuming such spending is funded with their home currencies.

READ MORE (published June 18th): 5 key takeaways from the “new” Fed

DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.