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Best performers so far in 2026, and their 12-month forecasts. Year of the Horse: Can they gallop higher?

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Market Pulse
Daily Bits
17 Th02 2026

Happy lunar new year!

With various Asian markets closed today, and as the US prepares to resume after a 3-day weekend, major assets are starting off the new lunar year in the red:

  • Bybit's SP500 - which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 stock index - is testing its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) once more for critical support

  • Gold (XAUUSD+) is testing the $4,900 psychological level for support, down about 1.4% so far today, while Silver (XAGUSD) is down 2%

Feb17_GBPUSD_.png
The British Pound is weakening after it was announced that the UK unemployment rate in Q4 2025 has reached its highest levels since the pandemic!

This was a key event risk for GBPUSD+ we had highlighted yesterday (Monday, Feb 6th): "3 Assets to Watch".

(NOTE: Major G10 currencies, such as EUR, CAD, and AUD are also edging lower against the US dollar, though less so than GBP).

  • Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is easing lower 0.8%, though the broader CoinDesk 20 index is edging higher 0.3%.

Feb17_BCH_USDT.png

While this may not be the sort of "auspicious red" colour often associated with the lunar new year, it's still worth highlighting notable achievements of late for various assets offered within the Bybit universe.

Here are some of the outstanding winners in the lead up to this first day of the Lunar New Year, along with their long-term (12-month) outlooks:

2026 winners, so far (and 12-month forecasts)

*12-month forecasts below have been derived from Bloomberg's models and surveys of Wall Street analysts and economists

NOTE: All % figures below represent year-to-date performance

Stock Indices

  • TWINDEX (Taiwan RIC Index Cash CFD): +14.4%

  • Nikkei225 (Japan's benchmark stock index): +12.4%

- further 4.4% potential gains* forecasted for Nikkei225 over next 12 months

  • HK50 (Hang Seng Index cash CFD): +4.2%

- further 19.1% potential gains* forecasted for Hang Seng Index over next 12 months

The list above shows Asian stock indices generally outperforming their Western counterparts so far this year:

  • SP500 (US benchmark stock index): -0.14%

  • GER40 (DAX - Germany's benchmark stock index): +1.3%

  • EU50 (EUSTX50 - Europe's benchmark stock index): +3.2%

Overall, here's Bybit's best-performing stock index so far in 2026: Bovespa Index (BVSPX) - Brazil's benchmark stock index.

BVSPX has soared 15.7% so far this year, with a further 5.2% in potential gains forecasted over the next 12 months*.

Major currencies (FX)

Best-performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far in 2026:

  • Norwegian Krone (USDNOK+): +5.9% vs. US dollar so far this year

- further 5.6% potential gains* vs. US dollar forecasted over next 12 months

  • Australian Dollar (AUDUSD+): +5.8% vs. US dollar so far this year

- further 6.6% potential gains* vs. US dollar forecasted over next 12 months

NOTES:

  • USDNOK+ falls as NOK strengthens against the US dollar, and vice versa
  • AUDUSD+ rises as AUD strengthens against the US dollar, and vice versa

Major commodities

Of course, much has been made about Gold and Silver's stunning surge earlier this year.

Despite the recent pullback:

  • Gold (XAUUSD+) is still up 14% so far this year

Bloomberg's FX model forecasts that gold may even breach $6200 by Feb 2027, implying another 27% in potential upside* over next 12 months

Even oil benchmarks have outperformed Silver's 4.8% gain on a year-to-date basis:

  • Brent Crude Oil Cash (UKOUSD) is up 12.4% so far this year

  • WTI Crude Oil Cash (USOUSD) is up 10.3% so far this year

New Record Highs in February 2026

  • Applied Materials (AMAT): +38.1% so far in 2026

- New intraday record high on Feb 13th

- further 6.6% potential gains* vs. US dollar forecasted over next 12 months

- Applied Materials = 4th biggest year-to-date gainer on the Nasdaq 100 index

  • Caterpillar (CAT): +35.1% so far in 2026

- New intraday record high on Feb 12th

- latest 12-month target price may be released after Caterpillar's next quarterly earnings announcement due end-April

- Caterpillar = biggest year-to-date gainer on the DJ30 (which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average index)

  • Switzerland 20 Cash index (SWI20): +6% so far in 2026

- New intraday record high on Feb 17th

- further 4.1% potential gains* forecasted over next 12 months

As for cryptos ...

Although prices have been languishing so far in 2026, we still maintain our $150,000 end-2026 target for Bitcoin for the time being, barring a fundamental shift in the crypto outlook.