Bybit x FXStreet TradFi Report: Fed stays put in July’s meeting; Dovish remarks might send market higher
Key Highlights:
Fed decision comes on July 30 at 18:00 GMT, followed by Powell press conference at 18:30 GMT
Current US interest rate is 4.5%, with no change expected
Markets will move on expectations for the September 17 meeting, with the probability of a rate cut at 61%
Easing inflation pressures and increasing tariff deals increase the likelihood of a cut later this year
The EUR/USD technical setup shows support at 1.145 and resistance at 1.161
The RSI at 30 suggests oversold conditions, leaving room for an upside rebound if cut odds rise
S&P 500 trading is at record highs, with upside targets at 6,446 and 6,500 if September cut expectations strengthen
Why the July 30 Fed meeting matters
The Federal Reserve meets eight times a year, and each resulting decision is a major financial event. Interest rates affect every corner of the economy, from bank deposits and loans to mortgages and corporate financing.
The rule of thumb is simple:
Lower rates make bank deposits less attractive, pushing investors into stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin and other risk assets. They also weaken the dollar as investors move capital to higher-yielding currencies.
Higher rates make deposits more rewarding, strengthening the dollar while pressuring commodities and equities.
The July 30 meeting is especially critical, because while rates are expected to remain at 4.5%, markets are already looking ahead to September 17, as current data shows a 61% probability of a cut at that time. Even without a change in July, any shift in tone or detail could cause a sharp swing in expectations and markets.
Market focus on September
Why is September seen as the likely turning point? Here are three primary reasons:
Inflation under control: Recent data shows consumer price growth cooling, giving the Fed room to cut without adding price pressures.
Tariff deals reduce risk: Agreements with Japan and the European Union have lowered market anxiety and eased inflation fears.
Trump’s pressure: The White House has been vocal about the need for lower rates to support growth and offset tariff headwinds.
If July’s statement or Powell’s comments raise the probability of a cut from 61% to above 80%, the market could react as if the cut had already taken place. On the other hand, if cut odds fall to 20%, it could feel like a rate hike for markets, pushing the dollar higher and risk assets lower.
Format of the event
On Jul 30, 2025 at 18:00 GMT, the Fed will publish its rate decision and policy statement. While the rate is expected to stay at 4.5%, the statement could include new language that shifts expectations for September.
At 18:30 GMT, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. Traders will parse every comment and answer for clues about the September path.
For real-time updates, traders often follow the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks live probabilities for upcoming meetings.
Technical analysis:
EUR/USD setup
The July 30 decision is expected to create significant opportunities in the euro/dollar pair, both short- and long-term.
Support: The 1.145 level has acted as support on June 19, 22 and 23, and as resistance earlier in June. This zone is considered a key area, and could be tested again if September cut odds fall.
Resistance: The upside target is 1.161, tested multiple times in June as both resistance and support.
Extended levels: Longer-term targets include a downside to 1.137 and an upside to 1.17. Both align with Fibonacci retracement levels, making them critical for momentum traders.
Fibonacci confirmation: The short-term downside of 1.145 aligns with the 4.618 retracement, while 1.161 corresponds with the 2.3 retracement.
RSI signals: The relative strength index (RSI) is at 30, indicating oversold conditions. During past cycles, rebounds from similar levels have led to strong rallies. A September cut could fuel a fresh uptrend for EUR/USD.
Source: TradingView
S&P 500 setup
The S&P 500 is currently trading at new record highs. A September rate cut could provide further fuel for this rally.
Upside targets: The next bullish objective sits at the –0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 6,446. From there, psychological momentum could push the index toward the round number of 6,500.
RSI signals: Relative strength is neutral at around 60, suggesting both upside and downside remain possible, depending upon the Fed’s policy path.
Support levels: The key downside level is 6,307, which corresponds with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. A drop in September cut expectations could trigger a pullback to this zone.
Source: TradingView
Together, these technical setups highlight the stakes of the July 30 Fed decision. With EUR/USD signaling oversold conditions and the S&P 500 pressing new highs, the Fed’s tone could determine whether risk assets extend their rallies or retrace in the weeks ahead.
Conclusion
The July 30 Fed decision could set the stage for a volatile summer. Even without an immediate rate change, expectations for September will dominate price action. Traders should focus on: • The policy statement at 18:00 GMT on Jul 30, 2025 for any shift in tone • Powell’s comments at 18:30 GMT that day for clues about September • EUR/USD levels at 1.145 and 1.161 as key inflection points • The S&P 500’s momentum as it trades near record highs, with 6,446 and 6,500 as key upside targets
With inflation cooling, tariff risks shifting and political pressure mounting, the odds of a September cut remain high. For traders, this event is less about what happens on July 30 and more about how it shapes the ensuing path into September.
Technically, oversold RSI levels and Fibonacci signals suggest room for a rebound in EUR/USD, while the S&P 500’s positioning shows potential for further upside if rate cut expectations grow. For now, July 30 isn’t so much the finish line as the starting point for the next big move in currencies, equities and commodities.