Since initial Feb 17th article, 2 new leaders and many new record highs.

As many Asian economies rang in the Year of the Horse last week, we shared the first iteration of this article titled, 

In that article published on Tuesday, February 17th, we highlighted 3 key themes:

 for individual stocks (Applied Materials and Caterpillar) and even stock indices (Swiss 20 index)

has in turn boosted metals (Gold and Silver), major commodities such as Oil, and other major currencies (EUR, GBP, AUD, etc.)

Since that Feb 17th article, there have been further gains, new leaders, and even new record highs!

Here's what you've missed over the past week (

1) New record highs for Asian and European stock indices TODAY (Wed, Feb 25)

 (Switzerland 20 Cash) - an index we highlighted in our Feb 17th article - posted a new record high on 

Bybit's best-performing stock index so far in 2026

2) Asian stock indices mostly still outperforming Western peers

... compared to their Western counterparts' performance over the past week:

Why are Asian and European stock indices rising faster than US stock indices?

AI-mania had long supercharged US stock markets much higher. 

However, that has given way to fears in recent months that all this AI spending may not produce the intended returns anytime soon.

That has dragged down US stock indices (which have more AI-linked stocks) compared to their Asian and European counterparts which have fewer AI-linked stocks within those latter indices.

Recall last Friday, Feb 20th, the US Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump's trade tariffs.

Although Trump has since hit back with new tariffs set at 10%, while threatening to hike them to 15%, the SCOTUS ruling does raise major doubt over existing tariff levels and trade deals.

That is easing some of the pressures on Asian and European economies, at least for the time being - which in turn is sending cheer into the respective domestic equity markets.

3) Weaker US dollar boosts G10 currencies, metals, and commodities

In our Feb 17th article, we had highlighted the top-2 best performers among G10 currencies against the US dollar on a year-to-date basis: 

The Australian Dollar has now leapfrogged the Norwegian Krone into first place!

AUD is also the only G10 currency that has risen against the US dollar (+0.2%) since the Feb 17th article.

Also since that Feb 17th article, major metals and commodities have risen as well:

In light of all the data and figures shared above, perhaps the most important question to ponder:

Did you miss out all on those gains over the past week?

Stay up-to-date and inspired with fresh trading ideas and opportunities in our 

Beginner

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New record highs for Stock Indices; 2026 leaders maintain outperformance

Can Nvidia earnings punch past tariff fears? This week's events could unlock big opportunities for you.

At the onset of the week, global economies are wrestling once again with tariff uncertainties.

Last Friday (Feb 20th), the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs - 

At the time of writing this Monday, Feb 23rd:

Traders, investors, even governments worldwide must navigate this latest bout of tariff uncertainties in a week that still hosts top-tier macroeconomic events.

Still, this week's scheduled events could in turn produce massive not-to-be-missed trading and investing opportunities across various asset classes.

The world's most valuable company is set to unveil its latest quarterly financial results 

after US markets close on Wednesday, February 25th.

Options markets predict this stock could move 4.4% up/down after its earnings announcements.

Of late, the AI narrative has swung between concerns over AI spending's eventual ROI, versus AI's disruptive nature that could upend entire industries (think: real estate, insurance brokers, wealth managers, etc.)


NOTE: Given NVIDIA's sheer size, with a market cap of US$ 4.6 trillion, the market's reaction to its earnings may shift broader US stock indices as well, such as the 

The Japanese Yen remains the biggest loser (down 3.1%) over the past 12 months among G10 currencies against the US dollar. However, JPY has strengthened back to around its 100-day SMA vs. USD of late.

NOTE: USDJPY falls when the Yen is gaining against the US dollar, and vice versa.

Besides tariff fears, here are this week's major events that could rock 

NOTE: Markets currently predict a 70% chance that the BoJ will hike rates in April 2026.

 to rebound off 200-week simple moving average?

Prices of the world's biggest cryptocurrency have largely moved sideways in recent weeks, trading within sub-$70k territory and still about 

Although bears have been firmly in control since the October liquidation event, traders will be keeping a close watch on

 Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (SMA)

 - a critical long-term support for Bitcoin prices.

For more TradFi trading ideas and inspiration, tune in to our 

with Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, and Brandon Hong, trader and influencer, on 

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3 Assets to Watch: Feb 23-27

Markets could be rocked by today's key US economic data and a crucial Supreme Court ruling.

), has surged to its highest level since August 1st, 2025.

Oil prices spiked after US President Donald Trump says Iran has 10-15 days to reach a nuclear deal, even as the US ramps up its military presence in the region.

Markets are driving oil prices higher on fears that military action in the Middle East could threaten global oil supplies (making oil harder to come by).

After all, the region produces about a third of the world's total supply of oil.

ECONS 101: Prices tend to rise when supply becomes lesser, assuming demand stays constant.

Still, seasoned oil market watchers would be well aware that geopolitical risks tend to fade out of prices rather swiftly.

Although these US-Iran tensions may have longer to play out, markets will have little qualm swiftly bringing oil prices back down on signs of positive developments surrounding an Iran nuclear deal.

Even if tensions do escalate, any further spikes in oil prices may prove short-lived, unless oil supplies out of the Middle East see a lasting and significant disruption. 

Walmart falls 1.4% on cautious US economic outlook

Before US markets opened yesterday, the world's biggest retailer announced its latest quarterly financial results and also its earnings outlook.

When US markets opened yesterday (Thursday, Feb 19) ...

Walmart shares fell 1.38% for the day, and as much as 4.25% during the cash session, though less than the 

The post-earnings declines also lost Walmart its status within the so-called "Trillion-Dollar club", with its market cap now less than US$ 1 trillion.

Markets may yet be rocked by these 2 major events slated for later today (Friday, Feb 20th)

1) US December PCE and 4Q GDP data: 1:30PM UTC time

The US Personal Consumption Expenditure index is the Federal Reserve's preferred way to measure 

Here's what economists predict for this top-tier economic data release:

If so, 0.3% would be faster growth than November 2025's 0.2% month-on-month number

If so, 2.8% would match November 2025's year-on-year number

If so, 0.3% would be faster growth than November 2025's 0.2% Core PCE month-on-month number

If so, 2.9% would be faster growth than November 2025's 2.8% y/y number

(updated from the 3% median forecasts by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, we cited in 

If so, 2.8% would be notably slower economic growth than 4.4% in Q3 2025

Gold, stock indices, and cryptos may move lower if sluggish US economic growth, along with still-stubborn inflation, prevents the Fed from lowering US interest rates this year.

2) US Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs

SCOTUS has returned from a four-week recess, and is set to issue opinions on President Trump's trade tariffs on Feb 20th, 24th, and 25th.

If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, that could alleviate US economic pressures as tariffs are estimated to cost importers over US$ 16 billion per month.

, even though markets are aware that the White House may have other legal tools at its disposal to reinstate trade tariffs.

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Oil soars to 6-month high on US-Iran tensions. Brace for "freaky" Friday?

Watch these 3 big events before the weekend.

Risk appetite is creeping back into markets as AI enthusiasm stirs a tech rally, lifting stocks and giving Bitcoin a modest bounce. 

But don't let today's slight green candlestick fool you: 

Bitcoin is still on track for its longest losing streak since 2022.

Crypto prices are unwilling to draw too much inspiration from news that the likes of 

 long a crypto skeptic, just revealed that he now owns Bitcoin, albeit a "very, very limited" amount.

Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala Investment Co.

, has increased its exposure to the world's biggest crypto, via ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in Q4 2025.

But spot Bitcoin prices apparently didn't get the memo, at least not yet.

Why Crypto Isn't Following Risk-On Moves?

US-listed crypto ETFs saw about US$ 360 million withdrawn last week - marking a 4th straight week of net outflows.

According to a new report from crypto investment firm and market maker Keyrock, Treasury bill issuance is the primary liquidity metric that impacts Bitcoin's price.

Every 1% change in global liquidity levels impacts BTC's price by 7.6% the following business quarter, with Treasury bill issuances having an 80% correlation with Bitcoin prices.

In short, if liquidity isn't flowing, Bitcoin isn't pumping.

The global oil benchmark surged 4.1% yesterday (Wed, Feb 18) following news reports of looming US military action against Iran. 

Such a conflict may threaten global oil prices, sending prices higher.

At the time of writing, the global oil benchmark is embarking on its 3rd attempt to test the 

The US dollar strengthened after the latest 

 were released yesterday (Wed, Feb 18) - 

The minutes from the late-January FOMC meeting suggested that the Fed may have to contemplate 

Talk of US rate hikes is a surprise shift from the Fed rate cuts that have long dominated market expectations.

 (British Pound vs. US dollar) tumbling below our 

against the "buck" so far in February 2026 (GBPUSD+ down 1.4% month-to-date).

NOTE: A currency tends to strengthen at the idea of its country's interest going up/staying higher.

A daily close above the 50-day SMA could see the SP500 re-test the 7,000 psychological level for resistance once more.

There's cautious optimism in stock markets as AI overspending fears fade, but crypto remains under pressure from persistent outflows and a lack of liquidity.

What Could Rock Markets Before the Weekend?

before US markets open today (Thursday, Feb 19)

when US markets open today (following Walmart's latest quarterly earnings).

A 6% post-earnings move is the updated figure, bigger than the 5% number cited in our 

2) US Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs: 

Gold, stock indices, and cryptos may move 

 if sluggish US economic growth, along with still-stubborn inflation, prevents the Fed from lowering US interest rates this year.

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Bitcoin set for 5th weekly decline, but stocks are rising. Can these upcoming events flip the script for cryptos?

Discover which token has soared over 100%, despite market sentiment in "extreme fear".

Markets are stuck in neutral as much of Asia celebrates 

 leaving traders to navigate thin liquidity and mixed signals.

The SP500's 100-day SMA has been a critical support level we'd highlighted since last week.

Markets will be keeping an eye on the  minutes from the Fed's late-January FOMC meeting, due 7:00PM UTC today (Wed, Feb 18th). 

The Fed's policy outlook (i.e. when the next Fed rate cut may happen) remains a key driver of global financial markets.

The recent selling pressure on riskier assets, tied to artificial intelligence, appears to be stabilizing.

Yet, investor sentiment remains fragile, especially for crypto markets:

Harvard University investing into Ethereum

 for the first time ever, counting the world's 2nd biggest crypto among its US$ 82.5 billion worth of assets, has so far failed to excite 

 is still mired below the psychological $2100 level with its 14-day SMA acting as immediate resistance.

Overall, markets are still waiting on a fresh directional catalyst to move prices one way or the other.

However, even amidst lacklustre market sentiment, there are still 

Bitcoin still below $70k, Gold rebounds, GBPUSD+ hits target ahead of Fed meeting minutes

You might be surprised at which assets have gotten a head start this year.

, major assets are starting off the new lunar year in the red:

The British Pound is weakening after it was announced that the UK unemployment rate in Q4 2025 has reached its highest levels since the pandemic!

This was a key event risk for GBPUSD+ we had 

(NOTE: Major G10 currencies, such as EUR, CAD, and AUD are also edging lower against the US dollar, though less so than GBP).

While this may not be the sort of "auspicious red" colour often associated with the lunar new year, it's still worth highlighting 

 of late for various assets offered within the Bybit universe.

 in the lead up to this first day of the Lunar New Year, along with their long-term (12-month) outlooks:

2026 winners, so far (and 12-month forecasts)

*12-month forecasts below have been derived from Bloomberg's models and surveys of Wall Street analysts and economists

NOTE: All % figures below represent year-to-date performance

potential gains* forecasted for Nikkei225 over next 12 months

potential gains* forecasted for Hang Seng Index over next 12 months

 generally outperforming their Western counterparts so far this year:

 in potential gains forecasted over the next 12 months*.

Best-performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far in 2026:

potential gains* vs. US dollar forecasted over next 12 months

Of course, much has been made about Gold and Silver's stunning surge earlier this year.

Bloomberg's FX model forecasts that gold may even 

 implying another 27% in potential upside* over next 12 months

- latest 12-month target price may be released after Caterpillar's next quarterly earnings announcement due end-April

 (which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average index)

 potential gains* forecasted over next 12 months

Although prices have been languishing so far in 2026, we still maintain our 

, barring a fundamental shift in the crypto outlook.

Best performers so far in 2026, and their 12-month forecasts. Year of the Horse: Can they gallop higher?

Despite holidays across the Americas through Asia, these key market events could spark big trading/investing opportunities.

Global markets are set to have a holiday-thinned week, with major economies shut for various parts of this week:

At the onset of this trading week, major assets are little changed and holding around key technical indicators:

Even with the market's schedule disrupted by the holidays, there are still major events and potential trading/investing opportunities to keep an eye out for this week:

Bloomberg's FX forecast model = 80% chance GBPUSD trades between 1.3507 - 1.3779 this week.

3 Assets to Watch: Feb 16 - 20

Yesterday's selloff across various assets sets up a nervous prelude to Friday's US inflation report.

, we had sounded an optimistic note for risk assets following last Friday's (Feb 6th) rebound for stock indices and cryptos.

However, such risk-taking appetite was dented as the week progressed.

, which forced markets to dilute bets for Fed rate cuts.

However, Wednesday's reaction to the NFP was relatively muted compared to yesterday's (Thursday, Feb 12) declines:

The broader CoinDesk 20 index is also catching a slight lift, though broader crypto sentiment is still wallowing in "extreme fear".

"The SP500 may re-test its 100-day SMA for critical support once more if markets sense that future Fed rate cuts are harder to come by ..."

Why did markets fall on Thur, Feb 12? It was all rather odd.

What's rather puzzling about Thursday's price action is there was no clear outright catalyst for yesterday's selloff. 

Whatever the reason, Thursday's "odd" selloff now sets up a nervy countdown to the January US inflation data's release due 1:30 PM UTC today (Fri, Feb 13)

US CPI Countdown: Markets Already Reacting. Are You?

Here's how big, round numbers can have a psychological impact on prices.

The latest US jobs report was released just yesterday (Wed, Feb 11) - and it was a shocker!

This latest display of resilience in the US jobs market prompted markets to lower bets for a Fed rate cut in June 2026.

 lower than the 100% odds accorded as of Tue, Feb 10 - the day prior to the NFP's release.

, and compare it against how your favourite/closely-watched asset fared in the 6 hours after the NFP release.

On the penultimate day of this trading week, we see how the trade setups for the 

 serve as fresh reminders as to how big, round numbers can impact prices, and the psychology of markets.

 got to within 0.065% (4.57 index points) of the 7,000 line, before this big, round number then exerted strong psychological resistance once more, as it has done on multiple occasions since mid-January.

2) Brent Crude Oil surpasses upside scenario, but bulls thwarted at $71/bbl price level.

We expected a breakout in Brent Crude Oil Cash (

), but instead of the downside breakout we'd expected, this global oil benchmark

UPDATE: Since today's report was first published, Brent oil has pulled further below the $70/bbl level. 

The IEA revealed the global oil stockpiles in 2025 grew an "astonishing" 477 million barrels - its fastest pace since the 2020 pandemic. 

The IEA report was a key event for oil markets this week, cited in our "3 Assets to Watch" article published Monday, Feb 9th.

Why is oil rising this week? Here are 3 reasons:

- A resilient US jobs market is thought to deter the Fed from cutting interest rates.

- A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country's rates staying high/not going down as fast.

- Oil is priced in US dollars. Hence, a weaker US dollar tends to send oil prices higher, and vice versa.

3) Bitcoin pares surge from last Friday, Feb 6th

Cryptos are still struggling for direction, with Bitcoin (

Among major altcoins, only these 3 have week-to-date gains at the time of writing (per Bloomberg data): 

For comparison, Bitcoin is down 4.4% so far this week.

The pivotal US inflation data is due to be released tomorrow (Friday, Feb 13) @ 1:30PM UTC.

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