On March 19th, silver even briefly erased all of its year-to-date gains.

) plunged to their lowest levels in 6 weeks respectively, before rebounding.

At the time of writing, XAUUSD is attempting to stabilise after falling as much as 7.5% yesterday (Thur, Mar 19), when it also tested its 

 for critical support for the first time since August 2025.

For further context on Gold's recent performance:

Similarly, Silver fell as much as 14.5% yesterday (Thur, Mar 19), trading below its own 100-day SMA for the first time since April 2025 - in the aftermath of President Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement.

At the time of writing, XAGUSD has resurfaced back above the psychologically-importat $70 level, though it still trading below its 100-day SMA and still around its lowest since February 6th.

On March 19th, Silver even briefly erased all of its year-to-date gains, just like it did back on February 6th.

For further context on Silver's recent performance:

Gold and Silver's declines, despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, are all that more notable given that precious metals are often viewed as "safe haven" assets.

NOTE: Historically, a "safe haven" asset helps investors preserve their wealth during times of heightened fear and uncertainties.

Why are precious metals tumbling despite the Iran war?

1) Markets expect no more Fed rate cuts in 2026

Gold and Silver prices tend to go down at the thought of US interest rates going up, or staying elevated.

, markets have greatly slashed bets for Fed rate cuts in 2026:

Hence, the thought of US interest rates staying elevated, or not going down as fast as previously thought, has in turn pulled down Gold and Silver prices.

2) Strong Dollar Pressures Precious Metals

Historically, Gold and Silver have had an inverse relationship with the US dollar i.e. when the US dollar goes up, precious metals go down, and vice versa.

Despite its recent declines this week, the benchmark 

has strengthened about 1.7% since its closing price on Friday, February 27th - before the first US-Israeli strikes against Iran.

A stronger "greenback" makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers, which leads to weaker demand for the likes of gold and silver.

3) "Inflation hedge" and "safe havens" paradox: markets hunt for alternatives

The ongoing Middle East conflict has sent oil prices soaring, which in turn has the world bracing for an 

And precious metals have long been considered a time-tested way to "hedge" (offset the effects) against soaring consumer prices.

However, rising oil prices, which could ultimately fuel (pardon the pun) soaring inflation, has forced major central banks such as the 

US Federal Reserve (a.k.a. The Fed), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB)

NOTE: For most major economies, a central bank's primary tool for cooling down inflation is to raise interest rates.

In essence, the threat of rising interest rates has prompted markets to look beyond gold and silver's long-held roles as "safe haven" and "inflation hedge".

Where to next for Gold and Silver prices?

Here's the latest forecasted trading range for Gold (

And the latest forecasted trading range for Silver (

For those interested in precious metals, this volatility underscores the importance of monitoring, among many factors:

... when trading gold and silver, which have long been popular among throngs of traders and investors around the world.

Beginner

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Here's why Gold and Silver sank to 6-week low, despite Middle East conflict.

20 hours, 4 powerful central banks = trading opportunities not to be missed?

Get ready for a blockbuster period in global markets! 

Four of the world's most powerful central banks are announcing policy decisions over a 20-hour span:

 by any of these major central banks this week; doing so would be a major shock for markets worldwide!

Why central bank policy meetings matter for traders?

Central bank decisions, and future plans, on interest rates drive major moves across practically every major asset class in global markets.

These moments create prime trading opportunities as markets react instantly to policy signals.

This makes major FX pairs a trader's delight for capturing the market-moving moments/comments/tones/signals when Powell, Ueda, Lagarde, and Bailey reveal their policy plans. 

Federal Reserve: Will Fed Chair Powell Signal No Cuts This Year?

NOTE: The Federal Open Market Committee is the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve, comprising 12 voting members at the  that decides where to set interest rates.

Here's what the dot plot looked like in December 2025, with the median estimate showing just 1 rate cut in 2026.

Key question: Will the Fed still cut rates this year, or stand pat for months?

After all, the Middle East conflict has sent oil prices soaring and gas prices spiking, which could lead to an inflation shock in the world's largest economy.

NOTE: A central bank raises interest rates, or keeps them elevated, as the primary tool to cool down inflation.

A currency tends to rise at the thought of its country's interest rates moving up/staying higher, and vice versa.

Bank of Japan (BoJ): Hawkish Hints or Steady Hold?

Key question: Can the BoJ press ahead with its intended rate hikes?

 USDJPY has already fallen (JPY strengthening vs US dollar) about 0.5% so far this week, towards the 

The yen's week-to-date gains lag its G10 peers, as JPY faces downward pressure from fundamental drivers including Japan's energy dependence and the petrodollar system.

Bank of England (BoE): Cuts Delayed, or Cancelled?

Key question: Will UK rate cuts be cancelled, or just delayed?

The BoE faces a challenging backdrop: a weakening labor market suggests cuts are needed, while inflation risks from rising energy costs argue for staying put.

 The pound has advanced 0.9% against the US dollar so far this week, though is being resisted around its 14-day simple moving average (SMA).

Still, this FX pair nicknamed "cable" is moving closer to the 

European Central Bank (ECB): Rate Hikes Back on the Table?

Key question: How much will soaring energy prices reshape the ECB's next steps?

The ECB faces a delicate balancing act as surging energy costs threaten to reignite inflation across the eurozone.

 The euro has strengthened nearly 1% against the US dollar so far this week, moving closer to the 

 (also around where its 14-day SMA currently resides)

2.png

FX Traders' Guide: March 18-19 Rate Decisions by Fed, BoJ, BoE, and ECB

BTC briefly broke above $76k today. But macro and technical challenges still lie ahead. 

Markets remain focused on the ongoing Middle East conflict, as rising oil prices stoke fears of an inflation shock worldwide.

Despite the heightened uncertainties at present, so far this month, cryptos have quietly outperformed other major assets, except oil of course;

(month-to-date performance, as of March 17th)

Since bouncing off the $60k level on February 6th, BTC has climbed as much as 26.6%, with such price gains igniting fresh optimism across crypto markets.

Institutional players and whales appear to be wading back in:

The US$1.5 trillion-dollar (BTC's current market cap) question on every trader's mind: 

Perhaps the prudent stance is to say, not just yet.

Although Bitcoin has technically entered a new bull market again, we've actually seen a similar surge just a few months ago - which proved to be a 

Looking at the chart above once more, BTC climbed as much as 

 between the November 21st intraday low ($80,607.90) through that January 21st intraday high ($97,963.20). Yet those gains didn't hold, with BTC then going on to plummet to $60k in February 2026.

And for proper context, Bitcoin remains over 40% below its all-time intraday high of $126,150 registered on October 6th, 2025, despite today's spike to a 6-week high.

NOTE: An asset enters a "bull market" when it has risen by 20% or more from a recent low.

The longer the Middle East conflict persists, the odds of soaring oil prices stoking inflation worldwide may rise.

Once markets are forced to reckon with a global inflation shock, such a reality should force risk assets, including cryptos, to tumble lower.

Recall the previous ill-fated "bull-market", which peaked on January 14th - BTC was strongly resisted at its 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

Hence, Bitcoin has to convincingly overcome its 100-day SMA, around the $80,000 psychologically-important level, before it can send a more definitive bullish message.

The evidence suggests we're witnessing a significant inflection point, but calling an absolute bottom remains premature. 

The combination of relentless institutional accumulation, sustained ETF inflows, and technical momentum indicators paints an increasingly bullish picture.

However, macro headwinds continue to inject volatility into risk assets and cloud the near-term outlook.

For market participants with healthier risk appetites, the message is clear: 

Accumulation may be the smart play at these levels, but be wary of future bouts of volatility

3.png

Bitcoin hits 6-week high! Time to get pumped?

Are the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ bracing for an inflation shock?

The Middle East conflict is showing no signs of abating, and is still influencing major asset prices this Monday, March 16th:

Further occupying the market's attention this week, amid the still-raging war, are the 

 that are set to hold their respective key policy meetings this week, including these big 4:

To be clear, NONE of these 4 major central banks listed above are expected to adjust their respective rates this week - anything else would be a massive shocker!

Instead, markets are ready to react to any sign whether these major central banks are bracing for an 

 and how they might each respond with interest rates.

With the above in mind, here are 3 major FX pairs to watch this week:

Bloomberg's FX forecast model: 76% chance 

NOTE: USDJPY recently hit its highest levels since July 2024.

Bloomberg's FX forecast model: 75.5% chance 

1.png

3 Major FX Pairs to Watch: March 16-20

BTC at 1-week high, gold still sideways, and one FX pair now highest since mid-2024

Markets are trying to catch their breath heading into the weekend after a volatile week dominated by the Middle East conflict.

Why is safe haven gold so lacklustre amid Middle East conflict?

Since February 27th, spot gold is actually lower by 3.7%.

In our report published Sunday, March 1st - the day before TradFi markets were due to re-open after the first US-Israel attacks against Iran - here's what we had cautioned:

, markets have significantly unwound bets for Fed rate cuts in 2026, which in turn dampens gold's allure.

The benchmark US dollar index (DXY) has climbed 2.5% since February 27th's close.

The "greenback" has also advanced against all of its G10 and Asian peers over the past 2 weeks.

BTC and TRUMP haven't done this since Jan 2026

Techincal traders, also bulls (those hoping prices will go higher) would also note that ...

Bitcoin is now testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for immediate resistance for the first time since late-January 2026.

TRUMP is rising following the announcement that the top 297 holders of this token will be invited for lunch at Mar-a-Lago, featuring the US President as the keynote speaker, on April 5th, 2026 - similar to last year's event.

Tradable as TRUMPUSDT and TRUMPUSDC, this token for TRUMP: THE CRYPTO PRESIDENT represents a community that claims to celebrate courage and strength. 

The movement was sparked by President Trump’s defiance on July 13, 2024, when his iconic "FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT" battle cry has since turned into a memorable meme of the century.

Amidst the ongoing Middle East conflict, President Trump's political will is set to be tested in what could be a drawn-out gruelling battle against the Iranian regime.

Perhaps more pertinently, monitoring by Lookonchain points to some 4.5 million TRUMP tokens, worth about US$ 15.7 million, being withdrawn from Binance by 4 addresses - including 3 newly created wallets.

Such bullish activity, along with those wishing to get physically closer to POTUS leading up to the April 25th luncheon, likely pushed up the spot token's prices, which are now testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for immediate resistance.

Besides Oil, which assets are "winning" in this Middle East conflict?

Oil markets shrug off historic IEA reserves release.

The global oil benchmark, Brent oil (Bybit: 

), briefly blasted back above $100 a barrel as the Middle East conflict enters a dangerous new phase:

These latest developments in the Iran war are feeding fears of a global oil shock.

Brent briefly skyrocketed over 10% before paring gains to trade around the mid-$90/bbl range at the time of writing.

Oil's surge is also denting broader risk appetite:

The Euro and British Pound are set for 3rd straight day of losses against the US dollar respectively, as the latter strengthens on safe-haven flows.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to discharge 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves, the largest reserves distribution in history!

The goal of sending out more oil into the world is to bring down crude prices. 

However, the IEA's agreed release did little to calm markets, because:

Hence, after the IEA's announcement, oil prices jumped anyway as traders realized the supply disruption is far from over.

What's Next: Inflation Shock, Fed Paralysis, and More Pain

Oil-price movements will likely be largely dependent on geopolitical developments in the Middle East. 

The risk of disruptions to energy supplies from the region is likely to remain high if the conflict continues, particularly for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply.

Sustained high oil prices may push some central banks toward a hawkish monetary policy pivot - raising interest rates or at least eschewing rate cuts. 

As things stand, Brent highest-ever price was recorded at 

Brent hits $100 again! Will Middle East crisis send Brent to new record high?

Tap for economists' forecasts and predicted price moves for your favourite assets.

The February US inflation data, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released at 12:30PM UTC today (Wed, March 11).

Markets are aware that this CPI print is for February - which doesn't take into account the potential oil shock since the Middle East conflict erupted on February 28th.

Still, investors, traders, and even policymakers will be closely monitoring the US inflation impulses leading up to the Middle East conflict.

US inflation data directly impacts the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve - the world's most influential central bank. 

The market's forecasts on the Fed's next moves, based on the incoming CPI data, can reposition trillions of dollars across forex, stocks, and even crypto prices worldwide within minutes of the release. 

Big CPI surprises create explosive volatility, which in turn may offer traders opportunities to profit from rapid price swings in forex, indices, and bonds.

In short, CPI release days can produce some of the most action-packed trading sessions of the month.

Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

If so, 2.4% will match January's year-on-year number

If so, 0.3% would be higher than January's 0.2% month-on-month number

If so, 2.5% will match January's core CPI year-on-year number

If so, 0.2% core CPI will be slightly lower than January's 0.3% month-on-month core CPI number

Currently, markets only expect a 58% chance that the Fed can cut rates TWO times more in 2026 - a scenario which had been fully expected (100% odds) by markets just a month ago (as of Feb 11th).

How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?

 the CPI release @ 12:30 PM UTC Wed, Mar 11th:

US inflation due today - Can CPI help markets overcome Middle East conflict fears?

We warned you about triple-digit oil since last week.

Oil prices have exploded past $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022!

) - the global oil benchmark - even surged as high as $119.713 on Monday before settling around $107 at the time of writing.

) - the US oil benchmark - almost touched hit $119.50, before easing back closer to the psychologically-important $100/bbl level. 

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, is effectively choking global oil flows. 

Econs 101: Prices move up when supply goes down, assuming all else (including demand) remains equal.

The world's biggest oil importers, especially in Asia, are getting hammered. 

, the largest oil importer globally, along with 

, all rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude. 

Given this oil shock, no surprise that on Monday, March 9th:

These Asian benchmark stock indexes are set for their biggest one-day drops respectively since President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements in April 2025.

When oil hit $100 in 2022, Russia's Ukraine invasion and sanctions were the drivers. That was a supply disruption you could work around. 

The Strait of Hormuz closure represents the worst disruption since the 1970s — a physical blockage of a waterway handling roughly 20% of global oil trade. 

Even OPEC's spare capacity can't offset this loss.

Strategic petroleum reserves are government-owned emergency stockpiles of crude oil maintained to cushion supply shocks. 

The Financial Times today reported that G7 finance ministers would discuss a joint release of their oil reserves.

That phone call among G7 finance ministers is slated for 

This type of joint-releases of strategic stockpiles has only ever happened 5 times before, including the 2 times in response to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.

However, the math doesn't fully erase global concerns:

In short, even massive releases from strategic reserves may provide only temporary relief.

Oil at $100 also threatens to reignite global inflation and upend central bank plans. 

Global bond markets tumbled today as investors priced in higher inflation and deteriorating growth i.e. 

For the Federal Reserve, which hoped to resume rate cuts by year-end, the oil shock complicates matters dramatically. 

Fed officials already signaled rates should stay steady amid sticky inflation, with markets now expecting a

 less-than-50% chance of the Fed being able to cut rates twice more in 2026.

That's in stark contrast to 2 more Fed rate cuts in 2026 fully expected by markets just this time last month.

Traders now fully price in two 25-basis-point ECB rate HIKES in 2026, a stunning reversal from days ago when rate cuts were expected.

Goldman Sachs warns the rally isn't over. With no de-escalation signs, markets are pricing in prolonged supply crunches. 

if Tehran completely blocks off the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period of time.

For consumers, expect to pay higher prices for goods and services (inflation). 

For investors, a harsher market environment looms. 

Until the Strait reopens, $100+ oil may be the new reality — one that strategic reserves can soften but not solve, threatening stagflation in major economies, and force central banks into an uncomfortable policy U-turn.

Oil hits $100! Why is the world freaking out?

24/7 markets allowed traders to react early as Middle East conflict broke out

A week removed from the initial attacks in this ongoing Middle East conflict, we revisit the timeline during those early stages, and how 

24/7 markets allowed alert traders to react

And those higher volumes, which began at 1:15AM ET, continued through the announcement over an hour later at 2:30AM ET.

Such muted price reaction to confirmation of Khamenei's death suggested that maximum geopolitical uncertainty had been being priced in from initial strikes.

By midday Saturday, the onchain markets had fully absorbed the shock and were trading retracement rather than anticipating further catalysts.

This gives an insight into 24/7 markets and highlights crypto as the most liquid market to navigate geopolitical tension over weekends.

went into the weekend around the same price as 

– closing Friday's session at $5,267.5 vs $5,280.19 respectively, with a spread of about $13. 

Within a few hours of the Iran strike, volumes substantially increased and the perpetual futures surged to as high as 

Funding rates tell a story of conviction, with rates spiking positive immediately after the strikes, indicating longs are willing to pay 0.40% every 8 hours equivalent at the peak to hold positions. 

This quickly flipped negative as initial panic subsided and participants started to sell.

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