Bybit's SP500 has shown far less volatility compared to precious metals, even as Gold fulfilled yesterday's "upside scenario".

The recent crashes in Gold and Silver are still fresh in the market's collective memory.

Today though (Tuesday, Feb 3), both these precious metals are rebounding as market participants enter to "buy the dip" (

At the time of writing, Gold has fulfilled our upside scenario published yesterday (Mon, Feb 2), and rebounded back above the psychologically-important $4900 level.

However, amidst the rapid declines in commodities, currencies, and even cryptos, US stock indices have been largely unperturbed.

is less than 0.2% away from posting a new record high!

 tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index - which is the most popular measure of the overall US stock market's performance, specifically via some 500 of the biggest industry leaders in the US.

 - which measures market expectations for volatility for the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.

Despite the recent turmoil across other major assets, the VIX has remained largely unperturbed, still well below the 20 level which typically denotes "stability".

At 16.34, the VIX is now also below its average reading over the past 12 months of 18.95 (read: the S&P 500 is expected to show lower-than-usual volatility going into March 2026).

As we know, a hallmark of "safe haven" assets is its price stability during times of market turmoil.

To be clear, the S&P 500 is not considered a safe haven asset, and can be prone to wild price swings (volatility).

However, the SP500's recent stability relative to precious metals, FX and cryptos perhaps can offer some solace to investors and traders who are still raw from the violent price swings of late.

3 major events that could move the SP500 this week (Feb 3 - 6)

Google's parent company is due to release its financial results from Q4, along with its latest earnings outlook, after US markets close on Wednesday, February 4th.

From its most recent closing price (Monday, Feb 2):

are predicted to move 4.9% up/down after its earnings announcement.

Given its market cap of US$ 4.15 trillion, which is about US$ 1 trillion bigger than Microsoft, the market's reaction to Alphabet's past and future earnings has enough heft to sway the broader S&P 500 index as well.

NOTE: Recall how Microsoft's 10% plunge on Thursday, Jan 29th - after its own earnings announcement - in turn dragged the SP500 down to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

This tech giant is due to release its financial results from Q4, along with its latest earnings outlook, after US markets close on Thursday, February 5th.

 are predicted to move 6.5% up/down after its earnings announcement.

NOTE: Amazon, with its bigger forecasted post-earnings move relative to Alphabet's, is also featured among our 

3) Feb 6th: US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls - NFP)

The US labour market is the primary driver of the world's biggest economy, and holds great influence over what the Federal Reserve - the world's most influential central bank - decides on US interest rates.

Bloomberg Intelligence predicts a measly January NFP headline number of 0-30k, while the US jobless rate is slated to remain at 4.4% - matching December's 2025 unemployment rate.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may offer cheer for the SP500 and solidify its quest for new record highs, and vice versa.

Beginner

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After Gold and Silver's crash, is this the new safe haven?

Falling prices still present trading opportunities. Here are two strategies across 3 major assets that could be used this week.

Markets are a sea of red on the first trading day of February 2026:

Monday's (Feb 2) selloff are extending last Friday's dramatic fall. Jan 30th saw silver's biggest-ever intraday decline, while it was Gold's biggest intraday decline since the early 1980s

For seasoned market watchers, this pullback brings these precious metals' prices to more sensible levels, after their mind-blowing surge last month (Jan 2026).

Rumours began swirling in the latter part of last week, before confirmed by Trump's post on Truth Social, that the President has made a 

 - if confirmed by the Senate - will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when the latter steps down in May.

Warsh is known for his "hawkish bias" in the past (preference for higher US interest rates) and was also a fierce critic of the Fed's balance sheet expansion, which now stands at around US$ 6.6 trillion.

As we had mentioned this past Friday (Jan 30th):

the idea of a less-dovish Fed Chair prompted a repricing across major asset classes ..."

Even amidst falling markets, there are still many trading opportunities, be it to go "short" (sell first, then buy back later to bet that prices will fall further), or "buy the dip" with hopes that prices will rebound.

At this dramatic onset of this new week/month, here are 

1) Gold to rebound off widely-followed technical indicator?

This is the first time gold prices has touched this widely-followed technical indicator since August 2025.

Even as markets digest the prospects of Fed Chair Warsh ...

2) Amazon stocks forecasted to move 7% up/down after earnings

This tech giant and AI behemoth is set to announce its latest quarterly results 

Once its Q4 financials have been released, Amazon stocks are forecasted to move 7% up/down.

We will share more key info and finer details in our Daily Bits on 

3) Bitcoin to rebound off April low? Or sink to 2024 levels?

 is rebounding off those April 2025 lows.

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Why Are Markets Falling? 3 Assets to Watch Amid Plunging Prices: Feb 2-6, 2026

Bitcoin slumps to 2-month low amid broader selloff across markets.

Instead, markets gave us a "turbulent Thursday", and risk assets are already headed for a "frail Friday"

For context, earlier this week we wrote about the 

And in case you missed any of these, other major assets also soared:

Much of the price moves listed above were driven by the 

 which sank to its weakest levels in almost 4 years.

Then, each of the assets listed above saw heightened volatility on Thursday (Jan 29), before extending declines today (Friday, Jan 30)!

 has sunken to a new year-to-date low after being resisted yet again at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) earlier this week.

US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded 3 straight months of net outflows, to the tune of about US$ 5.7 billion, while traders will be warily eyeing the big, round $80,000 for psychological support.

1) Trump's surprise pick for new Fed Chair

President Trump has teased an announcement slated today (Friday, Jan 30) on his new pick for the Fed Chair (the boss of the world's most influential central bank) - and it may not be who markets expected.

Just days ago, Polymarket odds showed BlackRock senior exec Rick Rieder leading the pack of Fed Chair candidates, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller also in the mix.

However, latest reports now suggest that the new Fed Chair could be former Fed Governor, 

Warsh is seen to be relatively more hawkish than the other leading candidates.

And we know that stocks, gold, even cryptos generally shudder at the thought of higher US interest rates (or rates not going down quickly).

prompted a repricing across major asset classes, and a 

Microsoft had a torrid Thursday, as it fell 10% and:

Microsoft shares tanked after its earnings announcement, 

, unveiled record spending on AI while growth for its Azure cloud-computing unit slowed quarter-on-quarter.

Microsoft's heavy investments into AI may not pay off, at least not spectacularly.

It remains to be seen whether the market's reaction to Apple's earnings, released after US markets closed yesterday (Thursday, Jan 29), will show that such concerns have subsided.

Apple announced record quarterly sales and better-than-expected earnings forecasts, though still warned of pressured margins due to rising prices of memory components.

But with US stock futures falling at the time of writing, with the 

 continuing their respective slides, this points at declines at the US stock market open.

President Trump is also escalating his threats against Iran, which is prompting fears of supply-side risks for 

Even so, with geopolitical unrest seen in various parts of the global stage, it appears to be adding to the general unease across global financial markets.

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Markets slide ahead of Trump's announcement on new Fed Chair

Commodities steal limelight as cryptos remain lacklustre.

Commodities are posting new record highs on this penultimate trading day of January 2026, boosted by the weaker US dollar.

Southeast Asian banking giant, OCBC, expected $5600 gold only by end-2026, while Goldman Sach's year-end target of $5400 has been smashed.

If this frenzy continues, spot gold may yet touch $6400 as per the Bloomberg model we cited in our outlook published earlier this week.

What's driving Gold, Silver, and Copper higher?

Note that these global commodities are each priced in US dollars i.e. XAU

makes these assets' prices more attractive for global investors.

Furthermore, these commodities are enjoying tailwinds from:

The buying mania stretches from London to Shanghai, attracting long-term believers and short-term speculators.

, which has been buying about 1 or 2 tons of golf per week, now boasting the 

 outside of banks and governments, is also likely adding to the momentum.

Still, such a stunning surge may require a healthy pullback soon, in order to set a more sustainable foundation for further gains.

Still, the price action across asset classes, from commodities to 

, offers trading opportunities aplenty for market participants who are willing to diversify and not miss out on outsized opportunities.

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Weaker US dollar sends Gold, Silver, even Copper to new record highs!

Check out the market forecasts for the next Fed rate cut, and the immediate post-earnings price reactions for Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple's stocks.

We had already outlined the key risks for this week in our 

Before we share more details and insights into today's potentially market-moving events, let's first do a 

1) SP500 posts new record high - as expected!

 has today posted never-seen-before prices above the psychologically-important 7,000 level.

This new record high fulfills the SP500 scenario 

SP500 has risen as much as 2.4% so far this week. And that's even before the big events for the week have transpired.

Stocks are climbing today (Mon, Jan 28) after the Netherlands-based ASML, Europe's AI poster child, announced record orders in Q4 for its most sophisticated chip-making machines. 

This news has further stoked AI euphoria and lifted tech stocks, including big tech companies included in the 

2) Nat Gas pulls back as expected - but yet to reach downside target

When we wrote Monday's article, Natural Gas (Bybit: 

At the time of writing, prices are trading at 4.866 - a decline of about 4.8%.

With today being the final trading day of the current NatGast active futures contract, with a rollover due tomorrow to the March contract that's currently priced at 3.70.

In what's set to be a pivotal week for markets, there was a glitch on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which hosts the most active US gas contract. The trading halt which typically lasts only 5 seconds, went on for 2 minutes.

And with US weather forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration pointing to a let up in the winter blast next week, it remains to be seen whether 

will make it all the way down to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

And now, onto the main events slated for today (Wednesday, Jan 28) ...

Fed drama ahead despite no-change to rates?

The US central bank is widely expected to keep US rates unchanged - anything else today would be a shocker!

However, markets are eager to receive any clues about when the next Fed rate cut might happen.

The Fed rate decision is due at 7:00PM UTC, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference set to begin 30 minutes later.

As things stand, markets now PREDICT an 82% chance that the next Fed rate cut will only happen in June, while 95% odds are being given to TWO Fed rate cuts total for 2026.

Also, look out for any comments during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference about the legal battles between the US central bank and the White House - that could rock markets as well.

Then, just hours after Chair Powell wraps up his press conference ...

Meta, Microsoft, Tesla earnings due after US markets close Wed, Jan 28.

These are the latest market forecasts for how each of these 

may react to their respective earnings announcements this week: 

The above are updated figures from the ones shared during our 

Still, it remains to be seen whether these incoming Big Tech earnings can sustain the uplift on tech stocks and US indexes after it shares its Q4 results and earnings outlook.

Wild Wednesday? SP500 hits new record high ahead of Fed decision, Big Tech earnings

Check out these end-2026 forecasts for spot gold.

) has posted yet another record high, even briefly breaching the $5100 level this week.

However, that big, round $5100 number is acting as a psychological resistance level for the time being.

Admittedly, $5k gold arrived sooner than expected, following our article titled 

Gold's surge even surprised banking titans, from OCBC to Goldman Sachs, smashing past their end-2026 targets of $4800 and $4900 respectively (see their updated end-2026 targets below) .

To put in proper context, gold has now advanced:

This comes after spot gold rose over 64% in 2025 - its biggest annual gain since 1979!

Here's an updated list of the main drivers behind gold's surge, though what we'd cited in 

Gold has roared higher in the new year, given the tide of rising geopolitical fears across markets.

Before the first month of 2026 has even come to a close, the world has already witnessed:

Reawakened turmoil on the geopolitical stage has sent investors scurrying towards safe havens, including gold.

The US dollar (as measured by the Bloomberg dollar index) has now reached its weakest levels since March 2022, while the benchmark US dollar index (DXY) is also threatening to do the same.

) denominated in US dollars, the weaker quote currency (right side of the pair) has helped fuel gold's prices.

Gold has benefitted as investors shed traditional currencies and sovereign bonds, from the US to Japan, amid growing concerns about 

And since gold doesn't have a counterparty, its value isn't tied to the credit rating of an economy or the success/failure of a government, unlike say stocks or bonds.

This places gold as a prime candidate for investors to shift their funds into gold as major concerns surround the governments of large economies.

The above-listed factors have fueled rising demand for gold, evident in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) net buying 1.4 million ounces of gold so far this year.

Even central banks' sustained purchases of gold have contributed to the price surge!

Options markets are turning increasingly bullish on gold prices, expecting higher prices ahead, while money managers are the most bullish on the precious metal since October.

Hedge funds and big-time speculators raised their net-long positions on gold to the highest in 16 weeks, according to CFTC data.

Here's a snapshot of gold price predictions for 

Overall, as long as the macro backdrop remains conducive, while central banks and ETF investors sustain their purchases, gold should have little trouble posting fresh all-time highs in 2026.

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