Learn Live ICYMI: Will Trump’s Inauguration Ignite Crypto's Next Big Rally?
In 2024, speculation of Donald Trump’s election win in the U.S. as well as the actual win itself were huge driving factors in Bitcoin’s price. However, activity has slowed leading up to his inauguration and transition to power. His inauguration sets the stage for both whale activity and institutional activity.
In the eighteenth episode of our Learn 101 livestream, we ask, “Will Trump’s Inauguration Ignite Crypto's Next Big Rally?”
Our series, Learn Live ICYMI, provides a recap of our Learn 101 livestreams, offering you comprehensive expertise and insights from leading figures in the crypto industry in case you miss the livestream.
Joining the livestream on Jan 14, 2025, were two distinguished guests: Brian, Head of Content at Santiment, as well as Shunyet Jan, Head of Derivatives Business and Institutional Sales at Bybit. Under the moderation of Sabrina Chua, Crypto Evangelist and SEO Editor at Bybit, this episode asks, “Will Trump’s Inauguration Ignite Crypto's Next Big Rally?”
Key Takeaways:
Institutional investors are largely the dominant market forces today. Retail investors react to the news of major price movements, but their impact on the market is typically less substantial than that of institutional investors.
Trump’s election win initially was a major driving factor in rising crypto prices. However, investors now seem to be waiting until after the inauguration to pick up activity.
Meme coins lag behind the Bitcoin cycle. Increased activity often indicates the peak of the cycle.
Market Sentiment & Key Narratives for 2025
Since the crypto rally at the end of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has pulled back slightly. Investors seem to be waiting to see what happens after Donald Trump’s inauguration. Brian at Santiment cites the common adage, “Buy the rumor, sell the news.” Looking back over the past year, many investors bought crypto in anticipation of major events, only to witness a price drop when those events materialized. He believes a similar scenario is playing out now — Trump, perceived as the pro-crypto candidate, created a bullish sentiment leading up to his election. Now, crypto whales are likely waiting for his inauguration and assessing whether the transition is smooth before making their next moves.
Brian emphasizes that while retail traders remain an important force in the crypto market, institutional activity has become the dominant driver due to sheer volume. Shunyet Jan echoes this view, pointing out that there’s huge pent-up demand from U.S. institutions to enter the crypto space. Bybit’s data reflects this shift: half of its institutional accounts were opened over the past year, signaling a dramatic uptick in institutional interest. However, many institutions appear to be waiting for clarity from the new U.S. administration before fully committing.
Institutional Moves and Retail Opportunities
Institutional activity is often seen as a stabilizing force, but large-scale moves can still cause price swings. Brian highlights MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases and its announcements as key drivers of recent price action. For retail traders, these institutional shifts create opportunities, and savvy traders take advantage of panic selling by buying the dips.
Jan reminds traders that crypto, like any other asset class, sees heightened retail activity during price swings driven by news events. He points out that, while institutions shape long-term trends, short-term movements are still heavily influenced by retail trading.
Solana vs. Ethereum: Changing Market Dynamics
Solana’s trading activity remains strong, and some view it as a potential competitor to Bitcoin. Jan attributes this to Ethereum’s ongoing issues with Layer 2 solutions, which Solana has largely avoided. He believes Solana’s growth potential may now be stronger than Ethereum’s.
Brian, however, takes a more balanced view. He acknowledges that while Ethereum has historically dominated in terms of projects built on its network, activity on Ethereum has dropped by 10% over the past six months, while Solana’s has increased by 3%. This suggests a shift, but he maintains that both networks remain viable in the long term.
Meme Coins and Market Cycle Signals
Brian notes that meme coins typically rally at the end of a market cycle. As Bitcoin reaches a peak, investors often rotate profits into meme coins, creating a strong indicator for analysts tracking cycle tops. If Bitcoin surges next week following Trump’s inauguration, Brian expects meme coins to follow suit. However, he warns that this shift also signals increased market risk.
MVRV Metrics and Investor Strategy
Currently, the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is negative, meaning that many investors are holding crypto at a loss. Brian explains that this serves as a probability metric — short-term MVRV is negative, but most assets remain positive over a 365-day MVRV. He recommends that investors decide whether they’re in for a short-term trade or a long-term hold, before making any moves.
Data-Driven Insights Into Emerging Crypto Sectors
Shunyet Jan observes that AI-driven movements in the crypto market are mirroring real-world activity, much like a meme coin rally. However, he believes that, while many AI-related projects may fade, some have the potential to survive and thrive. Caution is crucial for investors navigating this space.
Brian suggests a way to differentiate between AI projects that are mere trends, and those with real potential, by analyzing their market caps. He likens the current AI boom to the tech boom of the late 1990s, in which countless startups emerged but only a handful achieved long-term success.
Jan emphasizes the necessity of using crypto trading and analysis tools, comparing their indispensability to that of today’s internet. Just as those who fail to leverage the internet risk being left behind, traders who ignore advanced tools may struggle to keep pace with the market. He highlights the growing number of tools available and under development, stressing their importance for investors.
Brian agrees, pointing out that AI-powered trading tools provide efficiency and speed, helping traders make more informed and timely decisions.
When discussing global tokenization, Jan highlights the critical role institutions are playing in shaping this trend. He notes a rising interest in interest-bearing stablecoins, which are attracting more traditional investors. These assets serve as a safety net during market downturns, making them increasingly appealing as the market matures.
Risks & Challenges Ahead
Whale activity has recently slowed, which could be a signal for caution. Brian notes that with less whale activity, the market becomes more fragile, as smaller investors have a greater influence on price movements. However, whales can re-enter at any time, quickly regaining control and shifting market dynamics.
Looking ahead, speculation remains a key factor in shaping market risks. Jan points out that while HODLers seek projects that add real value to the ecosystem, speculators are more focused on market sentiment and short-term gains.
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is a well-known whale who has launched several meme coins. Brian highlights that retail traders closely follow Musk, often making trades based on his social media posts. While this can lead to volatility, Musk’s involvement in crypto has generally been positive, drawing more attention to the space and increasing investor participation.
Closing Thoughts
This Learn 101 livestream provided valuable insights into whether Trump’s inauguration could trigger crypto’s next big rally. As the market navigates uncharted territory, investors must balance opportunities with risks, staying informed and adaptable. With institutional interest rising, meme coins resurging and AI-driven trends shaping the landscape, 2025 is set to be a pivotal year for crypto. Whether the rally materializes or not, one thing is clear — those who stay ahead of the trends will have the best chance to capitalize on the market’s next big move.
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