Bybit Mastermind Live ICYMI: Crypto Options Trading in Uncertain Times
The cryptocurrency market has seen significant shifts in the current macro landscape. On the one hand, a new U.S. administration is coming up, and Bitcoin ETF developments are driving market sentiment. On the other hand, the market seems concerned about persistent inflation and a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve. This market environment could present both challenges and opportunities, which is why options trading could effectively help you hedge against downside risks and capitalize on volatility.
In this third episode of Bybit Mastermind Livestream, we discuss how the U.S. election outcome has reshaped crypto market expectations for 2025, where U.S. interest rates will head in the next 12–18 months and how traders can take advantage of options trading in this challenging market.
This edition of Mastermind Live ICYMI recaps the Nov 19, 2024 Mastermind livestream (in case you missed it), featuring experts from macroeconomic and derivatives trading backgrounds.
Our five guests were as follows:
Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, Matrixport
Janson Wang, Head of Trading, Cega
Tommy Chen, Founder and CEO, Typus Finance
Joe Takayama, Trader and Crypto YouTuber
Kendrick, Financial Product Manager, Bybit
Key Takeaways:
The market has high expectations of the incoming U.S. administration's delivery of crypto-related promises, including the establishment of a national BTC strategic reserve.
Inflation hedging remains a key narrative for BTC as interest rates are still relatively high, and more institutions prefer BTC over gold as a tool to hedge this risk.
The nonlinear nature of options trading offers higher flexibility of strategy and better capital efficiency than other forms of derivatives.
High Expectations of a Pro-Crypto U.S. Administration
The panel started with a discussion of how the U.S. election outcome has reshaped crypto market expectations for 2025. All the panelists expressed their optimism about the crypto market under a Trump administration, especially if the promise of establishing a national BTC strategic reserve materializes. The candidate took a pro-crypto stance during the campaign, and even launched a few crypto projects on his own, so he could be someone who understands the space.
Institutional adoption scaling could be something to look forward to. Janson Wang said, "The market has been talking about crypto's institutional adoption in the past two years, but this time, it's actually going to be a lot of institutional adoption driven by ETFs and traditional funds, and investors have shown strong interest in those products."
Tommy Chen added, "Crypto-related regulations will be opening up and leaning on a more friendly side, potentially encouraging more Wall Street players to participate in crypto."
However, there are also potential risks that all market participants should be aware of. Joe Takayama highlighted that "Trump has made a lot of promises during the campaign, and the market is expecting a lot of (positive) things will happen, and if the U.S. administration disappoints the market in some ways, there could be a downside risk."
Inflation and Interest Rates Outlook
U.S. inflation and interest rates are among macro traders' most watched factors. Since BTC is a macro asset now, these two factors also concern our panelists. Daniel Yu pointed out that the pressure of inflation remains intact, and interest rates in the U.S. are still at a relatively high level compared to historical data. That's why inflation hedging will still be a major narrative among institutional investors in 2025. He also added that BTC now appears as an alternative to gold as an inflation hedging tool.
With only one Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left in 2024 for the U.S. Federal Reserve after the November 25 bps cut, Janson added that according to the CME FedWatch, there's only a 50% chance that the Fed will cut another 25 bps of its benchmark interest rate in the December 2024 meeting, and an equal probability that it will maintain interest rates at current levels. He also emphasized that interest rate traders have been betting the Fed will only reduce interest rates an additional 25 to 50 bps in the coming three to four months — a lot less than previously expected — which could contribute to a strong dollar and affect BTC’s price.
Investors Could Be Underexposed
Despite many watchers directing their attention to the U.S. greenback, Joe Takayama expressed that it may not really affect the current crypto market at all — simply because crypto is a sentiment-driven asset, and market sentiment comes from the U.S. economy and how strong it is. He also added that many investors he knows are taking a lot less risk than they would like, which means they’re under-exposed and would need greater risk appetite to buy risk-on assets, such as BTC.
Why Trade Options? — And How to Capitalize on Volatility
The panel also discussed the advantages of options trading over other derivatives. Institutional traders generally prefer trading options in crypto, simply because of its volatile nature. For example, if a trader enters the market with perpetuals or futures, they could face liquidation or margin call risk, even when the price increases, but it doesn’t happen in options trading. Some of the panelists also shared that, as opposed to using options outright, they make a good complement to an overall investment portfolio and enhance their return profiles.
The panelists also discussed some of the possible options trading strategies for the current market, such as cash-covered put selling. On the one hand, traders can benefit from getting the underlying asset at a lower price if physical delivery is accepted. Otherwise, traders can earn a decent yield from the options premium. Kendrick also shared his insights, adding that traders might also consider a covered call and put selling combination, so that they can acquire the underlying asset at a lower entry price and, at the same time, use the option premiums from short options to cover the cost of the call options. This way, it's more like a tool for cash flow.
Other panelists also contributed valuable insights on their BTC options strategies. For example, if a trader is bullish on BTC over the medium-to-long term, they may consider a three-to-six-months call spread so that they can buy one out-of-the-money (OTM) call and sell another call with a higher strike price. However, if the price of BTC doesn't move much, the cost of time decay could be a concern.
Kendrick also highlighted some of the unique features of Bybit options, such as USDC-settled options contracts — which means traders can use USDC to buy or sell options contracts. In addition, Bybit has been working with leading liquidity providers to provide the best-in-class liquidity to both institutional and retail traders.
Conclusion
Options trading may look complicated at first glance, but as we navigate through uncertain market conditions, crypto options trading emerges not just as another trading instrument, but as a sophisticated tool for risk management and opportunity capture. Whether it’s strategic hedging, volatility plays or structured strategies, options provide traders with the ability to profit from market movements in any direction — a crucial advantage in today's environment. Follow the Options Section on Bybit Learn for more information.
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Disclaimer: Investing in cryptocurrencies and their derivatives involves substantial risk of loss, and isn’t suitable for every investor. This article provides facts for educational purposes only, and does not represent any financial advice. Prior to making any investment decisions, please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Our customer support team is available to assist you with any inquiries.