Learn Live ICYMI: Decoding Bitcoin’s Next Move Amid Trade Tensions
Given Donald Trump’s implementation of tariffs on countries around the world, markets have been shaken. This extends to the crypto market. Many investors wonder if Bitcoin’s current decline is the start of a trend, and perhaps an indication that altcoin season is approaching. Hence, the twentieth episode of our Learn 101 livestream: Tariffs vs. Bitcoin: What’s Next?
Our series Learn Live ICYMI provides a recap of our Learn 101 livestreams, offering you comprehensive expertise and insights from leading figures in the crypto industry, in case you miss the livestream.
Joining the livestream on Feb 12, 2025, were three distinguished guests:
Eamonn Gashier, Founder and CEO at Block Scholes
Andrew Melville, Head of Research at Block Scholes
Bene Lee, Retail Trading Lead at Bybit
Under the moderation of Racheal Koh, Global Content Marketing at Bybit, this episode explores the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Bitcoin and the potential for an altseason.
Key Takeaways:
While economic headwinds have a definite impact on the crypto markets, it’s too soon to tell if this is a trend, or simply a bump in the road for Bitcoin.
Investors in the crypto market need to identify signs of a developing altcoin market, and use risk management strategies to reduce their risk of loss.
In the currently changing and uncertain market, avoid making hasty decisions based on market narratives.
Trade War Domino Effect: Did Bitcoin Just Get Caught in the Crossfire?
Donald Trump’s new tariffs have impacted global markets, and with Bitcoin still trading below $100,000, the crypto markets appear to be feeling the strain as well. When asked if the market is overreacting, Bene Lee reminds us that the crypto space has historically seen worse sell-offs. He believes hedge funds are likely off-loading risk in response to market uncertainty. While this short-term reaction may seem exaggerated, it’s economically justified.
Eamonn Gashier cautions traders against reading too much into the current price movements. He notes that crypto often moves in tandem with U.S. hedge funds — when the funds shift, crypto prices follow. The tariffs are acting as a headwind for crypto, as they do for other risky assets. Gashier also points to regulatory developments and supply-demand dynamics as key drivers of Bitcoin’s value. Looking beyond the short-term noise, he views Bitcoin as a solid hedge against inflation in the medium-to-long term.
Gashier further emphasizes Bitcoin’s strength as a store of value over longer time horizons. In the short term, however, equity market trends will likely dominate Bitcoin’s price action, leading to volatility — but with an expected upward trend over time. He also highlights the concept of "sticky money" from institutional investors — capital that moves slowly, but signals strong market conviction. According to Gashier, institutional inflows and outflows can be a reliable indicator of market direction.
When asked if the current tariff situation signals a major market shift or just another bump in the road, Andrew Melville compares crypto to "the little train that keeps on going," pointing to ongoing interest from corporations, institutions and pension funds in adding crypto to their investment strategies. He notes that Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly correlated with tech stocks and the broader S&P 500.
Melville believes it’s too early to determine whether traders should retreat due to increased risk, especially given the current U.S. regulatory environment — which, he notes, is far more favorable to crypto than it was during the 2022 correction. As a result, he sees today’s market conditions as distinct from those of 2022.
Lee adds that retail investor sentiment and outflows are major drivers of emotional trading behavior. Gashier follows up by noting that crypto sometimes behaves more like a currency than an asset, making timing the market especially difficult. However, he advises watching for signs of a longer downward trend, such as Bitcoin’s correlation with equities, sustained institutional activity and shifts in regulatory policies.
The Alt Season Question: Is Capital Rotating Away from Bitcoin?
Historically, when Bitcoin declines, capital often flows into Ethereum (ETH) before reaching riskier altcoins. Melville emphasizes that the crypto market is cyclical: when money exits high-risk projects, it typically returns to Bitcoin. He shares a chart indicating that, based on past cycles, Bitcoin is overdue for a shift into a bear market. However, he notes that this cycle may deviate from previous patterns, due to significant market changes in recent years.
Lee highlights altcoin season as a key risk indicator, explaining that understanding its phases can help traders adjust their strategies for maximum gains. Currently, Ether and altcoins are showing limited movement. He attributes this to institutional investment propping up Bitcoin’s price, which is delaying the typical capital rotation into altcoins.
Melville adds that Ether has underperformed during the current cycle, which could stem from two factors: increased institutional focus on Bitcoin, and competition from high-performing Layer 1 networks such as Solana.
Gashier reinforces this view, pointing to Ethereum’s high transaction fees and the emergence of more efficient alternatives as key reasons for its lagging performance. He notes that the market has matured, and price movements are now more fundamentally driven than before. While history may not repeat itself exactly, Gashier reminds us that it often echoes.
How to Trade Smart in an Uncertain Market
Melville emphasizes the importance of recognizing the shift into an altcoin market. To do this, he advises closely monitoring the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, as these trends often signal the start of a broader market rotation. He also notes that narratives typically emerge before major market moves, but cautions against buying into them too early without supporting data.
Meanwhile, Lee highlights the value of smart risk management, recommending that traders scale into positions gradually, rather than investing all of their capital at once. He also suggests considering derivatives to effectively manage risk, based on individual experience and skill level. Additionally, he stresses the importance of portfolio balance, particularly in uncertain markets.
Drawing from personal experience, Lee warns against chasing hype during the start of an altcoin season. Instead, he advises conducting thorough research and making decisions based on both fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on high-quality projects. He reminds traders that, regardless of the project, long-term success comes from staying in the market, rather than attempting to time it perfectly.
Closing Thoughts
This Learn 101 livestream provides valuable insights into Tariffs vs. Bitcoin: What’s Next? Our experts agree that it’s still too early to determine whether we’re entering an altcoin season, or if Bitcoin is simply facing a temporary setback. In order to navigate the market effectively, stay sharp — and monitor key trends and indicators to make informed, strategic trading decisions.
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