What is the International Goal Difference Futures Contract?

The International Goal Difference Futures Contract is Bybit's first derivatives product type in which contract settlement is determined by a real-world event outcome, rather than an asset's spot or futures price. Contracts are priced around the net goal difference between the home team and away team at full time in international football matches. For each match, you can take a long or short position, use professional order tools and exit before settlement, subject to product rules.

This is not a fixed-odds product. Event Futures behave like delivery contracts: the price moves continuously, leverage applies and settlement follows a defined formula, rather than a house-set payout.

Key Takeaways:

• International Goal Difference Futures Contracts settle at [10 + net goals], where net goals equals home team goals minus away team goals at full time.

• The live price reflects the market's expected net-goal outcome, not the probability of a team winning.

• Contracts trade before and during matches, with reduce-only mode beginning 120 minutes after kickoff and auto-settlement at kickoff + 140 minutes.

What are Event Futures?

Event Futures are delivery contracts whose final settlement price is determined by a real-world event outcome, rather than a financial asset price. For International Goal Difference contracts specifically, that outcome is equal to the net goal difference between the home and away teams at full time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).

Because these are derivatives contracts, you’re not buying or selling any underlying asset. Instead, you’re trading price exposure to an event-linked settlement formula. The contract price moves before and during the match, based on what the market expects the final net-goal outcome to be.

Several features distinguish Event Futures from conventional sports exposure. You can go long or short, meaning you can take a position on either side of the expected outcome. Professional order tools — such as limit orders, take-profit and stop-loss settings — are also supported. The contract price updates continuously during the match, subject to product rules. Leverage is also available, which increases both potential gains and losses relative to the margin posted.

To find available contracts on Bybit’s homepage, go to Derivatives → Futures and search for WC_ to browse listed International Goal Difference Futures Contracts. Contracts follow the naming format WC_{Home}_{Away}_USDT-{Date}. 

For example, WC_NLD_JPN_USDT-15JUN26 refers to a Netherlands vs. Japan contract, settled in Tether (USDT), with the match date shown in the symbol.

The "home team" in any contract name is defined by the official football match listing or draw order, not necessarily the physical venue. Note that not every international match will have a listed contract. Bybit selects which matches to list, based on expected market interest and liquidity conditions.

How contract pricing works

The settlement price formula is the core mechanic you need to understand before entering any position.

Settlement price = 10 + net goals, where net goals equal home-team goals minus away-team goals at full time.

The base value of 10 exists because net goals can be negative when the away team wins. Starting from 10 keeps all contract prices positive across any realistic match outcome. A settlement price above 10 reflects a home-team net-goal advantage; a price below 10 reflects an away-team net-goal advantage.

The formula scales linearly with the margin of victory. A 3:0 home win settles at 13, and a 0:2 home loss settles at 8. Contract prices are bounded between 0.01 and 20, although the vast majority of match outcomes are expected to fall well within that range, given historical score distributions in top-level international football.

What this means in practice is that a contract trading at 11.50 before kickoff is pricing the home team to win by roughly 1.5 net goals — not indicating a 115% probability or any fixed outcome.

How to read the live price

As noted earlier, the live contract price reflects the market's current expectation for the net-goal outcome at full time. It is not a measure of win probability:

• A price above 10 means that the market expects the home team to outscore the away team.

• A price around 10 means the market is pricing a roughly balanced outcome or draw. 

• A price below 10 means the market expects the away team to outperform.

The single most important clarification here is that a live price of 10.9 means the market is pricing approximately +0.9 net goals for the home team. It does not mean the home team has a 90% chance of winning. The price is denominated in expected net goals, not probability.

The live price is produced by Bybit's Event Futures pricing mechanism, which includes trading activity, and may also include external expected price inputs from prediction or odds-based data sources. The Mark Price is calculated as the Index Price plus a short-term moving average of the basis. This calculation limits the divergence between the order book mid-price and the underlying index during volatile moments, such as immediately after a goal. Please refer to Index Price and Mark Price for general information on methodologies.

Because the price scale is continuous and decimal-based, small pre-match moves can carry meaningful information about shifting market sentiment.

How positions work during a match

A long position benefits when the contract price rises, which generally corresponds to the home team increasing its net-goal advantage. In turn, a short position benefits when the contract price falls, which corresponds to the away team closing the gap or taking the lead.

Contracts are typically listed before kickoff, so by the time the game starts, the price may already have moved based on pre-match expectations. Once the match begins, the live price can shift in response to various factors, such as injuries, the amount of time remaining and the number of goals, red cards and substitutions.

You can close your position before settlement, subject to available liquidity and order execution at that time. Closing early locks in whatever the contract price is at that moment, independent of the final score. Conversely, holding to settlement means that your final PnL is determined entirely by the full-time score and the formula [10 + net goals].

Liquidity depth can thin during high-impact events, such as a crucial goal or red card, which may widen spreads or affect order execution.

Key settlement rules to know

Settlement is based on full time only (90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time). Extra time and penalty shootouts are not counted, regardless of whether the match reaches those stages. For instance, if a match ends 1:1 after 90 minutes, but the away team wins on penalties, the contract still settles at 10 (net goals = 0).

Trading remains available during the match until reduce-only mode begins. Reduce-only mode kicks in 120 minutes after kickoff, at which point you can only close existing positions; no new entries are permitted. Auto-settlement occurs at [kickoff + 140 minutes], with the system automatically applying the settlement formula to any remaining open positions. No manual action is required at settlement.

Post-match rulings, such as later disqualifications or overturned results issued by FIFA after the match, do not affect settlement. Contracts settle strictly, and are based on the full-time score as recorded at the end of the match.

Maximum leverage available for these contracts is 5x, subject to position size. A tiered system applies to available leverage: as your position value increases, maximum leverage decreases, and margin requirements scale up. 

Example: Reading price movement during a match

Let’s consider WC_BRA_ARG_USDT-15JUL26, which is trading at a live price of 10.30 before kickoff. This price means that the market is pricing Brazil at roughly +0.30 net goals, a slight lean toward a home-team advantage rather than a strong directional signal.

If Brazil scores in the 23rd minute, the price may rise toward 11.00 or above, as the market is now pricing a larger expected net-goal margin. If Argentina equalizes shortly before halftime, the price may pull back toward 10, reflecting a reset to near-draw expectations.

At settlement, if the final score is 2:1 to Brazil, the contract will settle at 11 (10 + 1 net goal). This settlement price applies regardless of how high the live price reached during the match. 

Note that the example above is illustrative of how the contract’s mechanics work; it does not imply any specific outcome for any real match.

What to know before participating

Event outcomes are inherently unpredictable, as directly reflected in contract price volatility. Leverage amplifies both your gains and losses, relative to the margin posted, so a position that moves against you can lose more than it would without leverage.

Liquidity can thin during high-impact moments, such as goals or red cards, which increases the risk of slippage.

Settlement follows full time only (i.e., 90 minutes plus stoppage time). Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded. A match that results in a draw after regulation settles at 10, regardless of what follows. 

It should also be noted that live prices can shift quickly after major match events; the reduce-only window means that late-match position management requires planning ahead of the 120-minute cutoff.

Match cancellations or abnormal match outcomes are handled according to Bybit's product rules. In addition, product availability is subject to Bybit's Terms of Service and regional restrictions; not all users may have access to Event Futures.

In general, any form of derivatives trading involves significant risk. Please be sure to read the product rules and understand the settlement mechanics fully before participating.

The bottom line

International Goal Difference Futures Contracts are not bets with fixed payouts or house-set odds. They are continuously priced derivatives where your P&L depends on the gap between your entry price and the final settlement value. Understanding that the price reflects expected net goals, not win probability, is the key mental shift for anyone coming from traditional sports markets.

For a step-by-step walkthrough of placing your first trade, margin modes and reading your P&L after settlement, see How to Trade International Goal Difference Futures Contracts on Bybit.

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