TACO: Trump, Again, Chickens Out; BTC subdued by Senate's crypto bill delay
Riskier assets are now catching a lift after US President Donald Trump ditched his latest tariff threat against the so-called "Greenland 8" (eight European countries that rallied to Denmark's side as they pushed back against Trump's quest to purchase Greenland).
Bitcoin is yet again re-testing the psychologically-important $90,000 resistance, (we'd cited $90k as a price level to watch since Monday, Jan 19).
The broader CoinDesk 20 index is currently little changed at the time of writing.
Cryptos' relatively subdued rebound is perhaps due in part to the US Senate Banking Committee delaying a highly-anticipated crypto market bill, reportedly until late February or March.
NOTE: This crypto market bill aims to write new laws pertaining to crypto markets' structure, while drawing clearer jurisdiction lines and roles between the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
Bybit's SP500, which tracks the benchmark S&P 500, has erased much of this week's declines and is back in the green on a year-to-date basis, though has yet to close the gap down from the weekend.
Gold (XAUUSD+) eased away from its all-time high, though remains trading above the psychologically-important $4800 level at the time of writing.
NOTE: Silver (XAGUSD) is also hovering its own record high around the mid-$90 range.
As we had mentioned a couple of times this week:
Wed, Jan 21: "Geopolitically-charged volatility tends to be fleeting"
Mon, Jan 19: "In recent years, markets have shown a tendency to move past geopolitical/trade shockers relatively swiftly."
Also, the yields on long-term (30- and 40-year) Japanese Government Bonds have also fallen lower, easing some of the fears across global financial markets - a risk we had highlighted in our 2026 Crypto Outlook report published on January 5th.
Though we cannot fully rule out further bouts of geopolitically-induced market volatility ...
This week's episode has once again shown how steady hands can often stand market participants in good stead.
Greenland Crisis? These stock indices didn't care much
Despite the market angst, these stock indices offered within the Bybit universe still went on to post their own record highs today (Thursday, Jan 22nd):
US2000 - US Small Cap 200 - Cash (+8.7% so far in 2026)
TWINDEX - Taiwan RIC Index Cash CFD (+8.3% so far in 2026)
BVSPX - Bovespa Cash CFD BRL (+6.6% so far in 2026)
USDJPY+ braces for eventful Friday
This major G10 forex pair was highlighted as one of "3 Assets to Watch" this week.
On Friday, January 23rd, markets are bracing for these key events in Japan, along with economists' forecasts:
December national consumer price index (CPI) a.k.a. inflation
2.2% growth year-on-year (Dec 2025 vs. Dec 2024) - lower than November's 2.9%
2.8% growth year-on-year for Core CPI (excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices) - lower than November's 3%
Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision: economists predict no change to the BoJ Target Rate at 0.75%
Markets predict a greater-than-even (65%) chance that the BoJ will hike at its April meeting
Markets fully expect 2 rate hikes by the BoJ by end-2026.
Also note, on the US Dollar side of the USDJPY pair, the US is set to release its November PCE data - the Fed's preferred way of measuring inflation - later on Friday, Jan 23rd.
Potential USDJPY+ scenarios:
Higher-than-expected Japan inflation, along with stronger signs that the BoJ is ready to hike rates, may drag USDJPY+ lower (stronger Yen vs. USD) towards the 155.90 downside target cited in our Monday article. Weaker-than-expected US PCE data should reinforce a bearish bias (move downwards) for this major FX pair.
Lower-than-expected Japan inflation, along with weak signs that the BoJ is ready to hike rates, may send USDJPY+ higher (weaker Yen vs. USD) to a new 18-month high, even as USDJPY is currently rising to already test the psychological 159.00 big, round number for resistance. Higher-than-expected US PCE data should reinforce a bullish bias (move upwards) for this major FX pair.
Don't Miss Out!
Here's a quick recap of recently highlighted market setups that have already been fulfilled:
Netflix stock price tumbled 7% after earnings - a scenario highlighted on Monday, Jan 19.
AUDUSD+ soars to a new 15-month high - a scenario highlighted on Monday, Jan 12.
