Recap: Markets got early start to holiday season, set for quiet year-end period
There was a slew of major macro events slated for this week, but markets only mustered a limited response.
Here's a quick recap:
- Tue, Dec 16: The US unemployment rate hit 4.6%, its highest since 2021. The headline nonfarm payrolls (NFP) figures showed a mixed picture.
- Wed, Dec 17: UK inflation came in lower than expected, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) even printing a 0.2% contraction month-on-month (Nov 2025 vs. Oct 2025).
- Thur, Dec 18: As widely expected, the Bank of England (BoE) cut rates while the European Central Bank (ECB) left its own rates unchanged. However, the BoE sent out a "hawkish" signal suggesting that future UK rate cuts may be more gradual, while the ECB essentially signaled that its recent rate-cutting cycle is over.
Thur, Dec 18: The US CPI data (a.k.a. headline inflation) did come in lower than expected, as the core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) posted its slowest growth since 2021. Although the likes of Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 got an initial boost ...Β
The apparent cooling in US inflation did little to alter market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January, with such odds now around 27%.
- Fri, Dec 19: Japan's national CPI (inflation) met expectations, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest since 1995 - a broadly expected outcome. Although the BoJ signalled more rate HIKES incoming, the Yen weakened against all of its G10 peers (inc USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, etc.) amid doubts about the timing of the next BoJ rate hike.
ICYMI: Risk assets got initial boost after US CPI release - "Daily Market Update" livestream with Bybit Learn Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan.
No wild price swings this week, yet
Despite all those tier-1 events listed above, major assets merely offered a muted reaction up until the time of writing:
- Bitcoin remains below the $90k level, still on course for its 4th annual decline in its history
- Bybit's SP500, which tracks the S&P 500 benchmark stock index, remains some 2% below its latest all-time intraday high (posted last Thursday, Dec 11), despite the post-US inflation boost
- Gold (Bybit: XAUUSD+) has been mostly range-bound, hovering about 1-2% shy of its all-time intraday high of $4381.44 (posted on Oct 20) - unable (yet) to post a new record high this week as we had mulled at the onset of the week.
- EURGBP+ (Euro vs. British Pound) remains in a sideways range for most of this week below the psychological 0.880 line, trapped between cross-currents out of the UK/BoE and the Eurozone/ECB.
- Still, there were new record highs this week for the likes of Silver (XAGUSD) and Tesla's stock prices.
Trade SP500, XAUUSD+, EURGBP+, XAGUSD, Tesla and more on Bybit TradFi here.
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Given the dearth of scheduled market-moving catalysts for the remainder of 2025, global financial markets are set to end the year on a whimper, barring a major surprise (Santa Rally perhaps?).
This Week's (Dec 15-19) New Listings on Bybit
ICYMI, there were multiple new assets launched within the Bybit universe: