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Calmer Week for Markets (Nov 24-28)?

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Daily Bits
24 de nov de 2025

The world's oldest and biggest cryptocurrency is coming off the back of its 6th weekly loss from the past seven.

Barring a dramatic turnaround, Bitcoin is also just days away from sealing its biggest monthly drop since June 2022!

Despite rebounding to the $88k mark on Monday, markets remain wary, more inclined to fade than chase any rebound. After all, BTC has posted multiple "dead cat bounces" amid its stunning drop since early October.

However, the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index has come off last week's spike to 65, which matched levels last seen during the:

  • October 10th liquidation event
  • March/April 2025 trade tariff angst

At the time of writing, the BVIV index has eased lower below the 58 mark, suggesting that markets perceive relatively lesser volatility between now through Christmas eve.

BVIV_2025-11-24_12-05-38.png

Can restored bets for Dec Fed rate cut calm markets?

With Bybit's SP500 and NAS100 indices also edging higher, perhaps risk assets are taking comfort from restored bets of a December Fed rate cut.

Fed funds futures now point to a 66% chance of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut at the Dec 9-10th FOMC meeting, up from the mere 35% odds accorded on Thursday, Nov. 20th.

It remains to be seen how risk assets fare in a week that's relatively light on the tier-1 economic calendar, and with holidays in major economies:

  • Nov. 24: Japan markets closed for Labor Thanksgiving Day
  • Nov. 27: US markets closed for Thanksgiving Day

On the flip side, seasoned market watchers are aware that holiday-thinned liquidity can result in major volatility spikes.

3 Assets to Watch: Nov 24-28

Watch these assets and major scheduled events that may present potential market opportunities this week:

1) Bitcoin to revisit April lows?

  • Downside scenario: A daily close below $84k could mark a return to $78,500 and $74,500, especially if selling pressures return with vengeance.
  • Upside scenario: A daily close above $89k may eventually see a return to $95k, though such gains would require a hefty dose of risk-taking appetite.
24_Nov_BTC_to_revisit_April_lows.png

2. Alibaba

  • Nov 25: Earnings due before US markets open Tuesday
  • Markets expect this stock to move 6.25% up/down after the earnings release

NOTE: Trade Alibaba live during earnings release on Bybit TradFi.

3. GBPUSD to sink to April lows?

  • Nov 26: UK autumn budget announcement
  • Bloomberg's FX model predicts GBPUSd is most likely to trade between 1.2943 - 1.3257 within 1-week.

GET A HEAD START: Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, shared his early preview of this week's 3 assets to watch this past Friday, Nov. 21 on YouTube and X.