Bitcoin hasn't done this since October!
Talk about raring to go in the new year: Bitcoin has climbed as much as 8% so far in 2026, now trading around its highest levels since December 10th.
Traders would also have noticed that BTC is now trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - a widely followed technical indicator - for the first time since late-October 2025.
Note how the 50-day SMA has previously acted as a "resistance zone" - preventing BTC prices from marching much higher above it.
Hence, the current price action is significant, given how much BTC has relatively punched above its 50-day SMA.
Bitcoin in 2026: It's Different This Time?
In yesterday's livestream (Monday, Jan 5), as we launched the Bybit X Block Scholes 2026 Crypto Outlook report, we highlighted some key drivers that could fundamentally alter the 4-year cycle narrative surrounding Bitcoin.
Those factors include:
• Fed rate cuts: markets now predict a 1-in-3 chance that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates 3 times in 2026
• New Sources of Demand: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)
Assessing evidence that the macro environment appears supportive for Bitcoin this year:
"We assign a higher chance of a new all-time high around $150,000 in 2026 ..."
FUN FACT: Bitcoin rose 3.1% on Monday, Jan 5 - the day of our livestream and launch of our 2026 Crypto Outlook report - the biggest one-day gain in over a month (since Dec 2nd, 2025)
Cryptos kick off 2026 in style
Beyond Bitcoin, altcoins are also enjoying a fine start to the new year so far: (% figures below represent year-to-date performance)
• Bitcoin Cash: +7.4% - hit highest since April 2024!
• Ethereum: +8.2%
• Solana: +11%
• Avalanche: +16.7%
• Hedera Hashgraph: +21.4%
• Stellar: +23.3%
• Cardano: +25.2%
• Dogecoin: +27.8%
• Ripple: +28.1%
• Shiba Inu: +33.8%
Of course, it remains to be seen whether an "altseason" does crystalise meaningfully, though we still adhere to the notion that this year will be the year of "K-rypto", with altcoins likely seeing a K-shaped recovery in 2026.
Still, the current gains for Bitcoin and altcoins so far in this still-nascent new year are showing greenshoots of optimism, despite the rising global geopolitical risks in the world that have also sent the likes of gold upwards.