Foercasts: Check out post-data % reactions for Bitcoin, gold, oil, SP500, EURUSD+ and more.

Markets are still digesting the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, which Tehran claims has already been violated.

At the time of writing, major assets are paring some of 

Even as markets are tensely watching the latest geopolitical developments out of the Middle East, investors and traders are set to also contend with 

1) Thursday, April 9th @ 12:30 PM UTC: US February PCE 

(PCE = personal consumption expenditure - 

Fed's preferred way of measuring inflation)

If so, 0.4% will be faster growth than January's 0.3% m/m number

If so, 2.8% would match January's y/y number

If so, 0.4% would match January's core PCE m/m number

If so, 3% would be slightly slower growth than January's 3.1% core PCE y/y number

2) Friday, April 10th @ 12:30 PM UTC: US March CPI

(CPI = consumer price index - measures headline inflation)

If so, 0.9% would be FAR HIGHER than February's 0.3% m/m number

If so, 3.4% would be FAR HIGHER than February's 2.4% y/y number

If so, 0.3% core CPI will be slightly faster than February's 0.2% m/m number

If so, 2.7% will be slightly faster inflation growth than February's 2.5% core CPI y/y number

Arguably Friday's CPI carries more weight, given that it captures headline inflation data during the first month of the US-Iran war.

Currently, markets expect ZERO Fed rate cuts in 2026 - a far cry from the two rate cuts (50 basis points total) forecasted prior to the war. 

Markets estimate just a 1-in-3 chance that the Fed can only trigger its next rate cut in Q1 2027, likelier (50-50 chance) only that the rate cut may arrive in mid-2027.

, the incoming PCE data  is expected to be the larger volatility-trigger relative to the CPI.

cryptos, major FX pairs, and US stock indices

, the CPI is expected to be the larger volatility-trigger relative to the PCE.

Still, market reactions are bound to be subservient to any major headlines about the Iran war.

NOTE: US-Iran negotiations are set to be held in Pakistan on Saturday, April 11th.

Beginner

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Inflation Obsession: Trader's guide to incoming US PCE and CPI data

Our selection of "3 assets to watch" this week = vindicated.

, agreed for the next 2 weeks, is allowing markets to breathe a massive sigh of relief.

The dramatic 11th-hour ceasefire deal was announced about 

 President Trump's self-imposed (and delayed) deadline of 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, April 7th.

Major assets are reversing some of the big moves seen since the Iran war broke out on February 28th.

set for biggest one-day drop in nearly 6 years

which has been in the driver's seat for other major assets amid the Middle East conflict (i.e. stocks, bonds, etc. have tumbled on oil's surge on rising inflation fears).

Following news of the ceasefire, Bybit's 

 (which tracks the US benchmark for oil prices - WTI crude) careened towards the $90/bbl psychological level before paring some of its gains.

Still, at these sub-$100 prices at the time of writing ...

is now down by more than 14%, set for its biggest one-day drop since April 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

, have also delivered some spectacular results:

Following news of the US-Iran ceasefire, the Bybit's 

 - which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index - has reclaimed the 

for the first time since March 11th - exactly 4 Wednesdays ago.

NOTE: The S&P 500 index is arguably the most popular way to measure the overall performance of the US stock market.

around that psychological 6,800 round number. The 100-day SMA currently lies slightly northwards to perhaps exert additional resistance.

Perhaps most pertinently, it answers the question we posed in our 

2) New Zealand Dollar = G10's biggest gainer vs. the US dollar today!

 has skyrocketed past our upside target of 

At the time of writing, this FX pair also appears headed to re-test its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) - a widely followed technical indicator - for immediate resistance.

Perhaps most importantly, our decision to include 

 by the fact that, at least at the time of writing ...

The New Zealand Dollar is G10's biggest-gainer against the US dollar today!

) = biggest gainer today among top-10 digital assets

 by the decision to include Cardano among our "3 Assets to Watch" for this week.

Over the past 24 hours, of the 10 biggest digital assets by market cap (excluding stablecoins) ...

Cardano (ADA) is posting the biggest climb following the US-Iran ceasefire news!

7) WhiteBIT Coin: +3.9% (market cap: US$ 11.4 billion)

9) Figure Heloc: +1.3% (market cap: US$ 17.08 billion)

 is testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - 

That may require more risk-taking activities across global financial markets.

Of course, in this ever-fluid geopolitical landscape, the existing ceasefire plan is not guaranteed to last.

Direct negotiations still need to be held between the US and Iran to reach a longer (and permanent?) deal that may finally bring an end to this Middle East conflict.

, there are other major macro events left this week:

Overall, even though some key price targets have already been hit for the week, the above-listed events may yet inject further volatility into our 3 highlighted assets, and surely beyond, for the rest of the week.

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US-Iran Ceasefire Triggers Spectacular Moves

Iran war headlines + US inflation data = your next trading opportunity?

that the US and Iran, along with regional mediators, are discussing a 

This latest news has prompted markets to start off the week on a hopeful note.

brandished by US President Donald Trump, even as he continued threatening to attack Iran's power plants and bridges starting tomorrow (Tuesday, April 7).

Overall, markets will certainly remain sensitive to the 

, while keeping a watchful eye on the incoming US inflation data.

NOTE: Major European markets are closed today (Monday, April 6) for Easter Monday.

With all that in mind, here are 3 assets to watch this week:

Since the Middle East conflict erupted end-February, the SP500 has been stuck in a 

posting a series of lower highs and lower lows.

At the time of writing, the SP500 is attempting to break out of this downtrend, testing resistance from the upper downward-sloping trendline that has repelled gains over the past 6 weeks.

Another sudden capitulation for risk assets could see the SP500 fall back into a "technical correction", should it reach the 6300 level.

NOTE: An asset has fallen into a "technical correction" when it drops 10% or more from a recent high.

Since the Iran War erupted on February 28th, the New Zealand dollar has been 

NZDUSD+ has also been stuck in a downtrend (lower highs and lower lows) for the past 2 months.

In addition to the latest Iran war developments, as well as the key events already listed above for the SP500 ...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to leave its 

Among the 10 biggest tokens (excuding stablecoins) by market cap ...

Cardano has been the biggest gainer so far in April 2026 (+5.6%).

Though looking at the chart, ADA has been mostly confined to a sideways trend for the past 2 months.

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3 Assets to Watch: April 6-10

Today (Friday, April 3): US markets closed, but US jobs report incoming.

With US markets closed today, we take this opportunity to revisit some trade setups that were fulfilled recently.

Here now are some major trade setups you may have missed:

TRON prices dipped slightly below the 0.3130 level before rebounding back above that downside price target level. 

 just about as good as it got for traders who went "short" on TRON 

(expect prices to move lower) since our report was first published on Monday, March 30th.

 respected 100-day SMA - a key level cited on 

against the US dollar so far this month (April 2026).

This makes JPY the 2nd worst-performing G10 currency versus USD month-to-date (NZD is the worst G10 performer, down 0.6% against the US dollar so far in April).

The JPY weakness helped boost the Nikkei225 above its 100-day SMA, as expected!

Also notably, on Thursday, April 2nd, the Nikkei225 then erased gains from the day prior to test support at its 100-day SMA

And at the time of writing today (Friday morning, April 3rd, pre-NFP), this stock index is STILL testing this widely followed technical indicator for critical support.

This justifies our analysis in choosing the 

100-day SMA as a critical technical indicator to watch

) respected "upward bias", posts biggest 1-day gain in 4 weeks

Prices of WTI Crude Oil - the US benchmark for oil prices - soared 

to help 3rd and final "asset to watch" fulfill trade setup?

Some markets are closed today (Friday, April 3) for the Good Friday market holiday, meaning no trading for popular TradFi products such as 

that aim to mirror the TradFi assets listed above are still 

Hence, the DeFi equivalents to the above listed TradFi instruments (oil benchmarks and precious metals) are primed to react to the incoming 

US nonfarm payrolls report due 12:30PM UTC today

 are still printing prices on this Good Friday.

 already fulfilling their respective trade scenarios ...

It remains to be seen whether the last-one-standing

 can fulfill either its Upside or Downside trade scenarios when the US jobs report arrives.

 to get all you need to know ahead of this pivotal monthly US jobs/NFP report.

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Did you miss these trade setups?

Scroll to the end: forecasted % reactions for BTC, gold, oil, EURUSD, and more.

First, a quick recap to get you up to speed.

ICYMI: US President Donald Trump's speech overnight - delivered at 9:00 AM EST on Wednesday, April 1 - 

 for a swift end to the ongoing Middle East conflict:

 - prior to President Trump's speech with markets eager for a de-escalation in the Iran war ...

The pivotal US jobs data is due to be released tomorrow (Friday, April 3) @ 12:30PM UTC.

NOTE: The monthly US jobs report is also called the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, and is typically released on the first Friday of every month.

The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = 

(people spending money on goods and services).

Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.

However, the resilience of the US jobs market, and US economic growth in tandem, is being doubted in light of the risks stemming from the Iran war.

2) Fed's mandate for "maximum employment"

The Federal Reserve, a.k.a. the Fed, is the 

 and has a dual mandate (economic goals to achieve):

However, the Fed's job could become trickier moving forward because of the Iran war.

In short, it remains to be seen how resilient/hurt the US jobs market has been, and whether the Fed has to rush in and quickly cut US interest rates while tolerating higher US inflation.

Currently, markets expect Fed rates to remain stuck i.e. unchanged through the end of 2026.

Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

If so, that would be a turnaround from the 92,000 jobs LOST from the month prior: January 2026.

If so, 4.4% would match January's jobless rate

How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?

 the CPI release @ 12:30 PM UTC Fri, April 3rd:

Some markets will be closed Friday, April 3.

Instead, conventional TradFi precious metals and oil instruments have been replaced with their respective 

 available for 24/7 trading, as listed in the bullet points above.

Preview: US jobs report due Friday, April 3. Check out these market forecasts.

No April Fool's joke: Brent made history, while Gold did something not seen since 2008!

Today (Wed, April 1st), markets are keenly waiting for 

The US President may reveal how much longer the US military could remain actively involved in the Iran war.

Recently, President Trump suggested that the US could end its war with Iran 

As the world awaits what could be the next major development in this ongoing Middle East conflict, it's timely to assess how major asset classes have fared since this war began a month ago.

NOTE: The % figures below measure the respective performances of these assets for all of March 2026:

Although markets are easing Brent prices lower at the time of writing, the reality is that the Strait of Hormuz remains practically shut today.

The upward bias for oil prices should remain intact as long as Iran continues to exert a chockhold on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that deprives the world of its much-needed oil supplies.

In March 2026, gold saw its biggest monthly drop since October 2008 - with such declines not seen since the global financial crisis.

Despite being a safe haven asset, gold prices crumbled in the face of the stronger US dollar, as markets erased expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Also, because gold is a highly liquid asset (can be easily sold for cash), investors likely sold off the precious metal to meet margin calls elsewhere, amid heightened volatility across global financial markets. 

On March 23rd, gold even briefly dipped into a 

 - falling by more than 20% (using intraday prices) from its all-time high.

However, at the time of writing prior to President Trump's highly-anticipated speech, gold is rebounding - on course for a 4th straight day of gains - amid hopes that the Middle East conflict may soon de-escalate.

The US dollar a.k.a. the "greenback" a.k.a. the "buck" was clearly the preferred "safe haven" since the Iran war broke out.

In March 2026, the US dollar strengthened against all of its G10 and Asian peers.

NOTE: The US dollar's performance is widely measured by the benchmark dollar index, 

 Specifically, the DXY index measures USD vs a basket of major currencies:

was the best-performing currency in the world (tracked by Bloomberg) against the US dollar, followed by the 

Such gains were notable in light of the broad US dollar strength amid the Middle East conflict.

Despite this period of heightened market fears and uncertainties, Bitcoin prices climbed amidst the Iran war, far outperforming other risk assets such as equities/stocks.

While it's still far too early to declare Bitcoin as a safe haven, 

such price resilience is indeed remarkable, 

with this Middle East conflict offering cryptos its latest chance to showcase its merits as an alternative safe haven asset.

Notably, Bitcoin's 2.2% climb last month (Feb 28-Mar 31, closing prices) was its first monthly advance since September 2025, ending a 5-month losing streak!

Iran War - a month on: How did Oil, Gold, USD, BTC etc. perform in March 2026?

Brent oil still set for record monthly gain, while stocks worldwide wipe out US$ 14 trillion!

Markets are reacting to a Wall Street Journal report that US President Donald Trump may consider bringing the curtains down on the US military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz isn't re-opened.

Risk-taking activities across asset classes were also aided by overnight comments from Fed Chair Jerome POwell, who sought to calm market concerns over near-term inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices.

 little changed after mixed Japanese economic data

Japan's benchmark stock index is little changed after the Japanese economy reported earlier today:

This mixed outlook for the Japanese economy, in light of ongoing risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, is leaving the Japanese Yen and the benchmark Nikkei225 stock index little changed.

At the time of writing, the Nikkei225 has climbed 2.3% so far in 2026, notably lower than the 19% year-to-date gain it held prior to the start of the Iran war.

Stock markets worldwide have erased about US$ 14 trillion in collective value since the start of the Middle East conflict.

DID YOU KNOW: Traders can also potentially profit from falling prices by "shorting" an asset? 

Tap "sell' first, "buy" later to close the "short" position.

Markets swayed by yet another Trump flip-flop on Iran

Highly-anticipated US jobs report and other macro events await, even as Middle East conflict still rages on.

Markets are still wary of a further escalation in the ongoing Middle East conflict, though risk assets are edging higher on this Monday, March 30th:

For this week, these 3 major assets could see big moves amid major events that could trigger further volatility, beyond the ongoing Iran war:

Before the Iran war began, the Nikkei225 had a year-to-date gain of over 19%.

At the time of writing, the Nikkei225's gains so far in 2026 have been whittled down to just 3%.

Stock index traders, besides the ongoing Middle East conflict, keep an eye on these major events this week: 

NOTE: Nikkei 225 tends to go in the opposite direction (inverse relationship) as the Japanese Yen. 

The bloc's headline inflation, measured from a year ago (year-on-year) is forecasted to spike to 2.6% from 1.9% in February.

Here's what economists are expecting out of the jobs market in the world's biggest economy: 

added in February (an improvement from the 92k jobs lost in January); US jobless rate remained stable at 

Bloomberg FX model's forecasted (75% chance) EURUSD trading range this week: 

NOTE: Markets fully expect the ECB to hike its rates THREE times (75-basis points total) by end-2026.

At the time of writing, TRON is trading at a 5-month high!

3 Assets to Watch: March 30 - April 3

Geopolitical tensions + US-China trade tensions = risk off markets.

Markets are paring back hopes for a de-escalation in the ongoing Middle East conflict, while China's just-launched investigations into US trade practices add to the downcast sentiment across major financial assets:

Today (Friday, March 27), Bitcoin is also set to witness its largest options expiry so far in 2026, worth some US$ 14 billion.

Traders will be mulling wether this removal of such a large chunk of open interest will 

expose Bitcoin prices to greater volatility,

 driven by news headlines surrounding the Iran war.

As the war reaches its 1-month mark, it’s perhaps timely to revisit historical precedence that may offer some near-term optimism for Bitcoin bulls (those hoping prices will move higher).

Iran War: Past precedence points to future gains?

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Market Pulse

Inflation Obsession: Trader's guide to incoming US PCE and CPI data

Market Pulse

US-Iran Ceasefire Triggers Spectacular Moves

Market Pulse

3 Assets to Watch: April 6-10

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Did you miss these trade setups?

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Preview: US jobs report due Friday, April 3. Check out these market forecasts.

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Iran War - a month on: How did Oil, Gold, USD, BTC etc. perform in March 2026?

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Markets swayed by yet another Trump flip-flop on Iran

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3 Assets to Watch: March 30 - April 3

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How has Bitcoin fared over past US-Iran conflicts?

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Brent oil set for biggest monthly gain since 1990!

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'Strait' Talk: Markets begin to hope for Middle East conflict de-escalation

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3 Assets to Watch: March 23 - 27