Find out the one-week forecasted trading ranges for XAUUSD and XAGUSD, according to Bloomberg models.

Precious metals started off 2026 with a bang, but are now on course for 2 straight days of losses.

If gold & silver end today (Thursday, Jan 8) with another daily drop, this would mark the first time they've each seen back-to-back daily declines in:

However, for proper context, these precious metals are still retaining year-to-date gains respectively:

 after 2026's start seemed to be a continuation of 

Recall: for 2025, Gold and Silver respectively posted their biggest annual advance since 1979!

However, there's another major event risk slated for today (Thursday, 8 January 2026).

Gold and Silver could see heightened volatility as the 2 biggest commodity indexes are due for an annual rebalancing!

According to Citigroup, today's rebalancing could result in 

US$ 6.8 billion worth of silver contracts being sold.

Funds that passively track these huge commodity indexes are set to be "forced" to sell these precious metals contracts in order to stay in line with today's changes to BCOM and the S&P GCSI indexes.

DECODE: An index is a way to measure something. A commodity index measures the performance of a group of commodities; stock indexes measure the performance of a group of stocks; the CPI (consumer price index) measures inflation.

According to Bloomberg's forecast model, over the next one-week period (till Jan 15th):

(70.3% chance of XAUUSD trading between $4301.92 - $4575.68 till Jan 15th)

(74.2% chance of XAGUSD trading between $69 - $83.44 till Jan 15th)

To be clear, the fundamentals for precious metals appear supportive for 2026, including prospects of more Fed rate cuts and heightened geopolitical fears stoking safe haven demand.

Once Gold & Silver prices can move past the post-rebalancing gyrations ...

Fundamental tailwinds should eventually send precious metals to new record highs in 2026.

Beginner

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Gold & Silver set for turbulent Thursday?

Here's how BTC, gold, oil, and US stock indexes have reacted - even before the dust settles on key geopolitical and crypto events.

Today, MSCI announced it will retain Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies like Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) within its global stock indices, for now.

However, the index provider also said it intends to embark on a "broader consultation" on how companies like Strategy, which hold non-operating assets such as cryptos, should be treated.

Overall, markets have so far reacted with little fanfare so far.

The MSCI decision was highlighted as a key event to watch during our 

Why this MSCI decision on Strategy matters?

If MSCI had decided to remove Strategy from the former's indexes, an estimated 

could have exited the latter, according to JPMorgan.

Furthermore, if Strategy were to subsequently struggle to meet its financial obligations, this poster-child for DATs may have to 

Forced-selling of Bitcions by Strategy and its fellow DATs may have heaped more downward pressures on BTC prices.

Such a risk has been dampened, for the time being, at least.

Post-Maduro Capture: S&P 500 hits new record high; Oil and Gold fall

As we entered the first full week of 2026, the world was stunned by the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Although the weekend shocker is set to have longer-term geopolitical ramifications, major tradfi assets have been relatively unperturbed by the news since:

 (as listed in our Week Ahead Preview published last Friday, Jan 2nd):

, if OPEC+ were to shock the world by resuming its production hikes (they chose not to rock the boat).

Instead, very few would have foreseen (and certainly not Maduro himself) the US-Venezuela political drama that pushed Brent to as high as $62.662 on Tuesday, Jan 6th.

However, at the time of writing on Wednesday, Jan 7th, 

Brent oil has tumbled back down towards the $60/bbl psychological level.

This price action follows US President Trump's announcement  just hours ago that Venezuela would relinquish some 30-50 million barrels of oil to the US, and will be sold at market price (worth about US$ 2.8 billion - not a huge amount).

That 3% gap from its record high (at the time the article was published on Fri, Jan 2) was 

 after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang buffering AI optimism when he said 

(though Bitcoin didn't need to wait for Friday's US jobs report to clamber above that psychological price level)

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Markets move past Maduro, MSCI & (Micro)Strategy drama

Cryptos are enjoying a roaring start to 2026! 

Talk about raring to go in the new year: 

 has climbed as much as 8% so far in 2026, now trading around its highest levels since December 10th.

Traders would also have noticed that BTC is now trading above its 

 - a widely followed technical indicator - for the first time since late-October 2025.

Note how the 50-day SMA has previously acted as a "resistance zone" - preventing BTC prices from marching much higher above it.

Hence, the current price action is significant, given how much BTC has relatively punched above its 50-day SMA. 

Bitcoin in 2026: It's Different This Time? 

, we highlighted some key drivers that could fundamentally alter the 4-year cycle narrative surrounding Bitcoin. 

: markets now predict a 1-in-3 chance that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates 3 times in 2026

 Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) 

Assessing evidence that the macro environment appears supportive for 

"We assign a higher chance of a new all-time high around $150,000 in 2026 ..." 

FUN FACT: Bitcoin rose 3.1% on Monday, Jan 5 - the day of our livestream and launch of our 2026 Crypto Outlook report - the biggest one-day gain in over a month (since Dec 2nd, 2025) 

Beyond Bitcoin, altcoins are also enjoying a fine start to the new year so far: 

(% figures below represent year-to-date performance) 

: +7.4% - hit highest since April 2024! 

Of course, it remains to be seen whether an "altseason" does crystalise meaningfully, though we still adhere to the notion that this year will be the year of "K-rypto", with altcoins likely seeing a K-shaped recovery in 2026. 

Still, the current gains for Bitcoin and altcoins so far in this still-nascent new year are showing greenshoots of optimism, despite the rising global geopolitical risks in the world that have also sent the likes of 

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Bitcoin hasn't done this since October!

Traders, this is no time to rest! The new year is set to kick off on an active note. Don't miss out on these potential opportunities.

) for some tradfi and crypto assets, and massive annual declines for others.

Even as the dust settles on the year gone by, markets are already kicking off 2026 on an active note!

Here are 3 key assets to watch in the week ahead (Jan 5 - 9, 2026):

This alliance of major oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, had already committed since November 2025 to pausing its output hikes through Q1 2026.

 (which it has done before) with a surprise plan to raise its production levels sooner than expected, that could send global oil prices tumbling with 

when markets resume trading on Monday, Jan 5th.

The Nasdaq 100 index tracks 100 of the biggest non-financial companies on the US stock market.

Nvidia alone, worth over US$4.5 trillion, accounts for almost 10% of the entire Nasdaq 100 index.

On Monday, Jan 5th, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is set to "showcase the latest NVIDIA solutions driving innovation and productivity across industries".

Nasdaq 100 index back closer towards its record high

As always, the monthly US jobs report - now back to its original release schedule of the first Friday of every month - is a closely-watched affair.

On Friday, Jan 9th, here's what economists predict for the December US nonfarm payrolls report (NFP):

If so, that would be lower than the 64,000 new jobs added back in November.

If so, that would be lower than the 4.6% US jobless rate registered in Nov.

A weaker-than-expected US jobs report (headline NFP number much lower than 55k and/or jobless rate at 4.6% or higher) may entice the Fed (Federal Reserve = US central bank) to cut interest rates.

And we know that risk assets (e.g. stocks and cryptos) generally love the thought of US interest rates going down.

Hence, a weakening Dec US NFP report may help lift BTC back above $90k - at least for a while.

On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that deters Fed rate cuts may weigh down 

Start your year on the right note as Bybit Learn and Block Scholes deliver crypto insights and expected trends for this new year.

Tune in for key analysis and a share of 20,000 USDT in rewards for new Bybit account sign ups.

3 Assets to Watch: Jan 5-9, 2026

Here's how much major assets rose/fall last year, including some mind-blowing triple digit gains!

2025 was meant to be a banner year for cryptos.

Bulls (those hoping prices will go up) were armed with a crypto-friendly Trump administration, along with tailwinds for risk assets stemming from the Fed's 3 rate cuts last year.

All was going swimmingly well for the first 3 quarters of the year, with cryptos even braving the global tariffs angst leading up to President Trump's early-April announcement.

Crypto bulls enjoyed plenty of momentum for most of 2025, culminating in Bitcoin's new record high of $126,195.50 on October 6th, 2025.

Then, the historic 10/10 (Oct 10th) liquidation event happened.

The ensuing violent selloff sent BTC to its 

, while altcoins broadly spiraled lower (so much for "Uptober").

To recap, here's how major cryptos wrapped up their annual performance for 2025:

To be fair, even amidst the broader crypto slump towards year-end, there were notable outperformers that ended 2025 with supersized gains:

Looking over into the TradFi space, 2025 was indeed a year to savour for many asset classes:

NOTE: All % figures listed above represent annual % gain/drop for 2025

Clearly 2025 saw major "W"s, almost shockingly so in some cases, for major TradFi assets and some cryptos. 

However, crypto's banner year petered out in Q4.

Start your year on the right note as Bybit Learn and Block Scholes deliver crypto insights and expected market trends for this new year:

New Bybit signups stand to get a share of 20,000 USDT in rewards, and more!

This special livestream will also be shown concurrently on Bybit Learn's:

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2025 Recap: Cryptos vs. TradFi

Find out the Bloomberg model's forecasts, along with 3 key factors driving bullion higher.

) has posted yet another record high today (Wed, Dec 24), briefly breaching the psychologically-important $4500 level on this Christmas eve.

This precious metal is clearly enjoying a year to savor, having soared 71% (at the time of writing) so far this year.

2025 is set to mark gold's biggest annual climb since 1979 (gold surged 126.5% that year, some four and a half decades ago)!

The Trump administration has got Venezuela in its sights, with the former having blockaded the latter's oil tankers amid claims of drug trafficking.

 meaning investors buy gold to help protect their wealth during times of great fear and uncertainty.

Hence, rising geopolitical tensions have fuelled this latest surge in safe haven gold.

NOTE: The blockade of oil tankers has also sent Brent Crude Oil (Bybit: 

) surging by more than 6% since Dec 16th (market fears of lessened supply sent buyers scrambling to buy oil, driving its prices higher).

Gold prices tend to go up at the thought of US interest rates going down.

With markets still expecting the Federal Reserve - the world's most influential central bank - to cut US interest rates twice more in 2026, this is lowering the opportunity cost/boosting the appeal of holding on to zero-yielding bullion.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has net bought gold for a 13th straight month in November 2025.

Central banks around the world have added 28% more tons of gold in Q3 than in Q2 2025, according to the World Gold Council.

Meanwhile, the world's biggest bullion-backed exchange traded fund (ETF) - the SPDR Gold Shares - now has over US$ 152.2 billion in assets, with its bullion holdings rising over 20% so far in 2025.

) has broken above $70 for the first time in its history, and is outperforming its more illustrious precious metals cousin, Gold.

So far this year, Silver has climbed by 148%!

That's double gold's year-to-date performance, with both set for their biggest annual gains respectively since 1979!

Similar to the reasons for gold's surge, silver has risen amid soaring demand from ETF investors in light of expectations for more Fed rate cuts.

Furthermore, silver investors are concerned of lacking supply, especially following the historic "supply squeeze" in London back in October.

NOTE: Silver has more use in the industrial world than gold; e.g. silver is used in circuit boards, EVs, batteries, medical devices, and solar panels.

Silver's lower price per troy ounce compared to Gold ($70 vs. near-$4500) also makes it more attractive among retail investors.

According to Bloomberg's model, we could see Spot Gold cross above the $5000 line by 

From a technical perspective, gold's surge has brought the post price well into

"Overbought" simply means investors drove up the price too much, too fast.

, the textbook threshold for "overbought" conditions is the 70 line.

Going back to the chart at the top, now that gold's 14-day RSI has breached 80, we could see some immediate pullback in prices, with XAUUSD+ already seeing immediate resistance around the psychologically-important $4500 big, round number.

However, as long as the fundamental reasons (Fed rate cut expectations, safe haven demand, central bank purchases) listed above remain intact, gold should continue posting new record highs in the months ahead.

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When might we see $5,000 Gold?

ICYMI: This week's major macro events, market reactions (or lack thereof), and new Bybit listings.

There was a slew of major macro events slated for this week, but markets only mustered a limited response.

The apparent cooling in US inflation did little to alter market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January, with such odds now around 27%.

ICYMI: Risk assets got initial boost after US CPI release - 

Despite all those tier-1 events listed above, major assets merely offered a muted reaction up until the time of writing:

Trade SP500, XAUUSD+, EURGBP+, XAGUSD, Tesla and more on Bybit TradFi 

Given the dearth of scheduled market-moving catalysts for the remainder of 2025, global financial markets are set to end the year on a whimper, barring a major surprise (Santa Rally perhaps?).

This Week's (Dec 15-19) New Listings on Bybit

ICYMI, there were multiple new assets launched within the Bybit universe:

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Recap: Markets got early start to holiday season, set for quiet year-end period

3 big events out West today + 2 more big events in Japan overnight = big market opportunities for you?

Before we look at Japan's scheduled macro events, first a quick recap of the trio of scheduled macro events across major Western economies due in the hours ahead:

Markets now predict a [updated since yesterday's Daily Bits] 98% chance of a 25-basis point cut, with the next UK rate reduction fully expected in April 2026.

Markets expect the ECB to leave its rates unchanged from now through all of 2026.

Economists predict that the headline CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year (Nov 2025 vs. Nov 2024).

Core CPI (excluding volatile items such as food and energy prices) rose 3% year-on-year.

PS: Since we already gave you a heads up yesterday; hope you took heed.

At the time of writing, markets appear to be taking some risk off the table ahead of this slew of macro events:

NOTE: Gold and EURGBP+ were highlighted among our 

Trade XAUUSD+, SP500, EURGBP+, and more on Bybit TradFi 

Japan assets in focus heading into the weekend

Coming up, there are 2 major events out of Japan before the weekend arrives:

Economists predict that the Nov headline CPI eased to 2.9% year-on-year (Nov 2025 vs. Nov 2024), slightly lower than the 3% y/y figure for October.

Last month's core CPI (excluding volatile items such as food and energy prices) also is expected to have eased down to 3% year-on year versus October's 3.1% y/y figure.

At 99% odds, markets widely expect the BoJ to raise its Target Rate - anything other than a rate hike would be a massive shocker for global markets.

Looking further out, markets predict that the next BoJ rate hike (after this week's) will only occur around mid-2026 (58% chance of BoJ's next rate hike in June)

Hence, the Japanese Yen and the Nikkei 225 - Japan's benchmark stock index - are in focus:

 has rebounded (US dollar strengthening against the Japanese Yen) with this FX pair now testing its 21-day SMA as immediate resistance, with the 156.00 psychological level (big, round number) hovering nearby for added resistance.

Of course, today's US CPI release is bound to impact the USD side of the USDJPY+ equation.

According to Bloomberg's FX model, USDJPY is most likely to trade between 154.00 and 157.70 between now through Christmas day.

 - Japan's benchmark stock index - has faltered away from its all-time intraday high of 52,669.50 on Nov 4th.

Since then, this major stock index has only managed lower highs, with the 48,300 set up to be a crucial price level.

NOTE: Historically, USDJPY and the Nikkei225 tend to move in the same direction (have a 'positive correlation'). In other words, when the Japanese Yen strengthens vs. the US dollar (USDJPY goes DOWN), the Nikkei 225 goes DOWN as well, and vice versa.

Hence, given the USDJPY+ scenarios listed above, it remains to be seen whether the Nikkei225 index can:

Much of the Nikkei225's and USDJPY's fates leading up to Christmas may have to do with the outcome from Japan's CPI and and BoJ events.

How might Japan's macro events this week impact Cryptos?

For historical context, Japan has been the global supplier of "cheap money" for decades.

Japan kept interest rates super low for years, so investors could borrow yen cheaply and use that money to invest all over the world.

Japan even had NEGATIVE interest rates between early 2016 till Q1 2024!

However, since then, Japan has been RAISING its interest rates, even sending yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds to a record high!

10-year JGB yields are also at their highest since mid-2007.

Rising yields may make Japanese government bonds more attractive to global investors, potentially "sucking" money away from various assets classes, including cryptos.

And we know that, historically, cryptos have thrived on higher liquidity levels (i.e. more money available to spend and invest).

Hence, if the Bank of Japan's next policy actions threaten to disrupt global bond markets with an unruly spike in JGB (Japanese government bond) yields ...

that may translate into weaker demand for cryptocurrencies, and potentially another leg down for major crypto prices.

How might Japan's macro events overnight impact Yen, Nikkei225, even Cryptos?

Cryptos still lifeless, amid pockets of gains across TradFi. Can gold and EURGBP+ soar tomorrow?

The latest US jobs report came and went yesterday (Tue, Dec 16), with little fanfare across markets:

The mixed set of jobs data did little to budge market expectations of a 24% chance for a Fed rate cut in January 2026, with only a 30% chance of 3 US rate cuts (75bps total) for all of next year.

Still, within the tradfi world, there are pockets of notable gains:

Trade XAUUSD+, XAGUSD, Tesla, SP500, UKOUSD, and more on Bybit TradFi 

Bitcoin set for 4th yearly drop in its history

 continues to meander in sub-$90k territory, with the world's biggest crypto headed for its 4th annual decline in its history - down about 7.4% so far in 2025.

Having secured a daily close below its 21-day simple moving average, bears will be seeing if BTC will fall further and touch the $84k mark to complete the 

For proper context, an annual decline of single digits pales in comparison to the other 3 such occurrences:

Still, with crypto market sentiment still reading 'extreme fear', no surprise that the broader crypto complex has been lifeless of late.

At the time of writing, the CoinDesk 20 index - which measures top digital assets - is now down 0.7% and has been testing crucial support around the 2700 line this week.

Markets to be jolted by Thursday's events?

Even as markets head into the typically quiet year-end period, volatility may yet have a final hurrah before the curtains come down on 2025.

December 18th is set to be jam-packed with macro events:

Markets predict a 92% chance of a 25-basis point cut, with the next UK rate reduction expected in April 2026 (78% odds at present).

The Euro should strengthen against the British Pound i.e. 

EURGBP+ rising towards the 0.8840 upside target 

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