The S&P 500 hit a new record high, Gold and EURUSD soared, while crypto sentiment tries to find a more stable footing.

Following the Fed rate cut, its 3rd rate cut in a row, 

Spot prices of the world's biggest crypto yet again rebounded off its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) - 

However, across the tradfi space, major assets across global financial markets have been able to take greater advantage of US interest rates moving lower:

Trade SP500, XAUUSD+, XAGUSD, EURUSD+, US stocks and more on Bybit MT5 

Sharp rise in US jobless claims boosts next Fed rate cut odds

Even as markets were still digesting the 

from the latest FOMC meeting, markets were jolted by the latest weekly US jobless claims data. 

First-time applications for unemployment benefits in the US jumped by 44,000 last week (ending Dec 6) to 236,000.

That's the biggest jump in the weekly initial jobless claims since March 2020 at the start of the pandemic!

The idea of a weakening US labour market then bolstered bets for Fed rate cuts, with the odds of a January rate cut rising from single-digits to 27%.

Markets are set to remain sensitive to US jobs and inflation prints between now and the next FOMC rate decision due January 28, 2026.

NOTE: Look out for our Week Ahead preview to be published Monday, Dec 15.

ICNT climbs to near-4 month high after key milestones

Within the Bybit universe, ICNT has been the best-performing token over the past 24 hours, climbing over 40% to briefly post its highest prices since mid-August 2025.

ICNT is the token for the Swiss Web3 cloud platform called the Impossible Cloud Network (ICN), whose goal is to disrupt centralised tech giants with the foundations of the next-gen internet.

ICNT has soared as much as 72% since Dec 9, having been officially Verified Gold on DePIN Hub.

This award comes after ICN last week marked a full year of continuous operation since its hardware (ScalerNodes) and performance validators (HyperNodes) were launched.

: This week also saw new listings across Spot, Perps, and more for 

ALMANAK, FOLKUSDT, NIGHT, Humidifi (WET), 

Beginner

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Post-Fed rate cut: Bitcoin steadies, tradfi surges, ICNT soars +40%

Here's how major cryptos, gold, SP500 and EURUSD actually fared vs. forecasts.

The final Fed meeting of 2025 has come and gone, and major assets are posting declines at the time of writing:

The 21-day SMA has been an important support level, highlighted by 

Trade SP500, XAUUSD+, and more on Bybit MT5 

What did the Fed actually do and say on Dec 10, 2025?

Such mixed signals likely added to the topsy-turvy post-Fed moves across asset classes.

Although the US dollar has weakened against most of its G10 peers as expected*, yet Gold has been unable to take advantage of the weaker 'buck', while cryptos and stocks were dented by deteriorating risk appetite following Oracle's disappointing earnings results.

*a currency tends to weaken at the thought of its country's interest rates going down

There's been plenty of volatility in the hours following the Fed rate decision, producing long and short opportunities galore for short-term traders.

Let's see how the actual moves stack up against the market's forecasts, which we previously shared during our Dec 9 livestream and published in 

- peak to trough decline: 5.37% at the time of writing


- peak to trough decline: 8.1% at the time of writing


- peak to trough decline: 4.2% matching forecasts for the 6-hour window

- peak to trough decline: 9.5% at the time of writing

- peak to trough ascent: 1.6%, though XAUUSD+ has since pared much of its gains following the Fed rate decision

- as much as 1.3% down from peak to trough, at the time of writing, matching forecasts

- as much as 0.44% up, though EURUSD has pared some of its gains since

Forecasted and actual % moves above were for the 6 hours after yesterday's Fed rate decision.

Forecasts were based off 1 standard deviation of each asset's reactions to Fed rate decisions over the past 12 months

The Fed watch is still on, with markets shifting attentions to key US economic data releases due in the days ahead:

After all, these types of data directly feeds into the Fed's 

: "maximum employment" and "stable prices'.

In other words, after all the volatility overnight, there are bound to be more Fed-related market moves in the near future.

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ICYMI: Markets tumble after latest Fed signals

Here's why today's rate decision could rock markets, along with forecasted price reactions.

Global markets are on tenterhooks, awaiting the highly-anticipated Fed rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference later today (Wed, Dec 10).

Ahead of such a pivotal meeting, major assets are little changed at the time of writing:

Traders and investors are apparently unwilling to trigger massive moves before potentially getting 

 that may well dictate the market's year-end performance and set the stage for 2026.

As we countdown to this potentially seismic market event, here's a quick refresher on the world's most important central bank, and why it's so important for global financial markets.

The Federal Reserve is the U.S. central bank that uses interest rates to achieve maximum employment and stable prices in the world's biggest economy.

In short, the Fed is the world's most influential central bank.

Markets widely expect (90% chance) the Fed to lower its benchmark rates today by another 25-basis points (bps). If so, this would mark its 3rd consecutive rate cut.

Furthermore, markets predict (94% chance) that the Fed can only cut rates 2 times more (total 50 bps) in 2026.

 "dot plot" from the September 2025 FOMC meeting:

NOTE: The "dot plot" represents the appropriate rate level over the next few years as deemed by each participant of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - the group of 12 that actually votes on what to do (hike/hold/cut) with US interest rates.

As mentioned earlier, the Fed is the world's most important and influential central bank.

The Fed is also at the epicentre of the global financial system, given the US's stature as the world's biggest economy and the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, and the default for global trade.

What the Fed does/says, or not, along with shifts in market expectations for what the Fed might do or say, does move global financial markets - stocks, bonds, FX, commodities, even crypto.

This chart shows how the S&P 500 rebounded in tandem with the odds for a December Fed rate cut, which also helped Bitcoin find a steadier footing.

How might major assets react to the Dec 10 Fed rate decision?

If the Fed decides NOT to cut its benchmark rates today, that would be a MAJOR SHOCKER for markets!

 today's Fed rate decision (based off 1 standard deviation of each asset's reactions to Fed rate decisions over the past 12 months:

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All You Need to Know: Fed rate decision due Dec 10, 2025

The world's most powerful central bank may rock markets this year-end season, and into 2026.

Global markets are rising at the onset of a pivotal week that features the highly-anticipated Fed rate decision.

The outcome from the final scheduled FOMC policy meeting of the year is set to shape financial markets not just for the remaining weeks of 2025, but also into the new year.

Be sure to catch our preview of the incoming Fed rate decision, "Decoding the Fed's final call of 2025". The livestream will be held on Tuesday, Dec 9 @ 8:00AM GMT on:

A new record high for the SP500 would validate your votes on 

Trade SP500, NAS100, EURUSD+, USOUSD, XAUUSD+, and more on Bybit MT5 

While the Fed will kick off its 2-day policy meeting starting tomorrow (Tue, Dec 9), it's the outcomes on 

 that could rock global financial markets:

Markets currently predict a 92% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark rates by 25-basis points (bps) this week - anything else would be a shocker.

More about what to expect from this pivotal Fed meeting will be shared during our 

NOTE: Bybit Learn's usual Daily Market Updates livestreams on YouTube and X will be on hiatus - will resume on Thursday, Dec 11.

bugs may have to wait longer for a new record high

Spot gold is likely to cheer the prospects of more incoming Fed rate cuts. However, "hawkish" signals form the Fed this week may temporarily drag XAUUSD+ below $4200.

Bloomberg model 1-week forecasted trading range: 

Bloomberg FX model 1-week forecasted trading range: 0.7945 - 0.8111

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Week Ahead Preview (Dec 8-12): 3 assets to watch amid Fed rate decision

You might be surprised at which TradFi assets hit new record highs this week.

There's been a notable risk-on mood across the TradFi (traditional finance) space oof late, even as cryptos remain subdued.

, which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index, punched up to a 3-week high, less than 1% away from its record intraday high (6928.63 on Oct 30).

The SP500 has climbed a further 0.4% since Dec 3, validating (for now) 

Elsewhere across the TradFi space this week:

Trade SP500, EURUSD, Apple, Walmart, Goldman Sachs, and Gold on Bybit TradFi 

US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

 data release, due later today (Fri, Dec 5).

The PCE is the Fed's preferred way of measuring inflation.

In contrast to Tradfi gains early Friday, Bitcoin is now easing lower.

The spot price is moving away from the psychologically-important $94k mark and closer to critical support at its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Most major cryptos are also in the red, with the CoinDesk 20 index down 0.8% at the time of writing, set for two consecutive days of declines.

Still, as is often the case, there remains the outlier that's pushing against the broader tide, even as the crypto world as a whole continues shaking off the ghosts from the October 10th liquidation event.

Today's Top Performer: PORT3USDT bounces off record lows

At the time of writing, Port3 Network has the biggest-gaining token over the past 24 hours within the Bybit universe.

Port3 Network is building the AI Data Layer for Web3 - an innovative decentralized AI servicing protocol designed to fundamentally change how data is used and processed within the Web3 space.

PORT3 jumped off record lows of 0.00278, surging as high as 0.00550, before paring a tad of its gains.

Still, its price has a very long way back to recover to the 0.037 levels last seen before its Nov 22 crash, following a major security incident.

What bear market? US stocks close in on record high ahead of PCE data; PORT3 surges over 70%

Bitcoin, gold, EURUSD tend to climb in December. The S&P 500 typically enjoys a particular 7-day, year-end period.

ICYMI, December 2025 has already kicked off with a bang, at least for Bitcoin!

However, looking major TradFi assets, it's been a relatively calm start to the month so far:

The 1.16770 mark was our upside target for EURUSD+, cited during l

Trade SP500, XAUUSD+, EURUSD+, and more on Bybit MT5 

Still, the final month of the calendar year does seasonally produce gains for major asset classes.

Bitcoin's 3rd biggest monthly average climb

 of the calendar year (Oct: 22.5% average; Feb: 15.2% average)

Gold's 2nd biggest monthly average climb 

of the calendar year (January: 3% average)

However, the term "Santa Rally" is often associated with a phenomenon seen in US stock markets this time of year.

This year-end period, specifically starting from the 

final week of December through to the first 2 trading days of the new year, 

often coincides with gains in US stock markets.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has climbed 79% of the time during this 7-day period.

To be certain, for the entirety of December, the S&P 500 has averaged a slight monthly DECLINE of 0.1% over the past 10 years.

Hence, while US equities tend to enjoy some year-end cheer, stock market bulls (those hoping prices will go higher) may have to wait a couple more weeks before officially entering the "Santa Rally" period.

NOTE: The S&P 500 index is the benchmark for measuring the overall performance of US stock markets. This benchmark stock index comprises 500 industry leading names, including Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, JPMorgan, Walt Disney, Johnson and Johnson, Exxon Mobil, Netflix, Mastercard, and so many more.

Much will have to do with how these major macro events unfold - events we also highlighted in 

These events come amidst broader concerns about AI spending, geopolitical risks, credit markets, and potential bond yield volatility across major economies such as the US, UK, and Japan.

Overall, should the Fed be allowed to lower US interest rates further in 2026, while US inflation and other macro downside risks be kept at bay, that should bode well for year-end gains for risk-on assets including stocks and crypto.

"Santa Rally" incoming? Look out for these key events

Crypto sentiment remains weak, but immediate upside target remains within reach if this crucial support price level holds.

So much for all the "drama" surrounding Bitcoin's declines at the start of this week.

Recall just a couple of days ago, on Dec 1, the world's biggest crypto fell rapidly and dipped below $84k, prompting many doomsayers to appear en masse.

Since then, Bitcoin has staged a stunning rebound, not just erasing all of this past Monday's drop, but also punching its way to a 2-week high!

 - reaching a price not seen since Nov 17.

RECAP: What drove Bitcoin's drop on Dec 1st?

Coming into this new week/month, the crypto world was hit with a trio of bearish developments:

The CEO of Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), Phong Le, admitted that this Bitcoin treasury company may be forced to sell its BTC stash to keep funding its dividend payments. The company even unveiled a US$ 1.4 billion dollar reserve - but that did little to sooth market fears, initially.

Over the weekend, The People's Bank of China (PBoC) cited the re-emergence of risks surrounding speculation and hype tied to virtual currencies. The PBoC also added that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not be used as currency - key components of what constitutes modern-day "money".

3) Japan central bank chief's "hawkish" surprise

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Kazuo Ueda made public comments hinting at a December rate hike. His comments led markets to price in an 80% chance of a BoJ hike on Dec 19, while 10-year Japanese bond yields have since soared to their highest since mid-2007.

NOTE: Generally, higher government bond yields make them more attractive, pulling away investor funds from riskier assets such as stocks and cryptos.

Risk appetite is attempting a turnaround - even the SP500 is en route to erasing its Monday declines - on the back of these "risk-on" developments:

Fed funds futures now point to a 91% chance that the Federal Reserve - the most important central bank in the world - will lower US interest rates by 25-basis points on December 10th.

NOTE: The thought of US interest rates going down tends to cheer riskier assets, such as stocks and cryptos.

2) SEC's "innovation exemption" measures incoming?

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman, Paul Atkins, plans to unveil more details about the "innovation exemption" for digital-asset companies (DATs). That seemed to allay some of the fears surrounding Strategy and its fellow DAT peers, as written above.

3) Fears ease slightly on Japan bond yields

Japan's 10-year government bond auction drew solid demand on Tuesday (Dec 2), which temporarily eased Japan's bond yields lower - though that didn't stop 10-yr yields pushing to its highest since 2007 today (Wed, Dec 3).

That is, of course, the "$1 trillion" question!

(based off the notion that total crypto market cap now stands at about US$ 3.12 trillion - still some 27% and more than US$ 1 trillion below its all-time high of US$ 4.27 trillion, according to TradingView data.)

To be certain, crypto market sentiment remains fragile:

Despite the ongoing BTC rebound, Bybit's "

" meter still reads within the "fear" camp.

For context, that 28 number marks a notable easing from the 

According to Bloomberg data, Bitcoin's rebounds tend to fade when open interest on futures breach 20k - which it already has.

BTC's ongoing relief rebound may be nothing more than a short squeeze. 

Already, over the past 24 hours US$ 400 million worth of bearish bets across all tokens have been liquidated, according to Coinglass data. 

According to Bloomberg, this suggests the rebound may fade by the weekend ... though the pivotal Fed rate decision looms next week.

Key Events: BTC rebound sustained / bear market extended?

Of course, there are major MACRO events in the weeks ahead that could either determine a sustained rebound for crypto, or extend the current bear market:

For Bitcoin bulls (those hoping prices can still push higher) ...

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Bitcoin breaches $93k for first time in 2 weeks! Can the rebound last?

In Focus: world's biggest crypto, world's most-traded FX pair, and global oil benchmark.

US markets are set to re-open today after yesterday's (Thursday, Nov 27) Thanksgiving break.

But there's been a major outage in the tradfi world!

Trading of futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - one of the world's biggest exchanges for derivatives - has been halted for a few hours, which affected equities, FX, bonds, and commodities.

Still, on this final trading day of what's been a volatile November, perhaps it's opportune to take stock of the big intra-month swings for major assets:

Note that, in recent days, USOUSD found support at the psychologically-important 

- a key price level previously highlighted during the 

Bitcoin struggling after flirting with $92k

The first-born crypto has teased the $92k handle since yesterday, but is struggling for upside momentum at present.

Assets & Events Watchlist: Nov 29 - Dec 5

The market's shifting expectations surrounding the December Fed rate cut is likely set to dominate market sentiment, even as the Fed enters its "blackout period" leading up to the Dec 9-10 FOMC meeting.

Still, there are bound to be potential trading and investing opportunities across asset classes:

(Brent Crude Oil - the global benchmark for oil prices)

Bloomberg FX model 1-week forecasted trading range: 1.1486 - 1.1677

Lower-than-expected inflation/weakening US jobs markets could firm bets for a December Fed rate cut and boost risk assets, including cryptos

will take a break on Mon-Tue: Dec 1 - 2; will resume on Wed, Dec 3.

3 Asset to Watch - Week Ahead Preview (Dec 1-5)

Can BTC reach the $95k upside target we cited back on Nov 21?

With US markets closed today, holiday-thinned liquidity is leaving major assets little changed at the time of writing:

The S&P 500's rebound of as much as 4.75% over the past week now leaves this widely-followed US stock index just 0.4% away from erasing its November monthly decline, and just 1.3% below its all-time intraday record high in late October.

All of the above price action comes as markets revive expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, with Fed funds futures presently pointing to an 80% likelihood.

Trade US stock indices, FX pairs, and Gold on 

Bitcoin rebounds 14% in a week amid greenshoots of easing fears

Despite the US holiday, the OG crypto is now rebounding to a 1-week high, trading above $91k at the time of writing.

Having secured a daily close above the psychological $89k level, it remains to be seen whether BTC can reach the 

1) Market expectations for Bitcoin volatility over the next 30 days have eased lower:

2) Major US-listed crypto ETFs have attracted inflows across the likes of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, even Dogecoin - even posting a net inflow over the past 1 week according to Bloomberg data.

However, the world's biggest crypto ETF - iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) - still has a net outflow of US$ 483 million from the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

Other initial signs that crypto sentiment may be shifting:

But this print of 22 on the "Market Sentiment" meter is notably higher than the 

Ultimately, Bitcoin has a lot more to do to claw away at the 27% gap between current prices and its all-time high registered back on Oct 6.

Today's Top Performer: SD hits 2-week high

Since yesterday, SD/USDT has bounced off near 2-year lows to flirt with the 0.40 mark - a price not seen since Nov 12. SD is the token for Stader Labs - a significant entity in the liquid staking domain.

At the time of writing, SD is testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for immediate resistance, with this widely-followed technical indicator refusing to let SD bulls push prices above since early September.

Without an apparent catalyst for its ongoing price surge, beyond the fervent X posts championing SD, it remains to be seen whether this buy-now narrative can be sustained.

At least for now, judging by the CoinDesk 20 index set for its 5th daily advance from the past six days, smaller tokens are perhaps enjoying some lift in what has been scarce bouts of risk-taking activities across crypto markets of late.

Thanksgiving Gifts? Bitcoin rebounds above $91k, SD soars over 50%

GBPUSD traders await crucial UK autumn budget announcement due 12:30PM GMT.

Markets are pushing higher in tandem with rising expectations for a December Fed rate cut.

At the time of writing, Fed funds futures point to an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve - the world's most influential central bank - will lower US interest rates by a further 25-basis points next month.

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Post-Fed rate cut: Bitcoin steadies, tradfi surges, ICNT soars +40%

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ICYMI: Markets tumble after latest Fed signals

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All You Need to Know: Fed rate decision due Dec 10, 2025

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Week Ahead Preview (Dec 8-12): 3 assets to watch amid Fed rate decision

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What bear market? US stocks close in on record high ahead of PCE data; PORT3 surges over 70%

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"Santa Rally" incoming? Look out for these key events

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Bitcoin breaches $93k for first time in 2 weeks! Can the rebound last?

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3 Asset to Watch - Week Ahead Preview (Dec 1-5)

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Thanksgiving Gifts? Bitcoin rebounds above $91k, SD soars over 50%

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GBPUSD up 5 days in a row. Can it climb higher? XION up 103% in past 24 hours.

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Gold breaks out! Will it hit upside target? Also, MON soars over 500%!

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Calmer Week for Markets (Nov 24-28)?