Weekly Institutional Insights: US payroll expected to weaken; Ether doubts mount

Mar 31, 2025: Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

Weekly highlight — Payroll is expected to further soften

Source: Bloomberg

US employers likely slowed hiring in March amid rising consumer caution and a dimmer economic outlook due to concerns over higher tariffs. Payrolls increased by 138,000, falling short of the 151,000 rise from the previous month, marking the slowest average job growth since October. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.

The labor market report comes as economic data shows a significant slowdown in Q1, with personal spending barely rising, soft disposable income growth and declining consumer sentiment over inflation fears.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other Board of Governors members will address the economic outlook shortly after the jobs data release next Friday. The anxiety surrounding President Trump's aggressive trade policies is mounting, especially with the expected significant tariff increase on imports.

Trump stated he is unconcerned about potential auto price hikes due to these tariffs. Bloomberg Economics predicts that effective tariffs could reach around 15% next year, the highest in nearly a century, which may keep the Fed from lowering rates amid inflation risks.

With consumer confidence waning, any significant drop in job growth could heighten economic concerns. Upcoming manufacturing and services surveys from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global are anticipated to provide further insights.

Weekly crypto highlight — Ether doubts mount as volatility rattles market

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s founder, was once celebrated as a visionary in the cryptocurrency realm. Known for his quirky style and idealistic views, he’s aimed to revolutionize finance and digital life via Ethereum, a significant competitor to Bitcoin. However, as Ethereum enters its second decade, it’s struggling to meet early expectations amid a rapidly evolving industry influenced by political shifts, notably under Donald Trump.

Developers are leaving, early supporters are frustrated — and Ethereum's token (ETH, or Ether) has underperformed compared to Bitcoin and other competitors. Complaints about Buterin's leadership have intensified, leading him to express the challenges of maintaining a positive environment for talent within the Ethereum Foundation.

Despite Ethereum remaining the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, its value plummeted approximately 44% in 2025, marking its worst quarterly performance since 2022. While BTC has gained 30% over the past year, ETH has declined 45%, losing ground to rivals like Solana, which has experienced 83% growth in developer activity.

Analysts have downgraded Ethereum's year-end forecast by 60%, citing an identity crisis and dwindling dominance. At a recent conference, Buterin acknowledged the unmet promises of Ethereum but stressed the need for sustainable long-term value.

Buterin, who authored the Ethereum white paper in 2014 after dropping out of college, envisioned a decentralized platform for digital contracts and applications. Despite Ethereum's speculative highs, he has remained detached from material wealth.

In contrast to the crypto landscape embracing Trump's rhetoric, Buterin has maintained a critical stance, labeling “politician coins” as risky and detrimental to democracy. He hasn’t commented further on these issues, reflecting his commitment to Ethereum's foundational ideals amid shifting industry dynamics.

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