Bybit Crypto Insights Report: Ethereum at 10: A decade of disruption and the road Ahead

Ethereum has entered its second decade as the leading smart contract platform, evolving from a proof of work (PoW) blockchain into a broad economic network underpinned by a proof of stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. As of 2025, Ethereum secures hundreds of billions of dollars in digital assets and settles millions of transactions daily, serving as the backbone for decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and an expanding array of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). Over the next ten years, Ethereum’s road map envisions major protocol upgrades to vastly improve scalability and security while solidifying its role as a yield-bearing asset and financial layer. 

This report provides an analytical 10-year outlook for Ethereum, focusing on technological developments, economic and competitive dynamics, infrastructure for DeFi/NFTs, institutional adoption, regulatory trendsand key metrics. 

Technological road map: Scaling Ethereum for the next decade

Ethereum’s technical road map through 2035 is centered on dramatically increasing throughput and user experience without compromising security or decentralization. Having successfully completed its transition to a PoS consensus mechanism in 2022 (The Merge) and Shapella upgrade (which enabled staking withdrawals starting in 2023), the network is now in the midst of a series of upgrades aimed at scalability. A key focus is on danksharding, a redesigned approach to sharding that emphasizes data availability for Layer 2 rollups. Instead of introducing 64 separate “shard chains” as once envisioned, danksharding spreads the burden of storing rollup data across all nodes via data blobs, thereby reducing the per-node storage requirements and boosting throughput. An interim step, proto-danksharding (EIP-4844), was deployed in 2024’s Dencun hard fork to introduce blob-carrying transactions and significantly cut rollup fees. By the end of 2025, Ethereum plans to increase blob data capacity (e.g., double the blob count per block) to further cheapen Layer 2 (L2) transactions.

Another priority is that of execution engine improvements. Ethereum’s developers are exploring a next-generation virtual machine based on the RISC-V architecture, which could replace the EVM to achieve 3–5x higher smart contract execution efficiency and 50–70% lower gas costs. This new execution environment, expected to roll out gradually between 2025 and 2030, would maintain EVM compatibility while leveraging modern hardware acceleration for better performance. In parallel, Ethereum’s Layer 1 (L1) chain may integrate zero-knowledge EVM (zkEVM) proofs directly into its protocol. By 2025–2026, researchers aim to verify 99% of blocks with succinct zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs within 10 seconds. This could monumentally enhance security and enable privacy-preserving transactions, giving institutions greater confidence (for example, ZK proofs could assure compliance and privacy for financial transactions on Ethereum). 

Together, data sharding plus a zk-enabled execution layer set the stage for exponential throughput gains. Indeed, Ethereum’s long-term targets include “beast mode” performance of one giga-gas per second on L1 and one teragas per second on L2 — representing orders of magnitude above today’s capacity. Ethereum 3.0’s vision is to fuse zkEVM rollups with sharding by 2027–2028 in order to reach millions of transactions per second (TPS) while cutting data costs by 99%, effectively preparing the network for web3-scale global usage.

Equally important are the upgrades to Ethereum’s consensus and user experience. Plans are underway to achieve single-slot finality, allowing blocks to be finalized in as little as one slot (around 12 seconds), instead of the current 15 minutes, which would enhance security against reorgs and be more convenient for applications. The validator experience is also set to improve: by 2025–2026: Ethereum intends to lower the minimum staking requirement from 32 ETH to (potentially) 1 ETH, and optimize validator duties for lighter hardware. This could boost the validator count dramatically and promote decentralization. Notable proposals aim to raise validators’ annual yields from approximately 4–6% to 6–8% by adjusting incentives, although in practice, yield percentages depend upon the total ETH staked (more stakers spread out protocol issuance) and fee revenue. 

Ethereum’s road map also embraces account abstraction, enabling smart-contract wallets natively. Starting with the 2025 Pectra upgrade, users can attach smart-contract logic to externally owned accounts (EOAs), unlocking features such as batched transactions, sponsored fees and social recovery wallets. This development blurs the line between user accounts and contracts, improving security and usability for mainstream users. Further out, statelessness via Verkle trees and history expiration (the Verge and Purge milestones) will prune the chain’s state size, allowing even resource-limited devices (such as mobile phones) to verify the chain without storing its entire history. 

In summary, Ethereum’s technical trajectory over the next decade is ambitious: cheaper transactions, higher throughput, quicker finality and more user-friendly wallets — all while enhancing security against evolving threats.

Ethereum’s Lean vision: Resilience for the next century

In July 2025, Ethereum’s core researchers introduced a strategic shift dubbed Lean Ethereum, reframing the long-term road map around maximal resilience and modular simplicity. This vision, articulated by Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake, is essentially a fortress approach to ensure Ethereum can “survive anything” (from state-level attacks to quantum computing) and “scale everything” (without unnecessary complexity). Lean Ethereum is an evolution of an earlier concept called Beam Chain, an overhaul of the consensus layer that has now expanded into a holistic redesign of Ethereum’s core layers (consensus, data, execution) with three pillars: minimalism, modularity and resilience.

In fort mode, Ethereum prioritizes durability over the course of decades. This entails hardening the network against even theoretical threats, such as quantum attacks. For example, its community is evaluating a move away from cryptographic primitives like BLS signatures and KZG commitments (used in today’s staking and data availability) toward simpler, quantum-resistant hash-based alternatives. The ethos is to minimize external dependencies: if a component isn’t absolutely essential, simplify or remove it to reduce attack surface. At the same time, Ethereum’s development process itself has matured into a decentralized, multi-team effort, which core developers view as key to resilience. 

Ethereum has maintained 100% uptime since its 2015 launch through 2025, withstanding numerous attacks and major upgrades without ever halting block production. This reliability, as one Ethereum core engineer noted, has fostered trust, and will remain non-negotiable. The “lean” road map doubles down on that principle by planning for post-quantum cryptography, ultra-light clients and diversified clients — ensuring Ethereum can thrive even under “harshest adversaries” and outlive its creators.

Simultaneously, Lean Ethereum’s beast mode accepts that to remain dominant, the protocol must aggressively scale performance while remaining decentralized. The earlier section (above) noted the aspirational throughput goals (gigagas/sec on L1). Lean Ethereum provides direction for how to achieve this: 

• Lean Consensus implies a streamlined Beacon Chain, with near-instant finality and upgraded signature schemes. 

• Lean Data extends the proto-danksharding model with variable-size blobs and sophisticated data availability sampling that’s post-quantum secure. 

• Lean Execution envisions a minimal execution environment, possibly a SNARK-friendly RISC-V instruction set, that remains EVM-compatible but far more efficient to verify. In essence, execution could be redesigned from the ground up to be provable and light. 

These ideas align with ongoing work (the zkEVM and RISC-V plans noted earlier) and suggest that, by the early 2030s, Ethereum may have a very different under-the-hood architecture.

Importantly, the Lean initiative is now publicly tracked via a community-driven site (leanroadmap.org) to coordinate research and development across teams. The Ethereum Foundation isn’t imposing a rigid road map, but by articulating this vision, it’s offering a playbook for the protocol’s evolution that extends well beyond the 2020s into a “century of security and scalability.” This pivot indicates that Ethereum is entering a new phase of architectural maturity, and is focusing not just on the next upgrade but on how to ossify a robust, modular base layer that can serve as critical infrastructure for generations. 

For traders and investors, the Lean Ethereum strategy sends a message that the protocol is being engineered for longevity. The network is likely to undergo a multi-year refactoring (with incremental hard forks, such as 2026’s Glamsterdam and beyond) that aims to make Ethereum simpler, safer and more prepared for unpredictable challenges. By 2035, if this vision is realized, Ethereum should be a lean, highly scalable settlement layer with much of the complexity abstracted to L2 rollups — in other words, a “layer of resilience” forming the backbone of web3 and global finance.

ETH as a yield-bearing asset and economic layer

One defining feature of Ethereum’s transformation to PoS is that ETH now generates yield for holders who stake and help secure the network. This staking return has effectively made Ether the first major crypto asset with a native yield akin to a bond or dividend, establishing ETH as the de facto benchmark yield in the crypto economy. As of mid-2025, staking rewards for validators hover around 4%–5% annualized, comprising multiple components:

• New ETH issuance (protocol inflation) 

• Priority fees (“tips”)

• MEV extraction rewards

For example, in late 2024, the base issuance yield was about 2.8%, with roughly 22% of ETH supply staked, plus around 0.5% from fees and 0.5% from MEV, totaling around 3.8%–4% APR. These figures adjust as participation changes — if more ETH is staked, the per-validator issuance share decreases, pushing yields lower, whereas higher network activity (more fees/MEV) can boost rewards. Notably, Ethereum’s monetary policy includes a minimum issuance floor of 1.5% APR (reached only if 100% of ETH were to be staked, with zero transactions), meaning that there will always be some baseline yield for securing the chain.

From an investment perspective, ETH’s yield has begun to function as a “risk-free rate” for the crypto ecosystem. In traditional markets, US Treasury yields set the benchmark for dollar-based returns. Analogously, staked ETH yields are increasingly referenced as the baseline cost of capital in DeFi. ARK Invest researchers argue that Ether is acquiring bond-like properties: Investors can hold ETH and stake to earn a predictable return, or use liquid staking tokens to earn yield while retaining liquidity. This dynamic is influencing other networks, as many alternative L1s must offer higher yields or incentives to attract capital, given ETH’s relatively lower-risk profile and deep liquidity. 

Ether staking and yield

Indeed, Ethereum’s staking rate and yield may become a reference point for yield curves in crypto finance. An example of this influence is the way that lending/borrowing rates in DeFi often price against the staking yield (since staking ETH is an opportunity cost). Some analysis suggests ETH staking yields could even guide expectations of economic conditions, similar to the way that Treasury yields inform macro outlooks. For instance, when on-chain transaction fees (and thus staking rewards) surge, it might signal frothy activity and high demand for block space — a kind of crypto-native economic indicator.

Crucially, Ethereum’s design after EIP-1559 (implemented in 2021) makes ETH not only yield-bearing, but also potentially deflationary, reinforcing its role as a unique economic asset. Under EIP-1559, a portion of every transaction fee (the base fee) is burned. During periods of heavy usage, the burn rate can outpace the issuance from staking rewards, causing net ETH supply to decrease (as seen during the NFT and DeFi booms). This “ultrasound money” dynamic means that ETH holders benefit from both yield and value accrual via scarcity. 

For example, network revenue (which translates to fees burned plus MEV) has been projected to grow dramatically. One detailed valuation model from VanEck forecasts that Ethereum’s annual network revenue could reach $51 billion by 2030, up from $2.6 billion in 2023. If such growth materializes, a substantial portion of that revenue would be burned ETH, increasing the scarcity of the remaining supply. VanEck’s base-case scenario expects Ether’s total circulating supply to stay nearly flat (around 121 million ETH in 2030, roughly the same as 2023), due to the countervailing forces of issuance and burn. In a bull case with extremely high fees, ETH’s supply could even drop to around 113 million by 2030. This means Ethereum has effectively become an equity-like platform as token holders capture value from network usage — a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s fixed supply but with zero yield.

ETH as yield-bearing token

For traders and exchanges, ETH’s yield-bearing nature has several implications. It introduces a carry trade element to ETH holdings: an investor shorting ETH must pay the staking yield (similar to shorting a dividend stock), while a long-term holder earns yield that can offset some volatility. This tends to encourage holding ETH, reducing free float on exchanges as more investors lock up coins in staking contracts. For instance, after the April 2023 Shanghai upgrade (which enabled withdrawals), staking participation surged: as of 2024, roughly 20%–25% of all ETH is staked, a figure that may climb toward 40% or higher by the end of the decade. If the minimum staking threshold drops to 1 ETH, we could see millions of smaller holders staking their ETH, pushing the participation rate even further. A higher staking rate diminishes circulating supply, potentially increasing price stability (or upward pressure), but it also means that exchanges must innovate to keep trading volumes high, despite fewer coins being available for speculative trading. 

Many exchanges have responded by offering liquid staking products or derivatives, allowing users to stake ETH via the exchange and still trade a representative token. Additionally, exchanges might see ETH yield markets develop — for example, futures or swaps, tied to the staking yield (similar to interest rate swaps), which traders can use to speculate or hedge on changes in ETH’s reward rate. 

Overall, Ether’s status as a yield-generating, deflationary asset solidifies its position as the economic lynchpin of the crypto industry, comparable to a reserve asset that underpins DeFi by serving as both collateral and as a source of return.

Competitive landscape: Ethereum vs. other Layer 1 chains

Despite Ethereum’s dominance in smart contract platforms, it faces continual competition from other L1 blockchains pursuing higher performance or specialized niches. Over the next decade, the “multichain” landscape will likely persist, with Ethereum striving to remain the settlement layer of choice while rival chains challenge it based on throughput, cost or community traction. 

As of 2025, Ethereum still leads by most fundamental metrics — it has the largest developer community and the most value secured. An estimated 10,955 monthly active developers work within the Ethereum ecosystem (including L2s and EVM-compatible chains), far more than for any single competitor, indicating unparalleled network effects in developer talent. Correspondingly, Ethereum commands the largest share of total value locked (TVL) in DeFi and the majority of NFT market volume. 

However, some competitors have carved out significant territory. For example, Solana, a high-throughput chain with a unique Proof of History consensus, has seen periods when its on-chain activity rivaled or even surpassed Ethereum’s. By mid-2025, Solana accounted for about 44% of a composite “on-chain activity” index (weighted by transactions, volume and fees), while Ethereum’s share had been declining within that metric. This shift was attributed in part to Solana’s explosion of low-cost meme token trading (as well as specific apps driving high transaction counts). In addition, Solana’s ability to handle high TPS at low fees has attracted usage in areas that demand speed, such as trading and gaming. It’s notable, however, that much of Solana’s surge was driven by short-term speculative activity (e.g., meme coins), and sustaining such dominance will require expanding into more durable use cases.

Source: Artemis

Competing L1 platforms

Other L1s focus on different trade-offs. BNB Chain (Binance Smart Chain) uses a centralized validator set to offer cheap, fast transactions, mainly supporting Binance’s ecosystem of apps. It has significant user numbers (especially for gaming and simple DeFi), but relies on Binance’s backing. TRON (TRX), while often overlooked in the West, has become a major player for stablecoin transfers (especially USDT), due to its negligible fees, and consistently ranks high in transaction volume and value transfer. In fact, TRON and Solana have at times surpassed Ethereum in raw transaction counts or stablecoin throughput, albeit with far lower fee revenue (since their fees are minimal). 

Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX) and Cosmos (ATOM) represent other approaches — from Cardano’s research-driven slow road map to Polkadot’s multichain sharded network, Avalanche’s subnets and Cosmos’s interoperable zones. None of these individually match Ethereum’s DeFi or NFT activity, but they compete in terms of governance, flexibility and/or specific use cases. For instance, Avalanche’s subnets allow institutions to run customized L1s, and Cosmos powers several app-specific chains (such as for exchange trading or gaming) that collectively form an alternative network. By 2030, it’s plausible that a handful of these chains will maintain substantial ecosystems, creating a polyculture of L1s each serving different niches or geographic user bases.

Ethereum’s blockchain dominance

That said, Ethereum’s strategic bet is on a rollup-centric scaling model that effectively absorbs demand via L2 networks, rather than yielding users to other L1 chains. This approach leverages Ethereum’s strongest moat: its security and decentralization. We’ve already seen that many so-called “Ethereum killers” have pivoted to become Ethereum complements. For example, some alternative L1s now offer EVM compatibility, or even serve as data availability layers for rollups. Over 90% of smart contract developers work on EVM-compatible platforms, indicating that Ethereum’s technology standard (the EVM) extends even to rivals. The rise of L2 solutions (Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, Starknet and others) has begun to recapture use cases that might have left Ethereum during times of high fees. By 2025, Ethereum L2s collectively handle a large volume of transactions (often 5–10x the L1 count) and are continuously growing. 

The implication is that while Solana or others may lead on base-layer throughput, Ethereum plus its L2 constellation can scale out horizontally. The Binance Research group expects seamless interoperability between Ethereum L1 and major L2s by 2027, potentially unifying liquidity across chains and reducing cross-chain friction by 90%. If achieved, this means users may not need to leave the Ethereum ecosystem for cost or speed — they can operate on L2s with near-instant finality and negligible fees, while still settling on Ethereum for security.

Ethereum’s edge

In order for Ethereum to fend off competition long-term, its upcoming “beast mode” upgrades (danksharding, zkEVM, etc.) are pivotal. These could enable Ethereum L1 to process vastly more data and serve as a high-capacity backbone for all L2s. Or course, rival L1s won’t stand still either — for example, Solana is planning its own upgrades (such as an initiative code named Alpenglow to overhaul consensus and lower validator costs), and new L1s will emerge. But Ethereum benefits from a decade of battle-testing and community building. It has survived “minimum viable decentralization” challenges (e.g., concerns over mining pools, or now, staking pools concentration), and is actively addressing them (encouraging solo staking, etc.). 

Moreover, the Ethereum network’s brand and Lindy Effect attract institutional integration that smaller chains struggle to attain. Case in point: almost all major DeFi protocols and stablecoins launch on Ethereum first. Even projects on other chains often maintain Ethereum versions for liquidity access. By 2035, Ethereum’s competitive position will likely depend upon whether it achieves its scaling promises in time. If Ethereum can offer user experiences via L2s that are comparable to Solana’s (fast and cheap) by late-decade, then its network effects could overpower most would-be competitors. If not, we could see migration of activity to alternative L1s that optimize different priorities (some perhaps not yet launched). 

As of mid-2025, there’s evidence of Ethereum losing ground in certain metrics (e.g., share of transactions), but also signs of resilience — for example, despite Solana’s activity surge, Ethereum still carries the majority of total DeFi value and stablecoin liquidity, and its fee revenue — while lower than peak — remains far above that of smaller chains. The next bull cycle may be the real test, as it will reveal whether Ethereum’s layered scaling approach can accommodate new waves of users or whether a competitor can truly usurp its role. Traders should monitor on-chain adoption indices: a Coinbase Institutional report noted Ethereum’s share of meaningful activity was slipping and highlighted Solana and TRON surpassing Ethereum in certain revenue metrics. However, Ethereum’s trajectory showed a turn upward by mid-2025 with a surge in price and on-chain activity marking a potential inflection. 

In short, Ethereum enters the next decade as the L1 frontrunner, but not without challengers. Its ability to innovate and integrate new technology (such as ZK proofs) will likely determine whether it maintains a network effects lead or cedes specific domains to specialized L1s.

Institutional adoption and enterprise use cases

One of the most striking developments in recent years has been the deepening involvement of institutional players in the Ethereum ecosystem. Between 2023 and 2025 alone, we’ve seen household names in finance and tech launch Ethereum-based products or infrastructure pilots: examples include BlackRock’s tokenized fund, PayPal’s stablecoin, Visa experimenting with stablecoin payments on Ethereum and even central banks testing cross-border payments using Ethereum-compatible networks. Looking ahead to 2035, Ethereum is on track to serve as a critical platform for enterprise and institutional use cases, from capital markets to supply chain to web3 gaming.

One clear indicator of institutional interest is the entrance of major asset managers and banks. In March 2024, BlackRock (the world’s largest asset manager) introduced BUIDL, a tokenized money market fund initially launched on Ethereum. This fund offers investors on-chain access to a traditionally off-chain product (money market yields), with the advantages of instantaneous settlement and interoperability with DeFi. BlackRock’s head of digital assets described it as wrapping a traditional exposure “in a crypto native wrapper.” After launching on Ethereum, BlackRock expanded this fund to a handful of other networks (including three Ethereum L2s) to ensure broad accessibility. The fact that Ethereum was the starting point underscores its position as the blockchain of choice for tokenized securities. By early 2025, over 160 RWAs were issued on Ethereum, held by over 60,000 unique addresses — and this count excludes stablecoins, suggesting a blossoming market for on-chain bonds, funds and invoices. Consistent with this trend, six of the top ten protocols for RWAs are on Ethereum or its L2s.

Source: Consensys

Building Ethereum-based infrastructure

Financial institutions aren’t stopping at issuing tokens: some are building Ethereum-based infrastructure. One notable example is Deutsche Bank’s partnership with ZKSync (Matter Labs) to develop an L2 rollup, codenamed Project DAMA, aimed at institutional applications. The goal of this private rollup is to achieve a scalable, auditable ledger that integrates with public and private systems — essentially a compliant DeFi platform for global finance. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has been coordinating such trials (e.g., Project Guardian), and having a major bank like Deutsche Bank run an Ethereum rollup illustrates confidence in Ethereum’s tech stack for serious finance. 

Meanwhile, the CEO of ZKSync’s team noted that institutions choose such solutions for “privacy, scalability and interoperability” while still benefiting from Ethereum’s security and ecosystem. Similarly, J.P. Morgan’s Onyx platform (which uses a variant of Ether for interbank payments, and JPM Coin) and the Canton Network (a consortium for on-chain finance using Daml smart contracts interoperable with Ethereum) show that large consortia are comfortable with Ethereum’s fundamentals, even if in permissioned settings. By 2030, it’s plausible that many banks and asset managers will be operating their own Ethereum rollups or sidechains, all settling on the Ethereum mainnet for finality. This will create a hub-and-spoke model with Ethereum at the center of a new financial market infrastructure.

Enterprises outside of finance are also adopting Ethereum. For instance, in 2024 Sony launched a general-purpose Ethereum rollup (Soneium) using Optimism’s tech stack that aims to support a broad web3 ecosystem of gaming and entertainment apps. Large corporations see blockchain as a way to add transparency and efficiency to their operations and/or products. Ethereum’s robust tool set and developer base make it an attractive option. By 2035, we might see supply chain consortia using Ethereum L2s to track provenance of goods, media companies issuing NFTs or fan tokens at scale and tech firms using Ethereum for identity and authentication systems (Microsoft’s experiments with decentralized IDs, for example, have touched on Ethereum). The Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA), formed in 2017, continues to standardize enterprise-friendly extensions of Ethereum, and its work could lead to even more adoption in sectors like healthcare (for patient records), energy (for carbon credit trading) and government (for records and verifications). Some nations are even testing CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) on Ethereum-related technology. For example, Brazil’s pilot CBDC in 2024 used an Ethereum-compatible Hyperledger Besu network, and projects like EU’s digital euro have at times leveraged Ethereum-derived tech for prototyping.

Investment and regulatory landscape

One major catalyst for institutional adoption is that of regulatory clarity and investment products. By 2025, the US had approved futures-based ETH ETFs, and an ETH Spot ETF seemed on the horizon. It’s expected that by 2030, multiple Ethereum Spot ETFs will be available in jurisdictions like the US, EU and Asia, allowing pensions, endowments and individuals to gain exposure to ETH through traditional brokerage channels. In fact, according to some reports, over $18 billion flowed into ETH futures ETFs in their initial phase in 2024, thus demonstrating pent-up demand. This Wall Street integration not only boosts Ethereum’s liquidity and market cap, but also further legitimizes it as an investable asset. When large asset allocators hold ETH in their portfolios (even if indirectly via ETFs), they become stakeholders in the Ethereum ecosystem and have incentive to support its growth — for example, by participating in governance or providing liquidity within DeFi.

Beyond investing, corporate treasury adoption of ETH is another emerging trend. Companies like SharpLink Gaming in 2024 announced they would hold part of their treasuries in Ether, treating it as a reserve asset. Since ETH demonstrates qualities like yield and deflation (which many fiat currencies lack), some firms may choose to allocate a portion of cash reserves to ETH, similar to the way in which companies hold BTC or gold. 

Stablecoins, remittances and bond issuance

One critical area of enterprise use is that of stablecoins and payments. Corporations are actively leveraging Ethereum for issuing stablecoins (as noted with PayPal and Robinhood). Payment giants like Visa and Mastercard have been experimenting with settling transactions over Ethereum, Visa has piloted automatic payments using Ethereum’s L2 and Mastercard launched crypto credential standards for blockchains. If regulatory conditions allow, banks could issue their own stablecoins on Ethereum (essentially tokenized deposits). In 2023, for example, Hong Kong’s ZA Bank facilitated retail clients to trade ETH and BTC directly with fiat, reflecting how fintechs in crypto-friendly jurisdictions integrate Ethereum into banking apps. By 2030, stablecoins on Ethereum may be used in everyday commerce (potentially through payment layers that abstract gas fees), and enterprises might routinely use stablecoins for B2B settlements, payroll, etc., because of the gains in efficiency.

Institutional adoption of Ethereum is multifaceted and rapidly increasing. Ethereum is no longer just the realm of crypto startups; it’s part of strategic road maps for the world’s largest financial and tech institutions. The network effect from this adoption is profound: as more blue chip players build on or with Ethereum, it reinforces Ethereum’s position as the primary settlement layer for the new digital economy. For traders, greater institutional involvement generally means higher liquidity and more robust markets (but also potentially more correlation with traditional assets, as institutions treat ETH similar to commodities or tech stocks). For the network, it means additional resources and validation — e.g., client teams funded by enterprises or new use cases driving base demand (such as gas fees from tokenized asset transfers). 

By 2035, Ethereum could be deeply interwoven with the global financial system, functioning as an open infrastructure that many exchanges, banks and companies interface with daily.

Key metrics and forecasts through 2035

Projecting a decade out for a fast-evolving network like Ethereum is challenging, but we can outline key metrics and expected trends based on current data and planned developments. These metrics include network usage and throughput, security and decentralization, economic considerations (supply, staking rates, yields) and ecosystem health indicators. Below, we discuss each and provide forecasts or ranges for 2030–2035, grounded in analysis from credible sources.

• Throughput (transactions and throughput capacity): Ethereum’s L1 currently processes on the order of 1–1.5 million transactions per day (around 12–15 TPS on average), often limited by gas constraints. With rollups handling more load, L1 usage has somewhat plateaued. For instance, in July 2025, L1 processed 46.7 million transactions (about 1.5M per day). By 2030, after the introduction of proto-danksharding and full danksharding, the base layer could see a dramatic capacity increase. Vitalik Buterin’s road map calls for L1 to eventually support around 100,000 TPS through sharding — though in practice, this would primarily represent rollup data, rather than direct user cryptocurrency transactions (TXNs). Lean Ethereum’s beast mode target is even more ambitious: 1 giga-gas per second on L1, which roughly translates to approximately 160,000 TPS if one assumes 1 gas = a simple computation. On L2, the target is 1 teragas per second — effectively millions of TPS in aggregate across rollups. These are aspirational (for over a decade from now). A conservative estimate is that by 2035, Ethereum’s L1 might handle 5,000–10,000 TPS of data availability for L2s (enough to support major global applications), while L2s will present users with speeds of approximately 50K–100K TPS, collectively. In essence, the majority of transactions will occur on L2s. We already saw in 2024 that combined rollup transactions surpass L1 transactions; by 2030, L1s might be mainly used for large settlement transactions and blob data, with everyday user activity abstracted away. Another measure is that of data throughput — in July 2025, the monthly data usage for rollups (blobs) on Ethereum L1 exceeded 100,000 MB for the first time, a figure likely to grow by orders of magnitude with full sharding.

• Gas fees and transaction costs: Users care about fees, and Ethereum’s high fees in the past have driven many of them to alternatives. With scaling improvements, fees are expected to drop significantly for typical transactions. Already, EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding) can cut rollup fees around 10x by introducing cheap blob storage. The 2025 Pectra upgrade — which doubles blob count — will further cheapen L2 fees. Combined with upgrades like sharding and the RISC-V engine (reducing execution gas cost by 50–70%), we can project that by 2030, the effective cost per transaction for an end user on a rollup could be fractions of a cent for simple transfers, and only a bit higher for complex smart contract calls. 

On L1s, however, gas prices may still be high for direct use — and it’s likely that only sophisticated or high-value uses will justify L1 execution. The base fee mechanism will continue to adjust, such that Ethereum’s L1 is nearly always at capacity (whatever that capacity is). In absolute terms, if demand truly skyrockets, L1 fees might still occasionally spike, which would lead to massive ETH burns. Generally, however, Ethereum’s aim is to make transaction fees negligible for most users by pushing activity to L2s. One thing to watch for is whether Ethereum introduces layered fee markets or bandwidth auctions for blob space, as this could influence costs for rollup operators. Overall, by 2035 we foresee an Ethereum on which fee constraints are no longer the main barrier for users; in terms of cost and speed, the UX on L2 will be akin to using a Web 2.0 app.

Source: Ethereum Foundation

• Staking participation and validator count: Staking participation has been climbing since The Merge. At the end of 2024, about 20% of ETH was staked, and mid-2025 saw around 25% staked. Several factors will encourage more staking: the Shanghai upgrade allows withdrawals, which removes liquidity risk; institutional staking services are growing; and potential protocol changes (such as reducing the minimum stake to 1 ETH) will lower entry barriers. The Binance Research forecast expects staking participation to exceed 40% of ETH supply in a few years. By 2030, it wouldn’t be surprising if 50% or more of all ETH is staked. With an eventual supply of perhaps around 120 million ETH, that could mean 60M ETH staked. If the minimum per validator is still 32 ETH, that’s around 1.9 million validators — but more likely, the entry threshold will decrease or pooling solutions will remain popular, so the actual validator count might be in the millions (especially if 1 ETH validators takes place — and then tens of millions of validators would be possible, though that would introduce networking challenges). The Ethereum Foundation’s researchers have considered distributed validator technology (DVT), which would allow many small stakes to securely behave as one validator. So a plausible scenario is as follows: By 2035, Ethereum could have 5–10 million active validators, making it orders of magnitude more decentralized than today’s 0.7–1 million. (To put this in context, Token Terminal reported approximately 1.1M validators around mid-2025 across Ethereum.) Each validator’s rewards will be smaller, due to the larger number of participants: the base issuance might drop to around 1.5% if participation is extremely high, but fees and MEV could add a couple percent. That leads to the next metric of yields.

• Staking yield: Currently at around 4% APR, this will trend downward if a larger percentage of ETH is staked (protocol issuance is fixed relative to total stake — more staking means each validator gets a smaller slice). In the extreme case of, say, >50% of ETH being staked, issuance yields could approach perhaps 2% or lower. However, the total reward also includes priority fees and MEV, which scale with usage, not directly with number of validators. As Ethereum usage grows (especially if huge volumes of value are transacted, or high MEV activities like arbitrage persist), those extra rewards could be substantial. Binance analysts optimistically suggest annual staking yields could rise to 6–8% by 2027, but this likely assumes very high fee revenue being distributed. A more balanced view is that, by 2030, base issuance yield might be around 2% (at, say, over 50% participation), and additional rewards might add 1–3%, for a total of 3–5% APY in ETH terms. Note that if ETH is deflationary, even a relatively low yield could outpace inflation in real terms. And if one stakes via a liquid staking derivative, there could be further composable yields (such as lending out staked ETH). For traders, a lower yield environment might mean less incentive to stake, unless one is long-term bullish (since capital could go to other yield opportunities). But on the flip side, a consistently deflationary ETH with 3% yield starts to resemble a high-grade asset in a portfolio (such as the mix of a growth stock and a bond).

• ETH supply and issuance/burn: ETH’s supply dynamics have at times changed from inflationary (pre-2021) to net neutral or deflationary. As mentioned, some forecasts (VanEck) see supply at around 121 million in 2030 (virtually unchanged from around 120M in 2023). This assumes moderate usage and partial deflation. In high-usage scenarios, ETH could burn more than it issues, shrinking supply. We’ve already observed periods of negative issuance (e.g., during the NFT craze in 2021, as well as others). By 2035, Ethereum’s supply might be in the range of 100–120 million ETH, depending upon how often the network is congested (which triggers high burn). It’s unlikely to grow beyond 120–130M, given current parameters and expected demand. This near-fixed or decreasing supply of ETH is significant — because it means holding ETH long-term isn’t subject to significant dilution, unlike with most altcoins. That in turn could support Ether’s valuation (market cap) as scarcity increases relative to burgeoning on-chain economic activity.

Source: Ethereum Foundation

• Network revenue (fees) and economic activity: Network revenue (all fees paid) is a measure of the degree to which people value blockspace. As cited, VanEck projects Ethereum’s total annual fees plus MEV could reach $51B by 2030 in a base case. That would be an almost 20× increase from 2023 levels. If Ethereum is underpinning much of global finance (tokenized assets, etc.), tens of billions of dollars in fees is conceivable — though most fees would be on L2s, and only partially flow to L1 (still, L1 captures blob fees and some L2 proof costs). Metrics such as on-chain transfer volume (which already can hit trillions per year, when including stablecoin transfers) will likely grow multifold as well. By 2030, Ethereum might routinely settle value transfers equivalent to several percentage points of global GDP (via stablecoins, tokenized money, etc.). Another metric, TVL in DeFi — currently around $40B, as of the 2023 bear market — reached over $100B at its 2021 peak. With institutional adoption and tokenization, TVL could skyrocket into the high hundreds of billions of dollars, or more. Binance Research has speculated that better L1–L2 integration could help push combined DeFi TVL from around $1.2 trillion to $2 trillion over the coming years (though the $1.2T figure likely refers to a broad crypto market measure, since actual DeFi TVL hasn’t been that high; perhaps that amount includes total crypto market value). Regardless, if global assets move on-chain, even a fraction (say $10T of assets by 2030) would make DeFi TVLs in the trillions of dollars plausible.

• Decentralization and security: Ethereum’s Nakamoto coefficient (number of entities needed to control >50% of stake) is an important (but sometimes overlooked) metric. Right now, big staking pools (Lido, Coinbase, etc.) have significant shares. The community is pushing for more decentralization through solo staking and tech such as DVT. By 2035, if millions of validators exist, the hope is that control will be much more diffuse (no single entity could own >10% ideally). This will depend upon incentives and, perhaps, community or protocol-level actions; some participants have floated ideas such as capping pool dominance via social consensus. Security-wise, the total value of ETH staked (currently over 20M ETH) represents the economic security of the chain. If ETH’s value grows, and more ETH is staked, the chain becomes extremely costly to attack. Already, Ethereum’s economic security is second only to that of Bitcoin; by 2030, it could be the most secure blockchain if ETH’s market cap surpasses Bitcoin’s (a scenario some foresee if Ethereum’s utility drives greater demand).

• Developer and ecosystem growth: One qualitative but still data-backed metric is that of the number of developers and projects. Electric Capital’s developer report has shown steady growth in Ethereum devs year-over-year, with over 2,000 monthly active devs by some measures (and tens of thousands when including part-time devs). If Ethereum continues to be the go-to platform, these numbers should increase, or at least remain the largest. The numbers of smart contracts deployed and contract calls are another indicator, and both are likely to grow exponentially if adoption widens. By 2035, interacting with Ethereum (often via L2s or integrated apps) may be as common for an average internet user as making use of email, even if they don’t realize it (especially if platforms like social media integrate NFTs or content on-chain).

To summarize expectations: By 2035, Ethereum’s base layer will operate at high capacity but largely as a coordination and settlement layer for a vast multichain ecosystem (mostly its rollups). Key metrics like transactions and addresses may, paradoxically, not explode on L1 (since activity migrates to L2s), but aggregate usage across Ethereum-connected networks will skyrocket. ETH supply will be stable or shrinking, staking will be ubiquitous and yields will be modest but steady. Security will be hardened by a huge validator set and, possibly, quantum-resistant upgrades. Ethereum's network revenue (fees) will reflect its role as the backbone of a new financial system — potentially tens of billions of dollars annually, much of which will be returned to ETH holders via token burns or staking rewards. Many analyses from crypto research firms and investment banks support the view that Ethereum’s growth in usage will outpace even optimistic price growth, meaning more transactions, assets and real economic value on-chain, even if speculative cycles cause volatility in valuation. 

In essence, the metrics are pointing to Ethereum becoming an indispensable piece of global infrastructure by 2030, measured by the economic throughput and user base it supports.

Final thoughts

Ethereum’s projected path from 2025 to 2035 is one of profound maturation — technologically, economically and in its integration with the wider world. Over the next decade, Ethereum is set to transition into a maximally scaled, ultra-resilient base layer for decentralized applications (DApps) and digital finance. The network’s ambitious upgrades (from danksharding and zkEVM rollups to the long-horizon “Lean Ethereum” refactoring for post-quantum security) aim to ensure that Ethereum can serve billions of users and securely settle trillions of dollars in value. By 2035, Ethereum may handle transactions at web speed and scale, with most activity seamlessly occurring on L2 networks anchored to its security.

Ether (ETH) itself will likely solidify its status as the premier yield-bearing asset of the crypto economy — a kind of digital bond with equity-like upside from network usage. As Ethereum’s economic layer expands through DeFi innovation and tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), ETH stands to capture growing value — not through speculative hype, but via tangible fee revenue and its pivotal role as collateral and stake in the system. Competing L1s will ensure that the ecosystem stays competitive as Ethereum’s unparalleled developer base, early mover advantage and adaptability (embracing rollups and new tech) position it strongly to remain the L1 of choice, analogous to an open protocol standard for web3 such as TCP/IP for the internet.