Bybit Options Weekly Review: March 17-24
Week of March 17–24, 2026
I. Weekly Market Recap
The most dramatic week of Q1, with three major events converging to create a rare market stress test:
Price Action:
BTC: Weekly high $75,912 (3/21) → plunged to $68,241 (Trump ultimatum) → rebounded today to $70,645
ETH: Mirrored BTC, weekly high ~$2,350 → dropped to $2,050 → bounced to $2,180
Net weekly change: BTC -6%, ETH -7%; Fear & Greed Index fell from 28 to 11 (Extreme Fear)
Three-Event Timeline:
II. Options Market Key Data
Weekly Expiry Settlement (3/20):
BTC: 23,000 contracts, notional $1.6B, PCR 0.88, Max Pain $70,000
ETH: 176,000 contracts, notional $370M, PCR 1.04, Max Pain $2,150
Volatility Trends:
BTC Realized Volatility (RV) pulled back from ~80 to 50; DVOL ranged between 50%–58% for the week. ETH DVOL held at 65%–72%, approximately 15pts above BTC
DVOL briefly compressed after FOMC, then spiked again on the Trump ultimatum, forming a "V-shaped" volatility curve for the week
Skew (25δ):
Early this month, the Put/Call premium ratio reached 2.0 — the highest since summer 2022. Put IV averaged ~66%, roughly 17pts above Call IV, sitting at the 89th historical percentile — signaling extremely defensive market pricing
Skew recovered slightly on the "constructive talks" news, but remains negative overall with Put demand dominant
PCR Trends:
3/13 settlement: BTC PCR 0.9 (sharply down from last week's 1.70), ETH 1.21
3/20 settlement: BTC PCR 0.88, ETH 1.04 — structure trending toward neutral, but directional pressure remains externally driven
III. Macro Background
Federal Reserve (March 18th):
Rates held at 3.50%–3.75%; 2026 inflation forecast raised from 2.5% to 2.7%; dot plot maintains only one rate cut for the full year; long-run rate neutral raised from 3.0% to 3.1%
Markets are now pricing a ~35% probability of a rate hike in October — dovish expectations have completely reversed
US–Iran War (Day 23):
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply; the IEA called it "the largest global energy security challenge in history"
Brent crude surged to $111 intraweek before falling back to $100; the 5-day pause window offers short-term relief, but no ceasefire yet in sight
IV. Outlook for Next Week (3/25–3/31)
The 3/27 monthly expiry (end of Q1) is the key focus:
⚠️ BTC is currently ~$4,400 below the monthly max pain level — theoretically subject to upward gravitational pull, but requires a macro/geopolitical catalyst
Three Scenarios:
V. Trading Recommendations
Current Recommendation: Short Volatility (3/27 expiry)
Sell BTC Put $60,000-$62,000 → annualized ~10%-14%, APY ~12%-15% below spot, below February's low of $63k — only reached in extreme panic; suitable for sellers willing to accumulate at the bottom
Sell BTC Call $76,000-$77,500 → annualized ~10%-17%, APY ~7.8%-10% above spot — requires breaking above pre-FOMC highs with a major geopolitical de-escalation; currently a low-probability outcome
Risk Warnings:
US–Iran talks collapse = immediate downside breach of the $62k strike
Surprise ceasefire/deal = rapid upside breach of the $76k strike
The option market is pricing combined likelihood of these two extreme scenarios is currently below 10%. This translates to a 90% probability of earning the stated APY. However, we strongly recommend to size positions conservatively and maintain sufficient margin to weather tail events
🏆 Weekly Summary:Â
Last week's market was entirely dominated by the dual shock of hawkish FOMC signals and geopolitical escalation, with BTC's correlation to risk assets fully re-asserting itself.Â
BTC's correlation to the S&P 500 reached 89% during the 3/19 selloff — fully entering macro-driven mode.Â
In the near term, US–Iran negotiation progress is the single biggest variable: a ceasefire is a bull catalyst; a breakdown means a fresh test of lows.Â
Options sellers retain an edge in the elevated DVOL environment, but position sizing and tail-risk hedging remain non-negotiable.