Bybit Options Weekly Review: April 1–7
Week of April 1–7, 2026
I. Weekly Market Recap
Q2's first week delivered no directional clarity — BTC oscillated in a narrow band, macro headlines continued to dominate, and sentiment hit fresh cycle lows before a tentative technical bounce into the weekend.
Price Action:
BTC: Week opened ~$67,600 (4/1) → dropped to $66,800 (4/4 low) → technical bounce to ~$69,233 (4/6) → settling ~$66,950–$67,540
ETH: Ranged between $2,030–$2,138 all week; brief outperformance on 4/6 (+4.81% vs BTC +3.44%), ETH/BTC ratio recovering to 0.0309
Net weekly change: BTC roughly flat to −1%; ETH roughly flat; overall range-bound price action
Fear & Greed Index hit 8/100 — the lowest reading since October 2023, before partially recovering
Event Timeline:
II. Options Market Key Data
Weekly Expiry (4/4) — Low-Impact Reset:
Post-Expiry Options Dynamics:
The put/call ratio compressed to 0.68 from 0.91 last week. Options flow shows notable call buying in Apr–May expiries at $2,400–$2,600 strikes for ETH, suggesting institutional hedging for a potential Q2 rally.
Open interest declined 8% during the weekend bounce, suggesting short-covering rather than new longs. Funding rates remain negative at −0.003%, indicating persistent bearish positioning. Perpetual premium compressed to 0.12% annualized — the lowest since March 2024.
DVOL has partially compressed from Q1 peaks but remains structurally elevated — option sellers retain a meaningful premium advantage.
ETF Flows — Sharp April 6 Reversal
All US-listed crypto ETFs attracted $236.6M in net inflows for the week ending April 6, contributing to $529.6M in total inflows over the past month — a meaningful reversal from Q1 2026's persistent outflow trend (BTC fell 22% in Q1 despite positive March inflows).
BTC spot ETFs recorded $471M in net inflows on April 6 — the largest single-day inflow in six weeks and the strongest daily performance since February 25. BlackRock's IBIT led with $181.9M, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $147.3M. ETH spot ETFs attracted $120M in net inflows on April 6, led by BlackRock's ETHA — a sharp reversal from the $71M outflow on April 3.
Over the past three months, ETH ETFs have seen approximately $1.8B in cumulative net outflows, reflecting weaker institutional demand relative to BTC products. Cumulative BTC ETF AUM remains intact — the structural demand base has not broken, and April 6's inflow surge marks the sixth-biggest single-day total of 2026.
III. Macro Background
U.S.–Iran War (Week 6, Days 36–42):
Prediction market pricing shows the strongest probability around $55,000 at 74%, up 17%. The $50,000 level stands at 62%, and $45,000 at 49% — markets are clearly pricing in sustained downside risk.
Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed; no ceasefire framework in place as of April 7. The 8pm EST deadline tonight is the single most watched event — outcome will determine whether risk-off accelerates or a relief rally materializes.
Federal Reserve & Macro:
This week's US CPI print (Apr 10) is the key upcoming macro event — it will capture price pressures from the first full month of the war and is therefore more market-relevant than any prior inflation reading. A hot print would reinforce the Fed's hold posture and extend crypto weakness.
Fed remains on hold at 3.50%–3.75%; the most recent PCE reading (February) came in at 2.8% — keeping any dovish pivot firmly off the table. This week's CPI, however, is the first to reflect wartime supply conditions and may surprise to the upside.
BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 over the past month (Iran war period, 3-day rolling) stands at just 0.11 per Bloomberg data. This suggests BTC is currently trading more on idiosyncratic crypto flows than as a pure high-beta equity proxy. Notably, gold has also sold off alongside Bitcoin since the Iran strikes began — this is not a traditional safe-haven rotation; it reflects broad risk deleveraging.
Upcoming Catalyst — April 16:
The SEC has scheduled a roundtable for April 16 to discuss the CLARITY Act — legislation aimed at resolving which regulatory body (SEC or CFTC) will oversee digital assets. It represents a concrete step toward regulatory clarity that could reduce institutional uncertainty and unlock new capital flows.
IV. Outlook for Next Week (April 8–14)
BTC range-lock continues. $71,500 is the directional gatekeeper.
⚠️ BTC must hold $66K on any retest. ETH needs a daily close above $2,200 to confirm breakout. Current market structure favors range-trading over directional bets.
Three Scenarios:
V. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Two-Leg Approach for Current Environment
✅ Strategy 1 — Short Strangle (4/10 expiry)
✅ Strategy 2 — Put Diagonal (Continuing Framework)
Sell BTC Put $60,000–$62,000 (4/10 expiry)
Buy BTC Put $55,000 (6/27 expiry) → hold, maintain diagonal structure
The diagonal provides downside protection against a $55k tail event while collecting near-term premium on the short leg — well-suited for the current high-DVOL, directionally uncertain environment where Polymarket prices a 74% chance of touching $55k.
Strategy Update vs. Last Week:
Last week's $58k–$60k Put / $73k Call strangle: both legs expired safely ✅
Put strikes nudged up to $60k–$62k to capture tighter premium as BTC range compresses
Risk Warnings:
⚡ Tonight's 8pm EST deadline + hot CPI + war escalation = break below $66k; exit short Put immediately, let long Put ride
🚀 Ceasefire + CLARITY Act positive outcome = fast rally to $73k+; Call side faces assignment risk
⚠️ Weekend bounce on 22% below-average volume — low conviction; total sizing ≤ 60% of two weeks ago
Weekly Summary:
Q2 week 1: BTC trapped in $66k–$70k; $71,500 rejected four times. No directional conviction established.
Sentiment hit a cycle low (Fear & Greed at 8), but the weekend bounce was short-covering on thin volume — treat with caution.
US–Iran war enters week 6; situation remains highly fluid — Trump's 8pm EST deadline tonight (midnight UTC Wednesday) is the most immediate binary event. Polymarket pricing a 74% chance of BTC hitting $55k.
ETF flows shifting from systematic outflows toward near-neutral — the week's single most meaningful structural positive signal.
April 16 SEC CLARITY Act roundtable is the biggest potential catalyst on the near-term horizon.
Options playbook: Short Strangle and Put Diagonal both viable — but keep sizing light and let the $71,500 level decide the next move.