Bybit Options Weekly Review: March 25–31
Week of March 25–31, 2026
I. Weekly Market Recap
This week was defined by the Q1 end-of-quarter options expiry and a dramatic escalation-then-partial-relief cycle in the Iran conflict, culminating in a major market selloff and a cautious recovery into Q2.
Price Action:
BTC: Week opened at $71,000 (3/25) → collapsed to $65,720 (3/27 post-expiry low) → partial recovery to ~$66,290–$67,600 (3/30–31)
ETH: Week opened ~$2,182 → broke below $2,000 for the first time since mid-2024 (3/28) → recovered to ~$2,010–$2,070 (3/30–31)
Net weekly change: BTC dropped from $71,000 at the start of the week to $66,457, marking its lowest level since early March — now 47% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. ETH broke below $2,000 for the first time since mid-2024, putting it 60% below its August 2025 high of $4,953.
Fear & Greed Index: remained in Extreme Fear territory (11–14) throughout the week
Event Timeline:
II. Options Market Key Data
Q1 Quarterly Expiry Settlement (3/27) — The Week's Centerpiece:
BTC options accounted for approximately $10.2 billion of the total notional value, with ETH making up the remaining $3.3 billion. The put/call ratio across the combined open interest sat near 0.85, meaning there were slightly more calls than puts — but the spread was narrow enough that neither side had a commanding advantage.
Post-Expiry Options Dynamics:
The quarterly expiry cleared nearly 40% of open interest on Deribit. When a quarterly expiry clears, market makers unwind their hedging positions, open interest collapses, and the mechanical forces suppressing volatility dissolve almost immediately. What fills that vacuum is pure directional flow.
The demand for Bitcoin put option premiums is now much higher than for call premiums on Deribit, meaning investors are betting more on a further decline than a surge.
DVOL: Remained elevated post-expiry. ETH DVOL continued to trade ~15pts above BTC DVOL, consistent with the prior week's pattern.
ETF Flows — A Structural Warning Sign:
March 26 was the first day in 2026 where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana spot ETFs all posted net outflows simultaneously. Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $171 million on March 26, and Ethereum ETFs posted $92.5 million in outflows the same day — their seventh consecutive negative session.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $2.8B in outflows this past week. While AUM remains high at $86.92B, the consistent selling pressure from these products is a meaningful headwind for price.
III. Macro Background
U.S.–Iran War (Week 5, Days 29–35):
The options expiry coincided with the worst stretch of the Iran-Israel war for financial markets. Iran threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — on top of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since late February. Oil pushed above $103, and the gold-to-crypto rotation that had been helping Bitcoin recover earlier in March reversed completely.
Goldman Sachs warned that sustained Hormuz disruption could push crude past the 2008 all-time high of $147.50.
On March 30, Trump publicly acknowledged a regime change in Tehran — the first such acknowledgment since the conflict began five weeks ago — and demanded the Strait of Hormuz be "immediately" reopened, threatening to destroy Iranian energy and civilian infrastructure if talks fail.
Federal Reserve & Macro:
Fed remains on hold at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed's March 18 meeting revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7% — the largest single-year upward revision in recent cycles — pushing rate cut expectations further out.
Wall Street recalibrated for a "higher-for-longer" regime, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing down approximately 1% due to compressed risk appetite. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reclaimed the 100 mark, acting as a direct headwind for digital assets.
Key Structural Positive:
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $18.7 billion in net inflows during Q1 2026 despite the price correction. Stablecoin supply is sitting near a record $316 billion, suggesting capital is parked and ready to re-deploy once conditions improve.
IV. Outlook for Next Week (April 1–7, Q2 Opens)
Q1 settlement is complete. Options open interest has fully reset. Q2 begins with pure directional flow dominating price action.
⚠️ Bitcoin's $66,000 support is the key level to watch. A daily close below it could trigger a move toward $50,000, while stablecoin supply near a record $316 billion suggests capital is parked and ready to flow back once conditions improve.
Three Scenarios:
V. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Current Recommendation: Cautious Short Strangle (4/3 or 4/10 expiry)
Sell BTC Put $58,000-$60,000 → ~12% below spot, below the February low — annualized ~12%-20% APY Defensive placement, providing sufficient buffer in the event of a negotiation breakdown
Sell BTC Call $73,000-$74,000 → ~10% above spot, requires breaking through monthly key resistance — annualized ~16% APY Low probability in the current environment of sustained Hormuz closure and a hawkish Fed
collecting full premium on both sides as long as BTC stays within $58k–$74k
Strategy Update vs. Last Week:
Last week's Sell Put $60k-$62k / Sell Call $76k-$77.5k strangle: the $76k Call expired safely before 3/27 ✅, but the $62k Put came under pressure near the $65k low — signaling the need to shift the Put strike further down to $58k this week
DVOL remains elevated and structurally favors option sellers, but position sizing should be reduced by ~30% relative to last week given Q2 directional uncertainty
Risk Warnings:
Talks collapse + Bab el-Mandeb closure escalates = rapid breakdown through $62k; close positions immediately
Surprise ceasefire + Hormuz reopening = fast rally to $75k+; Call side faces assignment risk
Q2's first week typically carries thinner liquidity; volatility spikes can be exaggerated — maintain at least 150% margin buffer
🏆Weekly Summary:
Triple shock week: $14.16B quarterly expiry + U.S.–Iran war escalation (Bab el-Mandeb + Hormuz) + synchronized ETF outflows crushed BTC to $65,720 and sent ETH below $2,000.
Q1 options OI fully cleared; Q2 opens with elevated DVOL, extreme fear, but $316B in stablecoin dry powder on the sidelines.
Trump's March 30 "new regime" talks are the single biggest near-term catalyst — ceasefire ignites Q2, breakdown tests $50k–$60k.
Option sellers retain a structural edge in the high-IV environment, but keep sizing light until the diplomatic picture clears.