What is Bybit Prediction and how does it work?

The 2026 Football Finals has put real-world event trading back in the spotlight — and Bybit Prediction gives crypto users a structured way to participate. Rather than watching from the sidelines, you can trade shares based on how you think specific matches or tournaments will play out, all from your existing Bybit account. This guide explains how prediction markets work, how Bybit Prediction is structured, what market formats are available at launch and what risks you should understand before placing your first order.

Key Takeaways:

• Bybit Prediction is a feature within Bybit Alpha, powered by Polymarket, that lets you trade shares in real-world event outcomes using USDC-denominated contracts.

• Prices are set by the market, not a bookmaker — each share settles at 1 USDC if the outcome occurs or 0 USDC if it does not, with no margin or liquidation risk.

• You can exit positions early by selling your shares, but settlement timing, liquidity and dispute risks all apply.

What are prediction markets?

A prediction market is a platform where participants trade contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events. Instead of making a fixed-odds bet with a bookmaker, you buy shares in a specific outcome — and the price of those shares at any moment reflects the market's approximate market-implied probability that the outcome will happen.

If a "Team A wins" share is priced at 0.65 USDC, the market is collectively estimating a roughly 65% chance of that outcome occurring. Prices shift as new information arrives and as more participants trade. Blockchain-based prediction platforms introduced on-chain settlement, making outcome resolution transparent and automatable. Contracts are denominated in USDC, so your exposure is measured in a stable digital asset rather than a volatile cryptocurrency.

How does Bybit Prediction work?

Bybit Prediction is a feature within Bybit Alpha, powered by Polymarket. Bybit Alpha handles all on-chain interactions on your behalf, which means you do not need an external wallet, you do not pay gas fees separately and you do not need to bridge assets to another network. Bybit Alpha covers gas costs at no charge to you.

You can access Bybit Prediction on the web by navigating to Trade → Prediction, or on mobile via Trade → Alpha.

Market formats

At launch, five event market formats are available for the 2026 Football Finals:

• Match Winner: Which team wins a specific fixture

• Tournament Winner: Which team wins the overall competition

• Group Winner: Which team tops their group

• Qualify: Whether a specific team advances past a stage

• Over/Under: Whether a measurable figure (such as total goals) lands above or below a set threshold

Each market is independent. You can hold shares across multiple markets simultaneously.

How contracts are priced and settled

Each contract represents a binary outcome. When an event resolves:

• The correct outcome settles at 1 USDC per share

• All other outcomes settle at 0 USDC per share

If you hold 100 shares in a "Team A wins" contract and Team A wins, your 100 shares settle at 100 USDC. If Team A does not win, those shares settle at 0 USDC and your purchase amount is lost in full.

Polymarket's resolution mechanism determines all outcomes. Bybit does not set or influence contract prices, does not operate the underlying markets and is not the counterparty to your trades.

Order execution

All orders on Bybit Prediction use a fill-or-kill (FOK) market order type. This means your order either fills entirely at the available market price or it is cancelled — there are no partial fills.

The minimum order size is 5 USDC. You can adjust the slippage  tolerance before submitting. If the estimated execution price exceeds your set threshold, the order is automatically rejected and you can resubmit once conditions stabilize.

Exiting a position early

You do not have to hold shares until settlement. You can sell your shares at any time before the event resolves by placing a sell order on the same market. Your exit price depends on what other participants are willing to pay at that moment. Early exits are subject to available liquidity — in thin markets, you may not be able to sell at a price that reflects your view of the outcome's probability.

Fees

Bybit Prediction charges a Polymarket sports fee and a Bybit Alpha service fee. For a full breakdown of the applicable rates, see Bybit's fees article.

How Bybit Prediction compares to other products

Understanding where Bybit Prediction sits relative to other ways of engaging with event outcomes helps you decide whether it suits your goals.

Bybit Prediction vs. traditional sportsbook: With Bybit Prediction, prices are set by participant activity rather than a bookmaker's margin. You can also exit a position before the event concludes by selling your shares — something rarely possible with a fixed-odds bet once it has been placed.

Bybit Prediction vs. crypto derivatives: Derivatives like perpetual futures use mark-to-market pricing, which means your position's value changes continuously and margin can be liquidated if the market moves against you. Bybit Prediction contracts have no margin, no liquidation and no funding rates. The maximum you can lose on any trade is the amount you spent on shares plus applicable fees.

Bybit Prediction vs. DeFi prediction platforms: On most decentralized prediction platforms, you need a compatible wallet, you pay gas fees on every transaction and you may need to bridge assets from another chain. Bybit Alpha handles all of that on your behalf.

Settlement and resolution

After an event concludes, Polymarket's resolution mechanism evaluates the outcome. Settlement proceeds are credited to your Unified Trading Account (UTA) within approximately 24 hours of resolution.

Before you trade any market, read the Rules section on that market's event page. Each market has specific resolution criteria that define exactly how the outcome will be determined — including how extra time, penalties and other edge cases are handled. Disputes over the correct resolution outcome may delay settlement beyond the standard 24-hour window.

Risks and eligibility

Bybit Prediction carries several risk categories you should understand before trading.

• Outcome risk: The outcome you trade on may not occur. Shares in losing outcomes expire at 0 USDC. Your full purchase amount may be lost.

• Liquidity risk: You may not be able to exit a position at a favorable price if market depth is limited.

• Slippage risk: Fast-moving markets may cause your order to be rejected if the execution price exceeds your slippage tolerance.

• Infrastructure risk: On-chain settlement processes and network conditions can affect execution and timing.

• Regulatory risk: Access to Bybit Prediction is subject to your jurisdiction's rules, which may change.

• Dispute risk: Contested outcomes may delay or affect settlement.

There is no margin and no liquidation risk. However, unlike derivatives where losses are gradual and can be managed with stop-losses, a losing prediction contract expires at exactly 0 USDC — the loss is final at settlement.

Eligibility: To access Bybit Prediction, you must complete Identity Verification (Individual or Business) and pass AML screening. The product is available in supported regions only. Check Bybit's current list of supported countries and regions before attempting to access the feature.

The bottom line

Bybit Prediction brings event-outcome trading into the Bybit ecosystem without requiring external wallets, gas payments or derivatives knowledge. Contracts are straightforward — each share settles at 1 USDC if the outcome occurs or 0 USDC if it does not, with market-driven pricing that reflects the collective view of all participants. It is a distinct product with its own risk profile: no liquidation, no funding rates, but binary settlement that can result in a full loss of your stake.

If you are ready to explore the available 2026 Football Finals markets, head to Trade → Prediction on the Bybit web platform or Trade → Alpha on mobile. For step-by-step instructions on placing your first order, see the Bybit Prediction how-to guide.

Risk disclaimer: Prediction markets involve real financial risk. Shares can go to zero if your chosen outcome does not occur. Only participate with funds you can afford to lose. Past market performance does not indicate future results.

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