How prediction market prices, payouts and fees work
Prediction markets price outcomes differently from traditional bookmakers. Instead of odds set by a single authority, prices emerge from real buyers and sellers trading shares โ so the price you see reflects what the crowd collectively believes. Bybit Prediction is a feature within Bybit Alpha, powered by Polymarket, giving you access to Polymarket-powered markets directly from your Bybit account.
Key Takeaways:
Every share settles at either 1 USDC (correct outcome) or 0 USDC (incorrect outcome), so the current price approximates the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Bybit Prediction charges two separate fee components โ a Polymarket sports fee and a Bybit Alpha service fee โ combined and shown as one "Trading Fee" at checkout.
Orders use fill-or-kill execution: if the estimated fill price exceeds the permitted slippage threshold, the order is automatically rejected to protect you from unfavorable fills.
What does a price actually represent?
Every contract in a prediction market settles at one of two values: 1 USDC if the outcome is correct, or 0 USDC if it is not. Because of this binary structure, the current trading price of a share is an approximate market-implied probability expressed in dollar terms.If a share in the "Yes" outcome of a market is trading at 0.72 USDC, the market collectively implies roughly a 72% chance that outcome occurs. A 0.28 USDC price implies about a 28% probability.
Multi-outcome markets (for example, which team wins a tournament) work the same way. Each outcome has its own share price, collectively providing an approximate view of how the market distributes probability across the possible results.
Prices and available liquidity come from the underlying Polymarket market rather than fixed odds set by Bybit.
How supply and demand move prices
Every buy and sell order on Polymarket's order book shifts the price. When more traders want to buy "Yes" shares, the ask price rises. When more want to sell, the bid falls.The current ask and bid prices, along with the estimated entry price, are visible when you place an order. Keep in mind that trading volume over a market's lifetime does not tell you how liquid it is right now.
Why prices fluctuate
Prices move whenever new information enters the market or the balance of buyers and sellers shifts. Common drivers include:
New information: A news report, official announcement or event result changes the perceived probability of an outcome.
Sentiment shifts: Large traders entering or exiting positions move the order book.
Reduced uncertainty: As an event draws closer and outcomes become clearer, prices tend to converge toward 0 or 1 USDC.
Liquidity changes: A thinner order book means even small orders can move the price more than they would in a deep market.
Slippage and order execution
Bybit Prediction uses fill-or-kill (FOK) execution. This means your order either fills completely at the available price or is rejected entirely โ there are no partial fills. This protects you from ending up with a fraction of the position you intended. You can set a slippage tolerance before submitting an order. If the estimated fill price exceeds your threshold, the order is automatically rejected, preventing fills at a significantly worse price than you expected.
Fee breakdown
When you place an order, the confirmation screen shows a single combined Trading Fee. This is made up of two separate components calculated with different formulas.
Polymarket sports fee (3%)
Shares ร Fee rate (3%) ร Price ร (1 โ Price)This fee is proportional to the uncertainty built into the price. When a share is priced near 0.50 USDC โ maximum uncertainty โ this component is at its highest. As a price moves toward 0 or 1 USDC (low uncertainty), this fee decreases.
Example: You buy 100 shares at 0.60 USDC.100 ร 0.03 ร 0.60 ร (1 โ 0.60) = 100 ร 0.03 ร 0.60 ร 0.40 = 0.72 USDC
Bybit Alpha service fee (1%)
Order Cost ร Fee rate (1%)Order Cost is the total USDC you pay for the shares (Shares ร Price), before fees.Example (same order): Order Cost = 100 ร 0.60 = 60 USDC60 ร 0.01 = 0.60 USDC
Combined Trading Fee: 0.72 + 0.60 = 1.32 USDC
Both fee components are deducted from your order amount at execution. Bybit Alpha covers the on-chain gas costs for Bybit Prediction orders, so no separate gas fee is charged to users.
Your portfolio metrics explained
After entering a position, your portfolio view shows the following fields:
Field | What it means |
|---|---|
Shares | The number of shares you have purchased. |
Avg. Price | The average entry price of the position. |
Current Price | The current market price applicable to the position. |
Cost | The total value of the position when it was opened. |
Max Payout | The amount you would receive if your prediction is correct. |
Value | The current value of the position, calculated using the current price. Your unrealized P&L is also visible below this amount. |
From this view you can tap Buy More to add to your position or Sell to exit before the market resolves.
Payout example
You buy 100 shares in the "Yes" outcome of the 2026 Football Finals at 0.60 USDC per share.
Order Cost: 100 ร 0.60 = 60 USDC (before fees)
If correct: You receive 100 ร 1 USDC = 100 USDC in settlement proceeds โ a gross gain of 40 USDC before fees.
If incorrect: The shares settle at 0 USDC, so you lose the 60 USDC spent on the shares, plus the applicable trading fees.
When and how settlement works
After an event concludes, Polymarket verifies the outcome using its resolution process. Once a market has been resolved, payouts are typically credited within 24 hours to your Unified Trading Account (UTA). No manual claim is required.
Disputes, resettlements, maintenance or additional compliance checks may cause delays. Always review the market's resolution source before entering a position.
The bottom line
Bybit Prediction uses market-driven share prices that approximate the probability of an outcome, with winning shares settling at 1 USDC and losing shares at 0 USDC. Before placing an order, review the estimated entry price, maximum payout and both trading-fee components, as liquidity and slippage can affect your final execution.ย
Ready to put this into practice? Visit the Bybit Prediction Help Center guide to get started, or explore live markets directly in Bybit Alpha.
Risk disclaimer: Prediction markets involve real financial risk. Shares can go to zero if your chosen outcome does not occur. Only participate with funds you can afford to lose. Past market performance does not indicate future results.
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