Can Bitcoin overtake gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset?

The early months of 2025 have proven tough indeed for the stock market. After the newly elected POTUS Donald Trump was sworn in in late January, he quickly raised the issue of tariffs on imports to the US, a key pledge from his election campaign. The market reacted nervously, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 dropping 10% and 14% (respectively) between February 20 and March 12, some of the steepest declines for equities in many years.

Bitcoin (BTC) joined the stock market during the February-March slump, shedding about 18% of its value. Needless to say, the ultimate safe-haven asset, gold, gained handsomely during the slump, as often happens during periods of uncertainty and stock market corrections or crashes.

However, another major stressor awaited the markets in April 2025. Trump's “Liberation Day” executive order imposing across-the-board import tariffs on most countries ignited another sell-off in equities. Barely coming to their senses after the February-March knockdown, US stocks absorbed another major hit. Yet, on this occasion, Bitcoin reacted altogether differently — the world's leading cryptocurrency rallied strongly after April 7, posting a completely divergent performance from that of the stock market.

Bitcoin's April rally, which is continuing into early May, has led many analysts and investors to ask a novel question: Has BTC become a new kind of safe-haven asset that can protect your investment during stock market declines? And if so, can Bitcoin actually overtake gold as the safe-haven asset of choice? In this article, we’ll examine the Bitcoin vs. gold comparison through the lens of an investor looking for the optimal safe-haven asset, for now and for future bear markets in equities, which some analysts believe will be in abundance under the current White House administration.

Key Takeaways:

• During the April 2025 stock market decline, Bitcoin rallied strongly, indicating that many investors chose the crypto to protect their funds from losses in equities.

• The capital flight from stocks to Bitcoin prompted discussions of whether Bitcoin is shaping up as an emerging safe-haven asset, similar to gold.

• While gold remains the ultimate safe-haven asset, Bitcoin may be a great growth-oriented complement to it in a portfolio focused on value protection during bear markets.

Bitcoin — the emerging safe haven

Bitcoin's journey to recognition as a legitimate investment asset hasn't been easy. For years after its 2009 launch, it was largely viewed as a technology shtick with no real-world value. However, the seminal digital asset started to gain recognition in the investment mainstream amidst news of its undeniably gigantic returns.

The first notable Bitcoin bull run was the 2017 mega-rally. Having begun the year valued at around $1,000, BTC was worth $14,093 on the last day of December, a return on investment of more than 13,000%. Investors open to risk and speculation took note! 

In early 2018, Bitcoin began to lose ground, steadily shaking off its remarkable 2017 gains. Until late 2020, Bitcoin couldn’t return to these late-2017 levels, a three-year fall from grace. Consequently, investors and traders viewed it largely as extremely volatile and speculative, with little chance of regulatory acceptance into the mainstream finance world.

However, Bitcoin’s ability to thrive during periods of wider economic turbulence clearly manifested itself for the first time amidst the 2018–19 US-China trade war. Between mid-2018 and mid-2019, the US and China imposed tariffs on each other’s imports, igniting the first modern trade war between the two nations. While most markets experienced turbulence or declines, Bitcoin rallied strongly between April and June 2019, right at a time when the impact of tariffs was being felt throughout the economy.

A fundamental change in perspective

Interest in Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset skyrocketed between late 2021 and early 2024, thanks to enthusiastic institutional investor acceptance. In October 2021, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF). Then, in January 2024, the SEC provided a bulk approval for 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

As a result of these approvals, institutional investors rushed to Bitcoin, propping up its price and establishing it as a mainstream investment product.

Until April 2025, Bitcoin's reputation remained that of an extremely volatile, high-risk and high-reward asset. In recent times, it also fell largely in line with the stock market's direction as a classic, high-growth asset. But when the second Trump administration announced wide-ranging tariffs on Apr 2, 2025, named “Liberation Day,” BTC’s performance diverged notably from that of the stock market.

Major stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, declined sharply in early April, and then began a slow and uncertain recovery from those losses. In contrast, Bitcoin, after a quick dip from April 2–7, rallied strongly afterward. As of May 7, 2025, it’s up approximately 29% from a month ago.

Bitcoin's strong performance beginning in April 2025 — at a time when the stock market dealt with losses, uncertainty and dismally low investor confidence — prompted comparisons with the classic safe-haven asset, gold. The question now is: Has Bitcoin evolved into a safe-haven asset, perhaps a more volatile counterpart to gold?

Gold — the traditional safe haven

For thousands of years, gold has been valued by humans as a reliable store of value, as well as a currency. Its reputation as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and declines is well-known. One of the most actively traded assets in the financial world, the yellow metal tends to attract investors trying to protect their wealth when the stock market is sliding.

While gold has been an ultimate store-of-value asset traded worldwide for millennia, the first modern mechanism for setting its market price was first established in 1919 in London. In September 1919, five major gold bullion traders — N.M. Rothschild & Sons, Mocatta & Goldsmid, Pixley & Abell, Samuel Montagu & Co. and Sharps & Wilkins — agreed (via regular meetings or telephone calls) to set a unified market price for gold.

Gold's popularity and its standing in the global financial system were dealt a massive blow in 1933, when US President Franklin Roosevelt signed an executive order that required Americans to turn over their gold holdings to the government for a fixed price of $20.67 per troy ounce. Aside from small quantities, private ownership of gold was now forbidden. Such draconian restrictions on gold lasted until 1974, when US President Gerald Ford repealed the order; but the effective ban on private ownership of gold in the US between 1933 and 1974 severely limited trading activity for the metal commodity.

Following the repeal of Roosevelt's gold-banning executive order, gold futures trading commenced on Dec 31, 1974, on the COMEX futures exchange in New York. This signified the start of the modern era for gold trading on regulated financial markets. Once again, gold became one of the world’s key asset classes. Since then, gold has typically, though not always, had negative correlations with the stock market, and has acted as a safe-haven asset during equity bear markets.

Investing in Bitcoin vs. investing in gold

Historical performance and volatility

In recent years, both gold and Bitcoin have done well. It should be noted that investors have rarely viewed gold as a growth asset. Instead, its role has been that of a value protector during market declines. The table below shows the return rates for gold, Bitcoin and the stock market’s primary index, the S&P 500, for short-term periods (the past month and six months), as well as longer-term periods (the past year and five years). These figures are valid as of May 7, 2025, and are based on data from TradingView.

The data in the table clearly demonstrates that Bitcoin has performed better than gold (or stocks, for that matter). At the same time, gold has also done its job of protecting investment value, significantly outperforming the stock market over the past month, six months and 12 months — periods strongly affected by the recent and ongoing tariff wars ignited by the Trump administration. For instance, an average stock market investor has actually incurred small losses (of –0.7%) within the past six months, while gold investments have grown by a respectable 18% during the same period — an outstanding result in the current gloomy economic climate.

Over the long-term period of five years, gold and the S&P 500 have seen growth rates of similar magnitude (90.5% and 98.2%, respectively) during times of both market optimism/growth and stock declines (e.g., the first half of 2022, during which the S&P 500 dove 23%).

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Pros and cons

While gold has simply done its job as a hedge against stock market troubles, Bitcoin has done exactly that and more — its performance over these four analysis windows indicates that the world’s top cryptocurrency has acted as a safe-haven asset on steroids, delivering both protection against bear markets in equities and significant returns.

While Bitcoin has resoundingly beaten gold in terms of historical performance in recent years, it should also be noted that it remains more volatile than gold — with one crucial caveat: Bitcoin’s volatility over the past year (as measured by the coefficient of variation) is around 20%, while the same coefficient for gold (over the same yearly period) is 10%. 

Although Bitcoin is twice as volatile as gold, based on these estimates, these figures don't exactly paint a picture of an asset that’s wildly more volatile than gold, as many investors believe. Moreover, in the first four months since the start of 2025, the two assets have had an even smaller difference in terms of volatility — 8.3% for Bitcoin and 6.8% for gold, based on their daily prices.

Clearly, the new market realities are challenging old beliefs. Although Bitcoin remains more volatile than gold, the difference in volatility levels between the two assets may no longer be as large as it was in the past — at least during periods of significant price moves for gold, as in recent months.

Hedge against inflation

Gold has traditionally been viewed as an excellent hedge against inflation, as well as even more extreme events, such as currency devaluation. It typically retains its value or grows in times during which fiat currencies may lose their real purchasing power due to inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, hasn't traditionally been considered an inflation hedge. For all of 2022 and much of 2023, high inflation prevailed in the US. During these two years, Bitcoin behaved completely differently: it kept falling throughout 2022, but rallied strongly for most of 2023. This indicates that it may not yet exhibit one of the key properties of a safe-haven asset — the ability to hedge against inflationary value losses.

Liquidity and accessibility

Both gold and Bitcoin feature liquid and vibrant markets. However, gold's liquidity is far higher than that of Bitcoin. Daily trading volumes for gold are typically between $200 and $300 billion, while Bitcoin's are about one-tenth of these figures. Gold's market cap stands at over $22 trillion, whereas Bitcoin's capitalization is $1.9 trillion, around 11.5 times lower.

Gold is easily accessible for institutional and retail investors via brokerages that offer gold-linked ETFs and gold-based futures contracts. You can also purchase physical gold in the form of gold coins and bullion.

Bitcoin is also a relatively easily accessible asset, as long as you’re crypto-savvy. It can be traded on centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs), decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and directly through the Bitcoin blockchain via the peer-to-peer route. However, investors unfamiliar with blockchain technology (or those who prefer to stick to regulated exchanges) may find Bitcoin less accessible than gold.

Storage and security

Bitcoin is stored in crypto wallets, which are linked directly to blockchain addresses or to accounts at crypto exchanges. While holding funds in such a wallet is generally safe if you follow all the due diligence procedures, hacks and exploits do take place in the blockchain world. During such hacks, your BTC funds held in a crypto wallet might be compromised or even lost.

There are certain storage and security concerns for gold as well — at least if you invest in physical gold, rather than gold ETFs or futures. Bullion and other types of physical gold need to be securely stored. There are many gold storage providers on the market. These companies can keep your physical gold safe. However, there are fees involved for having your gold protected at these providers' secure premises. Additionally, these companies may be vulnerable to criminal activity and theft of the stored gold, although reputable providers have proven and reliable security standards.

Regulatory and market risks

Both gold and Bitcoin involve regulatory and market risks. Although gold is widely accepted in regulated markets, there might be issues with taxation arising from trading gold, particularly in the case of cross-border transactions. It should also be noted that gold is a non-sovereign asset — that is, it’s not issued or supported by governments or central banks, although they may use it as a reserve asset. Thus, gold's value is guaranteed only by market demand.

Bitcoin is much less regulated than gold. Although the US is moving toward comprehensive regulation for cryptocurrencies, a unified framework in this area still doesn’t exist (as of early May 2025). At the same time, a number of SEC-approved Bitcoin Spot and Futures ETFs provide access to the asset via the regulated environment of stock exchanges.

Similar to gold, Bitcoin is a non-sovereign asset, sometimes even referred to as digital gold. Its decentralized nature ensures independence from any government. Like gold, Bitcoin's value is derived solely from market demand.

Long-term value proposition

Gold is among the most stable and secure assets in financial markets. The precious metal tends to retain its value and rise during periods when those of growth-oriented assets decline. However, prolonged bull markets can dampen the long-term performance of gold, at least relative to other investment opportunities. Over a sufficiently long period (e.g., five years or more), we may expect the stock market to go through periods of both growth and decline. While bear markets in equities are likely to boost gold, bull runs may lead to it losing ground.

In an earlier section of this article, we noted that gold and the S&P 500 performed quite similarly over the past five years. This time interval in the US economy involved several adverse events — the stock market decline of H1 2022, high inflation in 2022 and 2023 and, most recently, market slumps in February and April 2025 caused by Trump's notorious tariffs. Thus, gold has done its job of protecting investor value over the long term during these five years. 

At the same time, although these years involved several uncomfortable periods for stocks, gold hasn't been able to outperform the S&P 500 at all, posting an 80% five-year growth rate vs. 99% for the stock market index.

Investing: Gold vs. Bitcoin

This is the whole idea behind investing in gold — it’s rarely a growth-oriented exercise, and is almost always an endeavor to protect yourself against losses.

In contrast, Bitcoin remains a growth asset, albeit one that has recently demonstrated potential to act as a safe-haven asset in times of stock market adversities. Its long-term value is also closely linked to its issuance and supply-limitation mechanisms. New Bitcoin is mined every ten minutes on the BTC network, with the release schedule subject to quadrennial halvings. 

Additionally, Bitcoin’s maximum supply is capped at 21 million. Per the Bitcoin blockchain’s rules, there will never be more than 21 million BTC in existence. However, Bitcoin will only reach this limit around 2140. Bitcoin's limited supply, regular halvings and supply capping make it a scarce asset. Even though Bitcoin may not repeat its massive gains of yesteryear, the crypto's deflationary properties will continue to support its price in the future.

Which is the safer asset to invest in?

From a safety perspective, gold remains the preferred choice. In times of bear markets and economic uncertainty, gold does its job of protecting your funds from losses. Compared to Bitcoin, it's less volatile, more liquid and better regulated.

However, your safe-haven portfolio doesn’t have to be based on a single asset. Diversifying your investment for bear markets should ideally involve both an established and an emerging safe-haven asset. Bitcoin’s latest run in April 2025 demonstrated that it can work to counter potential slumps in equities. Additionally, Bitcoin has delivered better returns than gold over both short-term and long-term periods.

As such, a prudent strategy would involve allocating some of your funds to gold as a safe, regulated, low-volatility and highly liquid asset, while investing the remainder in Bitcoin as an emerging safe-haven asset that’s high-growth and volatile, but still sufficiently divergent from stocks.

Bybit offers you three ways to invest in gold — via Gold&FX Trading, Copy Trading Gold&FX and crypto Perpetual contracts based on gold-backed cryptocurrencies (e.g., XAUTUSDT and PAXGUSDT). For Bitcoin investing, the exchange offers you several options, including One-Click Buy, Fiat Deposit, Crypto Deposit, P2P Trading, Auto-Invest and Bybit Card.

Closing thoughts

While Bitcoin, the king of digital currencies, may not replace gold any time soon as the safe-haven asset of choice, it may be a viable addition to a portfolio designed to withstand stock market troubles. Bitcoin's high-growth nature, coupled with its emerging ability to thrive at times of capital flight from stocks, positions it as a new type of safe-haven asset — one that may not rival gold's stability and security, but can nevertheless act as a great diversifier for and counterbalance to the world’s most famous precious metal. Thanks to Bitcoin, safe-haven portfolios can focus both on value protection and growth, not merely on the former.

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